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The end of Apple’s affair with China

economist.com

101–110 of 167 posts

Re: The end of Apple’s affair with China

#101

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The bulk of the parts are not coming from China. Maybe some very commodity assembly and back end steps. But the vast majority of the manufacturing value add happens in Taiwan (semiconductors) and Korea (display).

I imagined the storage and RAM also come from Korea. Though I wouldn't be surprised if the battery comes from China.

Battery and radios (wifi and LTE/5G) are produced in China from what I recall.

Re: The end of Apple’s affair with China

#102
post #80

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Like, teachers are paid 2000-3000PLN Can you please provide some sources for that claim? For example [1] says that the lowest, starting salary is already over 3000. And the salaries for teachers grow with work experience. [1] https://notesfrompoland.com/2022/10/12/polish-teachers-among...

>>Can you please provide some sources for that claim? Family who are teachers - but I guess the bottom of the scale has increased now, that's my mistake. Also observe how the top of the scale is 64578PLN/year, and according to the article, teachers reach that level in about 20 years on average. So even after working in the profession for 20 years, you don't reach the average wage for your country when working as a te…

The "average salary in Poland" you are mentioning is a very specific measurement based on companies that have 10 or more employees. This measures only a subset of workers: in particular, it does not measure the salaries of school teachers. The true average salary in Poland is lower than that.

I suspect that you do reach the average salary as an experienced teacher.

Re: The end of Apple’s affair with China

#103
post #101

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I imagined the storage and RAM also come from Korea. Though I wouldn't be surprised if the battery comes from China.

Battery and radios (wifi and LTE/5G) are produced in China from what I recall.

The radios are not produced in China

Re: The end of Apple’s affair with China

#104
post #79

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I can agree to some extent with Gaben's take. In fact, Steam has been instrumental in changing my habits because it's more convenient than the alternative. However, once you have a paid service and an unpaid service with otherwise identical convenience levels, the act of paying will always introduce that much more friction. Let's say we have that donation system with online publications. Even if it's one-click, you s…

I personally go out of my way to throw at least some money at services I use a lot assuming there are one time payments in some form. Or sometimes throw money at something I pirated before. For example, I have a lot of pirated epubs of light novels, as it's more convenient. Some authors have a donation option somewhere, where I throw some money their way, if I've enjoyed the books. I absolutely get that some friction…

To be clear, I'm not trying to assign blame here. I am pretty stingy myself. My point is simply that the argument that piracy exists or stops existing for convenience's sake makes sense in an asymmetrical situation where the legal option is less convenient or conversely becomes more convenient (Spotify, Steam, early Netflix)

In a symmetrical situation with all other things being equal, the guiding principle of piracy will be the desire to compensate the creator.

Re: The end of Apple’s affair with China

#105

Earlier quoted context omitted.

You're talking about turning a ship 10000x the size of the Titanic. A company like Apple with a CEO that built his career on logistics and production? You can be sure there's a plan. You just aren't allowed to see it.

> A company like Apple with a CEO that built his career on logistics and production? You can be sure there's a plan. You just aren't allowed to see it. This, this and THIS ! Do not underestimate Apple when it comes to supply chain management, they are the kings. Don't believe me ? Look at the COVID-induced semi-conductor shortage. Every other manufacturer out there that relies on a very strict definition of Just-In-T…

Can you recommend any sources to learn more about this?

Re: The end of Apple’s affair with China

#106

Earlier quoted context omitted.

There is the truth, as in the party wants zero covid. And there is the truth. The party wants to earn money, no matter what. So work is allowed, and ignored, just dont tell Xi and some excessive Covid measures are driven into some unimportant areas for show. The ilusion of a strong state, the same as russias military ..

If you had massive outbreaks at a factory like Foxconn’s largest in Zhengzhou which employs 300,000 people, you would have massive interruptions to production. Instead, they do extensive testing and quarantining to prevent outbreaks at a factory like that. So no, it isn’t “performative zero COVID”.

Why can't our own politicians figure that out?

Re: The end of Apple’s affair with China

#107

Earlier quoted context omitted.

That's like super naive. First, you mentioned it. "It has sure been profitable". That's kinda the whole point. You get more profits, you use those profits for R&D to further distance yourself from the competition. If there is any way to reduce your risk it is building a technological edge over competition and sizeable cash reserves. Second, even if Apple faced complete stoppage in production, its situation is differe…

> Fourth, if TSMC is unavailable they will spin the production somewhere else. Where? Intel would sell them their fabs, but they don't have a process as advanced as TSMC 5nm. Samsung might be able to compete, but their yields are wickedly low and still slightly behind TSMC. GlobalFoundries might accept Apple as a customer, but then we'd basically have two Qualcomms. What is Apple's plan-b for Taiwan?

Isn't TSMC building outside Taiwan, to your point?

https://www.tomshardware.com/news/tsmc-fab-21-arizona

Re: The end of Apple’s affair with China

#109

To me, I think that Apple's reliance on China, and Taiwan, was and is an extremely risky and misguided decision. Imagine if Apple had developed a total reliance on chip factories built in, say, Ukraine, back in 2018. That's about where we are now with Taiwan and China, I believe. It's sure been profitable - but at, I would argue, obscene risk. A few years of TSMC being unavailable would have Apple on life support. Ap…

> For those saying that can't happen, think Ukraine in 2012 or 2018. Russia? Invading? Can't happen? No one paying even a little bit of attention thought “can’t” since the invasion of Georgia in 2008. In 2012 they would have thought “has no reason to at the moment”, much as they would about Belarus today; what was unexpected in 2014 was the Maidan Revolution tossing out the Russia-aligned government, to which the inv…

All of that being said, I wrongly predicted that Russia wouldn't invade, because I rightly predicted the invasion would be a disaster for Russia.

A CCP invasion of Taiwan would be even more disastrous for the PRC. They would need to conduct an amphibious assault, gain air superiority against "the quad" (no easy task), and would be unlikely to gain control of TSMC.[0]

I think my reason for miscalculating the Russian invasion had to do with reasons unrelated to the actual military campaign: Putin felt that Russia's culture was existentially threatened by the West, its ability to invade was monotonically decreasing, and believed that a largely ineffectual, predictable US administration that appears to follow the mantra "speak loudly and carry a paper straw" wouldn't resort to extreme measures to stop Russia. In other words, invasion made total sense from a certain political-cultural calculus.

I'm much more worried about the CCP, who have become increasingly ultra-nationalist, including concentration camps and racial-superiority indoctrination in schools (including something like a "stabbed in the back" narrative). The political crackdowns have become quite severe, and the Chinese financial is in bad shape, so an attempted invasion of Taiwan may increasingly be the thing the Party sees as bolstering their position domestically.

The invasion would still be a disaster, and I have a feeling that the US & Taiwan already have plans to relocate the personnel from Taiwan's TSMC facilities to the US in order to use their specialized knowledge in order to keep producing superior chips.

[0] https://www.jonstokes.com/p/why-a-chinese-invasion-of-taiwan

Re: The end of Apple’s affair with China

#110

Earlier quoted context omitted.

You're talking about turning a ship 10000x the size of the Titanic. A company like Apple with a CEO that built his career on logistics and production? You can be sure there's a plan. You just aren't allowed to see it.

> A company like Apple with a CEO that built his career on logistics and production? You can be sure there's a plan. You just aren't allowed to see it. This, this and THIS ! Do not underestimate Apple when it comes to supply chain management, they are the kings. Don't believe me ? Look at the COVID-induced semi-conductor shortage. Every other manufacturer out there that relies on a very strict definition of Just-In-T…

I've had MBPs on 5 week+ delivery schedules.
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