Quoted post unavailable.
It must be an authorized copy, given how the way back machine works.
Also, the copy at economist.com has a non-compliant cookie popup in front of it.
Also, as the sibling points out, copying isn't theft.
The end of Apple’s affair with China
41–50 of 167 posts
Re: The end of Apple’s affair with China
#42Earlier quoted context omitted.
> The US is a huge outlier regarding salaries compared to practically anywhere else. That is obviously not true, unless you exclude a lot of countries from "anywhere else".
Ok name the countries.
All the countries in the EU:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_European_Union_member_...
Re: The end of Apple’s affair with China
#43Quoted post unavailable.
Some people lack financial understanding. They think companies can provide free content, without ads, and unbiased, endlessly, then they wonder why there is so much click bait, misinformation and low quality content.
Re: The end of Apple’s affair with China
#44Very insightful. It corrected a lot of incorrect information I had on this issues. 1. Labor cost is an issue but at 530 per month as of 2020 Chinese mfr labor is still relatively cheap and only twice as expensive as India. 2. Sales in China peaked in 2015-6 in terms of percentage of revenue for Apple 3. Despite the move, analysts predict 80% of Apple products will still be made in China by 2025.
> 1. Labor cost is an issue but at 530 per month as of 2020 Chinese mfr labor is still relatively cheap and only twice as expensive as India. Only by US standards. You can pay that much for a factory worker in eastern/south Europe. The US is a huge outlier regarding salaries compared to practically anywhere else.
From an European perspective labour in the US is cheaper
Re: The end of Apple’s affair with China
#45To me, I think that Apple's reliance on China, and Taiwan, was and is an extremely risky and misguided decision. Imagine if Apple had developed a total reliance on chip factories built in, say, Ukraine, back in 2018. That's about where we are now with Taiwan and China, I believe. It's sure been profitable - but at, I would argue, obscene risk. A few years of TSMC being unavailable would have Apple on life support. Ap…
That's a nice idea in theory. As much as I'm harsh on Apple for their decisions elsewhere, TSMC is the right choice, right now. Two things that are hard to ignore:
1. Apple held moving the Mac line on Intel for years despite clear indications that it was hurting them.
2. Intel has begun moving to TSMC to fab chips in order to be competitive with AMD who already moved.
What alternative move should Apple make? Move to Samsung, where a more expansionist China is still a problem? Start doing their own fabrication in the western hemisphere, a process that could take decades to complete.
It is likely that Apple wants to use proposed TSMC or Intel fabs in Arizona, but cannot today.
Re: The end of Apple’s affair with China
#46To me, I think that Apple's reliance on China, and Taiwan, was and is an extremely risky and misguided decision. Imagine if Apple had developed a total reliance on chip factories built in, say, Ukraine, back in 2018. That's about where we are now with Taiwan and China, I believe. It's sure been profitable - but at, I would argue, obscene risk. A few years of TSMC being unavailable would have Apple on life support. Ap…
> For those saying that can't happen, think Ukraine in 2012 or 2018. Russia? Invading? Can't happen?
No one paying even a little bit of attention thought “can’t” since the invasion of Georgia in 2008. In 2012 they would have thought “has no reason to at the moment”, much as they would about Belarus today; what was unexpected in 2014 was the Maidan Revolution tossing out the Russia-aligned government, to which the invasion was an immediate response.
And in 2018 the likelihood of further invasion was widely discussed, while the scale and precise timing may have been unpredictable in 2018, that further invasion was likely, especially an attempt to seize the Donbas, where Russia has been supporting proxy forces since the 2014 invasion, was not.
> For Taiwan, China, invading? Can't happen.
That’s... Not at all the general thought.
Re: The end of Apple’s affair with China
#47The cynical side of me senses that what would land with India and Vietnam is labor-intensive, commoditized assembly of parts. "X% of iPhones manufactured in India" is sort of misleading if the bulk of parts are still coming from China. In some ways, I think this is going China's way. They are moving up the ladder into specialized manufacturing and away from manual labor. A smart strategy considering the demographic d…
Yeah, this makes sense to me.
I have not read the linked article, but I wonder, does it discuss this?
I caught another comment lower down that says the article mentions that labour costs in India are "only 2x" less than the labour cost in China.
As if "only 2x" is "trivial"...
Re: The end of Apple’s affair with China
#48To me, I think that Apple's reliance on China, and Taiwan, was and is an extremely risky and misguided decision. Imagine if Apple had developed a total reliance on chip factories built in, say, Ukraine, back in 2018. That's about where we are now with Taiwan and China, I believe. It's sure been profitable - but at, I would argue, obscene risk. A few years of TSMC being unavailable would have Apple on life support. Ap…
That's like super naive.
First, you mentioned it. "It has sure been profitable". That's kinda the whole point. You get more profits, you use those profits for R&D to further distance yourself from the competition.
If there is any way to reduce your risk it is building a technological edge over competition and sizeable cash reserves.
Second, even if Apple faced complete stoppage in production, its situation is different from other companies. It not only can do things that other companies can't (like pull cash to build entire supply chain in some other place), it also has devout user base that will mostly just wait for Apple to come back. People who buy say Samsung laptops and phones will switch to another brand with no second thought if they can't buy Samsung, while people who buy Apple will try as much to wait and will not switch easily.
Third, the US is currently the guarantor of Taiwan's safety so maybe the risk isn't as big as you think.
Fourth, if TSMC is unavailable they will spin the production somewhere else. And who do you think will get the first chips out of it -- the companies that are the most ready (Apple, they already have all the know how and designs), the companies that are ready to pay the most for the privilege (Apple, because of their cushy margins) and the companies that have the most weight behind them (again Apple).
So no, I think that saying Apple's risk is obscene is just naive. Apple has positioned itself to be best at weathering any storm that might happen, it knows the competition will be hit even more and is using this to reap as much benefits as it can while the party lasts.
Re: The end of Apple’s affair with China
#49Earlier quoted context omitted.
> The US is a huge outlier regarding salaries compared to practically anywhere else. That is obviously not true, unless you exclude a lot of countries from "anywhere else".
Ok name the countries.
Belgium. Denmark. Sweden. Germany. All relatively competitive with US on an hourly basis.
Re: The end of Apple’s affair with China
#50The cynical side of me senses that what would land with India and Vietnam is labor-intensive, commoditized assembly of parts. "X% of iPhones manufactured in India" is sort of misleading if the bulk of parts are still coming from China. In some ways, I think this is going China's way. They are moving up the ladder into specialized manufacturing and away from manual labor. A smart strategy considering the demographic d…
Its not going fast enough. And to develop a creative class with smart products, they would have to liberalize which they cant. Cant discuss about crypto, if the stasi on the barstool next to you reports you for detention.
Subversive and disruptive industries, need a state that turns a blind eye on them , or else they will not thrive.