Hacker News Board Hacker News, browsed like a classic message board
Live data from Hacker News

Ask HN: Is the world going to shit?

news.ycombinator.com

Post reply on HN
Print view View original

51–60 of 139 posts

Re: Ask HN: Is the world going to shit?

#51

Post by mch82 »

Regarding technology as a savior—it isn’t, but it can help.

Steve Jobs described the computer as “a bicycle for the mind”. Bicycle technology allows a human to move faster than a cheetah (https://www.travelwriter.nl/english-blog-faster-than-a-cheet...). Computers help people think and compute faster than an organic brain. However, the human must *choose* to use the technology. That’s a social choice. Human problems are social problems. I do believe we have adequate technology to bring the world into an age of prosperity. But it will only happen if we choose, as a society, to do it.

For a variety of reasons, I don’t think giving up technology to pursue a low tech / no tech society would be helpful. Often, low tech solutions actually make things worse when applied at scale with as many people as we have.

Re: Ask HN: Is the world going to shit?

#52

Post by andrepd »

People are naturally averse at recognising issues which require them to take actions that might impact, however slightly, the lifestyle that they have grown used to. They will prefer to dig their head in the sand and keep driving towards much bigger problems rather than take moderately inconvenient action now.

This is a behavioural/psychological flaw that prevents necessary action from being taken.

Re: Ask HN: Is the world going to shit?

#53

Post by gruez »

RhodesianHunter wrote: post #7
Forge36 wrote: post #5

I am a firm believer that the world has always being going to shit. It's called change and accepting that has made life much more bearable. While change is increasingly happening faster, the changes are (mostly) smaller. We're in one of the longest periods of “peace time“ and threat of war/death continue to decrease (while not evenly distributed that's not a reason to lose hope).

I wouldn't call the changes "smaller". Climate change is an existential threat. Possibly the greatest one we've ever faced, certainly the greatest since WWII and so far we're definitely NOT rising to the occasion.

Climate change might be the greatest challenge we've ever faced, but it's hardly an "existential threat" (ie. something that threatens our existence). Even under the worst IPCC forecasts, there won't be enough land lost (eg. by flooding or desertification) to wipe out humanity. Don't get me wrong, billions dying or displaced would be a humanitarian disaster of epic proportions, but isn't something that threatens our existence.

Re: Ask HN: Is the world going to shit?

#54

Post by gruez »

mberning wrote: post #36

I think it will be organic. I’ve severely curtailed my discretionary spending. The restaurants suck now, bad service and low quality food for a high price. Bars are barely open during adult hours, many being closed at 8 or 9pm. Theaters, concerts, and sporting events seem to run on a skeleton crew of people that are clueless. It’s time to walk the walk. Plenty of people have a doomer mindset about the future. Prepare…

> I think it will be organic. I’ve severely curtailed my discretionary spending. The restaurants suck now, bad service and low quality food for a high price. Bars are barely open during adult hours, many being closed at 8 or 9pm. Theaters, concerts, and sporting events seem to run on a skeleton crew of people that are clueless.

Given that we're in an economic downturn/recession, it's really hard to use what you said as evidence for degrowth, which implies some sort of long term phenomena rather than a 1-2 year thing.

Re: Ask HN: Is the world going to shit?

#55

Post by Eddy_Viscosity2 »

imgabe wrote: post #18

> there's no way of our GDP keeps growing indefinitely while reducing our ecological footprint. Yes there is. We are vastly ineffecient with our use of energy. Fusion power, better use of solar, wind, geothermal power, better energy storage. The amount of solar hitting the Earth every day is several orders of magnitude larger than what is needed to run society at our current level. There is no shortage of energy, onl…

The indefinite growth theory is discussed in this chance meeting of an economist and a physicist.

"Alright, the Earth has only one mechanism for releasing heat to space, and that’s via (infrared) radiation. We understand the phenomenon perfectly well, and can predict the surface temperature of the planet as a function of how much energy the human race produces. The upshot is that at a 2.3% growth rate, we would reach boiling temperature in about 400 years. And this statement is independent of technology. Even if we don’t have a name for the energy source yet, as long as it obeys thermodynamics, we cook ourselves with perpetual energy increase."

https://dothemath.ucsd.edu/2012/04/economist-meets-physicist...

Re: Ask HN: Is the world going to shit?

#57

Post by markles »

Animats wrote: post #29

We're in a period of really bad leadership of the major world powers. It's like the runup to WWI, which was probably peak stupid. Technically, things are looking pretty good. Energy is a problem only in the near term. Solar, wind, and batteries are so cheap that massive deployment is happening for purely economic reasons. Population is leveling off. Computing is in good shape.

To add a counter to this, I'd say technically things are looking pretty bad. The population is expected to grow by 2 billion people in the next 30 years, so I wouldn't call that leveling off. With the degradation of, and simultaneous need for more arable land, food supplies could become an issue, especially if we see more things like the Russia-Ukraine war take place. We'll have fished out most of the ocean in that same period of time. We're also running out of fresh water in areas we need it as we drain aquifers and winter snow pack declines.

Arable land under threat -https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S00139...

Fish stock collapse -https://news.stanford.edu/news/2006/november8/ocean-110806.h...

Lack of fresh water -https://www.bbc.com/future/article/20170412-is-the-world-run...

There are many other things, such as the continued reliance on fossil fuels and still increasing demand for crude, coupled with a lack of new oil exploration.

Re: Ask HN: Is the world going to shit?

#58

Post by bryanlarsen »

The iPhone 12 is smaller than the iPhone 11. Does anybody think that it is worse for that reason?

If you buy a Ford Lightning instead of a gasoline truck and fuel it with solar power, you might use 50 tons or so less gasoline. Is that worse?

We're a community mostly built on software. A new game may provide massive entertainment on a very minimal footprint.

Sure the population cannot grow indefinitely, but it is predicted to stabilize soon.

The economy can grow indefinitely. Dollars are just bits in a computer, and so is a large fraction of our economy.

Re: Ask HN: Is the world going to shit?

#59

Post by GekkePrutser »

gruez wrote: post #53
RhodesianHunter wrote: post #7

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I wouldn't call the changes "smaller". Climate change is an existential threat. Possibly the greatest one we've ever faced, certainly the greatest since WWII and so far we're definitely NOT rising to the occasion.

Climate change might be the greatest challenge we've ever faced, but it's hardly an "existential threat" (ie. something that threatens our existence). Even under the worst IPCC forecasts, there won't be enough land lost (eg. by flooding or desertification) to wipe out humanity. Don't get me wrong, billions dying or displaced would be a humanitarian disaster of epic proportions, but isn't something that threatens our…

Exactly, it does always irk me when people call it an existential threat to humanity. That's not to say it isn't a huge problem. But it won't wipe us out. Some areas will also become more habitable (eg Siberia)

The mass migration of people across borders as a result of climate change might cause wars that are such a threat though. But still I don't consider climate change itself as such.

Re: Ask HN: Is the world going to shit?

#60

Post by [deleted] »

gus_massa wrote: post #41
barbariangrunge wrote: post #16

Earlier quoted context omitted.

This period of peace time is, admittedly, because world war 3 will end human life on earth and it’s making leaders slightly more shy than usual It doesn’t even have to be a world war. It will only take 1 nation to make the choice We’re one mistake from extinction

Note that the "nuclear winter" will not be as initially imagined. It will be bad, very bad, but not extinction level bad https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nuclear_winter#Criticism_and_d...

[deleted]
Post reply on HN