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The end of Apple’s affair with China

economist.com

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Re: The end of Apple’s affair with China

#31

Post by rocgf »

rapsey wrote: post #14
pcurve wrote: post #7

Very insightful. It corrected a lot of incorrect information I had on this issues. 1. Labor cost is an issue but at 530 per month as of 2020 Chinese mfr labor is still relatively cheap and only twice as expensive as India. 2. Sales in China peaked in 2015-6 in terms of percentage of revenue for Apple 3. Despite the move, analysts predict 80% of Apple products will still be made in China by 2025.

> 1. Labor cost is an issue but at 530 per month as of 2020 Chinese mfr labor is still relatively cheap and only twice as expensive as India. Only by US standards. You can pay that much for a factory worker in eastern/south Europe. The US is a huge outlier regarding salaries compared to practically anywhere else.

> The US is a huge outlier regarding salaries compared to practically anywhere else.

That is obviously not true, unless you exclude a lot of countries from "anywhere else".

Re: The end of Apple’s affair with China

#32

Post by Bayart »

rapsey wrote: post #14
pcurve wrote: post #7

Very insightful. It corrected a lot of incorrect information I had on this issues. 1. Labor cost is an issue but at 530 per month as of 2020 Chinese mfr labor is still relatively cheap and only twice as expensive as India. 2. Sales in China peaked in 2015-6 in terms of percentage of revenue for Apple 3. Despite the move, analysts predict 80% of Apple products will still be made in China by 2025.

> 1. Labor cost is an issue but at 530 per month as of 2020 Chinese mfr labor is still relatively cheap and only twice as expensive as India. Only by US standards. You can pay that much for a factory worker in eastern/south Europe. The US is a huge outlier regarding salaries compared to practically anywhere else.

> You can pay that much for a factory worker in eastern/south Europe

You'd be well bellow the gross average everywhere in the EU, even the poorest countries. Outside of the EU you might have a shot in Albania or Moldova, but you'd lack all the infrastructure and stability you'd need for large scale manufacturing.

Re: The end of Apple’s affair with China

#33

Post by rapsey »

rocgf wrote: post #31
rapsey wrote: post #14

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> 1. Labor cost is an issue but at 530 per month as of 2020 Chinese mfr labor is still relatively cheap and only twice as expensive as India. Only by US standards. You can pay that much for a factory worker in eastern/south Europe. The US is a huge outlier regarding salaries compared to practically anywhere else.

> The US is a huge outlier regarding salaries compared to practically anywhere else. That is obviously not true, unless you exclude a lot of countries from "anywhere else".

Ok name the countries.

Re: The end of Apple’s affair with China

#34

Post by LegitShady »

Bakary wrote: post #18
bzax wrote: post #10

Earlier quoted context omitted.

https://www.merriam-webster.com/dictionary/theft : "the felonious taking and removing of personal property with intent to deprive the rightful owner of it" Has the rightful owner been deprived of their property? What, exactly, is the property in question?

I pirate quite a bit but what bothers me about this reasoning is that at the end of the day the goal is to not pay for other people's labor, and the reason it happens is primarily the ease of achieving this rather than the nature of the thing in question. Whether it's specifically called theft or not has significant legal implications, but is also a moot point in an ethical and aesthetic sense.

If it doesn't matterz use the right words.

Re: The end of Apple’s affair with China

#35

Post by rapsey »

Bayart wrote: post #32
rapsey wrote: post #14

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> 1. Labor cost is an issue but at 530 per month as of 2020 Chinese mfr labor is still relatively cheap and only twice as expensive as India. Only by US standards. You can pay that much for a factory worker in eastern/south Europe. The US is a huge outlier regarding salaries compared to practically anywhere else.

> You can pay that much for a factory worker in eastern/south Europe You'd be well bellow the gross average everywhere in the EU, even the poorest countries. Outside of the EU you might have a shot in Albania or Moldova, but you'd lack all the infrastructure and stability you'd need for large scale manufacturing.

A factory worker is living on minimum wage. Nowhere near average.

Re: The end of Apple’s affair with China

#36

Post by gjsman-1000 »

rapsey wrote: post #30
gjsman-1000 wrote: post #19

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> There was no alternative at the time regarding overall production. China gave them the option to be extremely flexible and efficient. Other countries like India/Vietnam is copying the Chinese cookbook. Yes, and no. Apple has done manufacturing in America before, a long time ago (remember the Apple II?). Also with the $200B in cash they had, they could probably build every factory down to the screw factory they need…

> Also with the $200B in cash they had When exactly are you talking about? > $200B would buy at least 5 or more latest-gen chip plants, easily, or at least give TSMC all the capital they needed. $200B and a decade. Also do you think Taiwan is just going to let go of their biggest bargaining chip for a measly $200B? > If I was Tim Cook, I would have absolutely looked into segmentation. American manufacturing for Ameri…

> $200B and a decade. Also do you think Taiwan is just going to let go of their biggest bargaining chip for a measly $200B?

Not necessarily a decade. Intel is promising ~4 years for their fabs, and hoping to be online by 2025-ish if I recall correctly. Fab production is also, it seems, going quicker than expected.

> When exactly are you talking about?

In 2018, Apple's cash pile hit $285 Billion. I was underestimating it. Imagine if they had started building fabs back in 2018 or earlier - they would be coming online, potentially, right now. Which would have been great.

> I mean they are doing this as per the article.

I'm looking at geopolitics and thinking this could end up being too little too late.

https://www.cnbc.com/2018/02/01/apple-earnings-q1-2018-how-m...

Re: The end of Apple’s affair with China

#37

Post by makeitdouble »

I tried looking around to get how much of the iPhones are actually made in India and couldn’t find any clear information.

Apple seems to be relying on Foxconn’s Indian subsidiary, and it is described as an assembly partner, so I’d expect all the parts and chips to be coming from neighboring countries (so mostly China?)

It is still a pretty big deal, but my assumption would be that aside from the trumpeting headlines, Apple and Foxconn are still deeply depending on China at this point and will stay so for many years to come ?

Re: The end of Apple’s affair with China

#38

Post by [deleted] »

rapsey wrote: post #30
gjsman-1000 wrote: post #19

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> There was no alternative at the time regarding overall production. China gave them the option to be extremely flexible and efficient. Other countries like India/Vietnam is copying the Chinese cookbook. Yes, and no. Apple has done manufacturing in America before, a long time ago (remember the Apple II?). Also with the $200B in cash they had, they could probably build every factory down to the screw factory they need…

> Also with the $200B in cash they had When exactly are you talking about? > $200B would buy at least 5 or more latest-gen chip plants, easily, or at least give TSMC all the capital they needed. $200B and a decade. Also do you think Taiwan is just going to let go of their biggest bargaining chip for a measly $200B? > If I was Tim Cook, I would have absolutely looked into segmentation. American manufacturing for Ameri…

[deleted]

Re: The end of Apple’s affair with China

#39

Post by Akronymus »

Bakary wrote: post #18
bzax wrote: post #10

Earlier quoted context omitted.

https://www.merriam-webster.com/dictionary/theft : "the felonious taking and removing of personal property with intent to deprive the rightful owner of it" Has the rightful owner been deprived of their property? What, exactly, is the property in question?

I pirate quite a bit but what bothers me about this reasoning is that at the end of the day the goal is to not pay for other people's labor, and the reason it happens is primarily the ease of achieving this rather than the nature of the thing in question. Whether it's specifically called theft or not has significant legal implications, but is also a moot point in an ethical and aesthetic sense.

In the words of Gabe Newell:

"We think there is a fundamental misconception about piracy. Piracy is almost always a service problem and not a pricing problem," he said. "If a pirate offers a product anywhere in the world, 24 x 7, purchasable from the convenience of your personal computer, and the legal provider says the product is region-locked, will come to your country 3 months after the US release, and can only be purchased at a brick and mortar store, then the pirate's service is more valuable."

I personally find going to an archival site to be MUCH easier than signing up for a subscription. Also, most news outlets don't provide a way to do one time donations, so I can't throw money their way if I read some amount of articles.

So, no, for me it isn't the goal to not pay, but rather to have it be convenient.

Re: The end of Apple’s affair with China

#40

Post by shubhamjain »

The cynical side of me senses that what would land with India and Vietnam is labor-intensive, commoditized assembly of parts. "X% of iPhones manufactured in India" is sort of misleading if the bulk of parts are still coming from China. In some ways, I think this is going China's way. They are moving up the ladder into specialized manufacturing and away from manual labor. A smart strategy considering the demographic decline they are to face in upcoming decades.

On the other hand though, it would be foolish to expect the whole industry moving away from another country overnight. It would be a slow process that would start from the labor intensive parts of manufacturing. I think, it'd be a win-win for everyone, including China.

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