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U.S. mortgage interest rates jump to 7.16%, highest since 2001

reuters.com

191–200 of 297 posts

Re: U.S. mortgage interest rates jump to 7.16%, highest since 2001

#191

Refinancing at 2.5% is the closest I have ever been to winning the lottery. I can't imagine trying to buy a house or finance a car right now, especially with dealers charging crazy ADMs. Something is going to have to give.

I wish there was a p2p lending program where I could make some cash and people with good credit could borrow for better rates than banks offer.

It's called a credit union.

Re: U.S. mortgage interest rates jump to 7.16%, highest since 2001

#192
post #95
post #63

people in the comments don't seem to realize if prices drop, you can buy and refinance later when rates come down. so it's really a great time to keep an eye on the market

When do you expect rates to come down? Prices aren't dropping that much - inflation. If you're expecting a 40% price drop anytime soon, well, don't hold your breath.

Rates will eventually settle at ~5%+ after its confirmed inflation is brought down, and then remain there. 40% may not happen but we will be back to 2019 pricing in most markets in 2023, and then back to tracking 2-6% inflationary gains. That correction is guaranteed. I'm watching my market closely and it's collapsing. 40% gains is an aggregate, not every market in the US hit that, and not all will drop that much. It could happen on the coasts, we'll see soon enough.

Re: U.S. mortgage interest rates jump to 7.16%, highest since 2001

#193

As I read the comments here, and observe discussions about housing in the media and among friends / family, I can't help but to pick up that two opposing groups start to manifest: 1. homeowners, who have total confidence in the market, willfully ignoring the influence of federal reserve policy, and everything "just work out in the long term," and 2. aspiring homeowners, who are hoping for a fall in prices, regardless…

#1 only applies to those that are either living in a home and want to use an increase in the home’s price to get more leverage to purchase a more expensive home, or for people who have multiple properties and earn money by buying low and selling high.

Otherwise, a homeowner not looking to trade up using leverage from current home’s equity is in the same camp as #2. Higher home prices simply mean higher prices for everything else (eventually), which the average homeowner is not going to like.

Re: U.S. mortgage interest rates jump to 7.16%, highest since 2001

#194

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Why only cash buyers? Even if I am borrowing money to pay for something, I would rather pay less than more.

You can win like a cash buyer if you pay a 2nd payment every year. If you plan on paying the minimum though, you definitely lose at 7% vs 3%. You are correct. As long as someone drops that extra payment monthly or yearly, depending on the amount and if you ensure it all applies to the principal with your lender.

> If you plan on paying the minimum though, you definitely lose at 7% vs 3%.

I do not agree with this, because the lower downpayment needed for lower purchase price means more of your money can be invested.

The option is not pay a low price for home and get 3% mortgage. The option is pay a high price for home (and high downpayment) and get 3%, or pay a lower price for the house, and get 7%, and I would bet you can then refinance this 7% to something lower in the coming years.

Re: U.S. mortgage interest rates jump to 7.16%, highest since 2001

#195

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Most of the people I speak to who locked in Current renters will have lower potential to save on a monthly basis, only to get 30-40% off on their first home with a >7% interest rate. If you sum the lost savings from rent plus the additional interest payment, it is uncertain whether that is the best strategy. That is also assuming real estate prices in certain regions wont hold stronger value, which they probably will…

> locked in Not just that but looking further out at retirement, downsizing and staying in the same area is not looking possible. The house might be worth $X on paper at that point but if you sell you are then thrust into a market where everything is much higher. Its financially more palatable to just stay put even if you don't need the space. I imagine people within a couple years of this decision are staying put ri…

If you are downsizing you can cash out and then buy your next (smaller) place in cash without a loan. This all assumes you aren't in California, though, where prop 13 encourages you to stay put no matter what.

Re: U.S. mortgage interest rates jump to 7.16%, highest since 2001

#196

The redistribution of workers thanks to remote friendly policies mean municipal tax revenues in large cities have dramatically fallen. To cover that shortfall, will we now see increased appraisals and support for increased property tax rates? Such things are historically a political third rail, but I wonder if increased social inequality and disgust for short term rentals may flip the script. This may also have the e…

Most county governments have a fixed levy for property tax mills. So if their target is $639 million then as tax appraisal values increase the tax per $1000 of appraised value will fall so the total property tax collected is constant. Of course as more levies are approved by voters individual property tax bills will creep up that way.

Re: U.S. mortgage interest rates jump to 7.16%, highest since 2001

#197

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I guess in my mind, short of the ultra-rich (someone with half a million plus in cash) and investment firms, the two are equivalent.

There are a lot of non-ultra-rich people close to retirement with maybe 300 or 400K they want to move away from more volatile instruments. That's what we did a few years ago and with the housing market now favoring cash buyers even more I'm tempted to repeat.

Putting a few hundred thousand in one parcel of land and structure seems a lot more volatile than a cheap broad market equity or bond or target date index fund.

Re: U.S. mortgage interest rates jump to 7.16%, highest since 2001

#198

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It's also good for buyers with low net worth, but high yearly income. I got into the tech world 5 years ago, fresh out of college. Many of my peers can afford monthly payments of $2-3k... but getting your hands on $100k cash for a 20% down payment takes time, even at decent income levels.

I've been looking at mortgages over the past couple of months, and putting 20% down has near no effect on my potential monthly payments.

The difference for most conforming loans (sold to US government) is that less than 20% down payment requires property mortgage insurance (PMI), which should add to monthly payments compared to a 20% down mortgage.

Are you seeing PMI costs? Or are they being waived for you? Or is it a non conforming loan that does not require PMI? There’s a bunch of other possible reasons on this website.

https://www.redfin.com/blog/what-is-pmi-insurance/

Re: U.S. mortgage interest rates jump to 7.16%, highest since 2001

#199

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It does however make it irrelevant. If you never plan on selling and your mortgage rate is low then you're winning on inflationary terms.

If you dont plan on selling how are you're winning on inflationary terms ? If you do sell, and the prices are higher, then you have won. If you do sell, and the prices are lower, then you have lost.

If you don't sell, the inflation makes your mortgage _relatively_ cheaper.

Re: U.S. mortgage interest rates jump to 7.16%, highest since 2001

#200

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Demand was high. It’s dropped by 50% since the peak with inventory up by over 2x from the low

Not only that, new listings are down YoY while inventory continues to grow. That's a bad combination if you want prices to continue to go up. There's so many predictions but my take is simple, the only thing for sure is that prices are not going up anytime soon again. I'm still renting as I moved around a lot for jobs. I've saved hundreds of thousands of dollars, and intend to strike in 2023. I'm still looking for de…

Many home owners can wait if their plans are flexible.

But taking it at face value, selling when prices are high is often a net-zero since you have to buy back into the same hot market (likewise, selling in a cold market can make sense if you want to upgrade into the same cold market). Selling in a hot market is only a net win for investment properties or second/third homes, and those people often can wait out cold markets (but sometimes they are leveraged like crazy and can't!).

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