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The end of Apple’s affair with China

economist.com

21–30 of 167 posts

Re: The end of Apple’s affair with China

#21

To me, I think that Apple's reliance on China, and Taiwan, was and is an extremely risky and misguided decision. Imagine if Apple had developed a total reliance on chip factories built in, say, Ukraine, back in 2018. That's about where we are now with Taiwan and China, I believe. It's sure been profitable - but at, I would argue, obscene risk. A few years of TSMC being unavailable would have Apple on life support. Ap…

There are a lot of companies dependent on TSMC, not just Apple.

Re: The end of Apple’s affair with China

#22

To me, I think that Apple's reliance on China, and Taiwan, was and is an extremely risky and misguided decision. Imagine if Apple had developed a total reliance on chip factories built in, say, Ukraine, back in 2018. That's about where we are now with Taiwan and China, I believe. It's sure been profitable - but at, I would argue, obscene risk. A few years of TSMC being unavailable would have Apple on life support. Ap…

> For those saying that can't happen, think Ukraine in 2012 or 2018. Russia? Invading? Can't happen. They "invaded" Crimea in 2013, a lot of people expected what's currently happening. edit: 2014 not 2013. Also Crimea overwhelmingly supported being annexed into Russia as they were severely mistreated by Ukraine. There were very clear tensions leading up to both Crimea and Ukraine events. But using the political event…

Incorrect. Crimea was invaded in 2014. My point was that in 2012, it was 2 years before the invasion, and less foreseeable despite how quickly in the grand scheme of things it came afterwards.

Re: The end of Apple’s affair with China

#24

To me, I think that Apple's reliance on China, and Taiwan, was and is an extremely risky and misguided decision. Imagine if Apple had developed a total reliance on chip factories built in, say, Ukraine, back in 2018. That's about where we are now with Taiwan and China, I believe. It's sure been profitable - but at, I would argue, obscene risk. A few years of TSMC being unavailable would have Apple on life support. Ap…

> For those saying that can't happen, think Ukraine in 2012 or 2018. Russia? Invading? Can't happen. They "invaded" Crimea in 2013, a lot of people expected what's currently happening. edit: 2014 not 2013. Also Crimea overwhelmingly supported being annexed into Russia as they were severely mistreated by Ukraine. There were very clear tensions leading up to both Crimea and Ukraine events. But using the political event…

2014.

Re: The end of Apple’s affair with China

#27
post #21

To me, I think that Apple's reliance on China, and Taiwan, was and is an extremely risky and misguided decision. Imagine if Apple had developed a total reliance on chip factories built in, say, Ukraine, back in 2018. That's about where we are now with Taiwan and China, I believe. It's sure been profitable - but at, I would argue, obscene risk. A few years of TSMC being unavailable would have Apple on life support. Ap…

There are a lot of companies dependent on TSMC, not just Apple.

I don't dispute that - but Apple is still on the line the most of any company if TSMC were to become unavailable (in sales, in products requiring TSMC chips, lost sales, Apple Silicon on all of their devices, so forth). Also Apple had the most capital of any company and thus the least excuse for such dependency. 4 years ago, according to CNBC, they had $285 billion in cash reserves. That could've definitely bought some fabs in America that would be coming online right now.

NVIDIA still can make parts in Korea if need be, even if they are a generation behind. AMD could be manufacturing on Intel foundries before we know it. Samsung has Exynos in Korea as well, which is better than nothing.

Re: The end of Apple’s affair with China

#28

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> For those saying that can't happen, think Ukraine in 2012 or 2018. Russia? Invading? Can't happen. They "invaded" Crimea in 2013, a lot of people expected what's currently happening. edit: 2014 not 2013. Also Crimea overwhelmingly supported being annexed into Russia as they were severely mistreated by Ukraine. There were very clear tensions leading up to both Crimea and Ukraine events. But using the political event…

Incorrect. Crimea was invaded in 2014. My point was that in 2012, it was 2 years before the invasion, and less foreseeable despite how quickly in the grand scheme of things it came afterwards.

Additionally Ukraine is the breadbasket of the world, people thought Russia wouldn’t do this because of how it would mess up the food supply chain… the exact same argument being made for why China can’t invade Taiwan, too many companies rely on it.

Re: The end of Apple’s affair with China

#29
post #21

To me, I think that Apple's reliance on China, and Taiwan, was and is an extremely risky and misguided decision. Imagine if Apple had developed a total reliance on chip factories built in, say, Ukraine, back in 2018. That's about where we are now with Taiwan and China, I believe. It's sure been profitable - but at, I would argue, obscene risk. A few years of TSMC being unavailable would have Apple on life support. Ap…

There are a lot of companies dependent on TSMC, not just Apple.

[deleted]

Re: The end of Apple’s affair with China

#30
post #16

Earlier quoted context omitted.

There was no alternative at the time regarding overall production. China gave them the option to be extremely flexible and efficient. Other countries like India/Vietnam is copying the Chinese cookbook. Ony TSMC is capable of producing the most performant chips.

> There was no alternative at the time regarding overall production. China gave them the option to be extremely flexible and efficient. Other countries like India/Vietnam is copying the Chinese cookbook. Yes, and no. Apple has done manufacturing in America before, a long time ago (remember the Apple II?). Also with the $200B in cash they had, they could probably build every factory down to the screw factory they need…

> Also with the $200B in cash they had

When exactly are you talking about?

> $200B would buy at least 5 or more latest-gen chip plants, easily, or at least give TSMC all the capital they needed.

$200B and a decade. Also do you think Taiwan is just going to let go of their biggest bargaining chip for a measly $200B?

> If I was Tim Cook, I would have absolutely looked into segmentation. American manufacturing for American customers, Chinese manufacturing for European/Asian customers, Indian manufacturing for Indian customers.

I mean they are doing this as per the article.

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