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AI will replace middle management before robots replace hourly workers

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Re: AI will replace middle management before robots replace hourly workers

#311

Post by TheLoafOfBread »

trashtester wrote: post #293
TheLoafOfBread wrote: post #258

Earlier quoted context omitted.

In theory we don't need testers for program testing, we just need an AI to do it. But it is easier to say it, than to implement it.

I suspect it is easier to automate the programmer than the person doing/defining the tests. I would argue that "programming" in essence is first and foremost the task of defining a set of actions or functions you want a computer to perform. This can be highly detailed (like assembly) or quite abstract (like SQL), and with AI you may even end up being able to just use English. You will still need to check that the out…

I was thinking about automation of programming and I have usually come to a conclusion that when AI will crap out X thousands lines of code, how are you going to debug it when it does not do what do you want it do? How are you going to debug code which you did not write so you don't exactly know what is going on?

Additionally when you point out to AI what is wrong, how can you be sure, that AI has fixed the root cause or just made some fixes about that specific appearance of the bug, but it means that bug will pop up somewhere else?

Re: AI will replace middle management before robots replace hourly workers

#312

Post by bluGill »

trashtester wrote: post #296
wefarrell wrote: post #45

This reminds me of an argument I got into at a bar with someone who claimed robots would inevitably replace bartenders. I took the view that bartenders would be the last occupation to be replaced by robots because if the goal was to minimize the cost to consume alcohol people wouldn't be coming to bars in the first place. There's a misconception that jobs with higher pay and more prestige will be the last to be repla…

> I took the view that bartenders would be the last occupation to be replaced by robots because if the goal was to minimize the cost to consume alcohol people wouldn't be coming to bars in the first place. For a traditional bar, I agree. In places where the "bar" is not the primary attraction, such as sports arenas, concert halls or even some types of night clubs, the bar may be just a bottleneck where you may have t…

In a traditional bar the robot will mix drinks, while the bar tender talks. A few bartenders have mixing the drink part of their act, but the rest don't need to pour drinks.

Science fiction had long suggested bartenders have a degree in psychology or some such field as realistically that is what they are, just not paid / trained like the medical profession it is

Re: AI will replace middle management before robots replace hourly workers

#313

Post by 52-6F-62 »

spaceman_2020 wrote: post #61

Not going to happen. In 5 years, the current AI hype will be the same as the state of 3D Printing, IoT, AR/VR. There is a fundamental disconnect between tech bros’ dreams and reality. These dreams have an outsized expectation of the tech-literacy of the average person. They also make the mistake of completely assuming that human decisions are driven by logic, not emotion.

Further, that somehow the reality is inferior to their other imagined, autocratic world.

Re: AI will replace middle management before robots replace hourly workers

#314

Post by bioemerl »

We should really be focusing on making it easier for people to do their jobs, not replacing them.

In the end they are the same thing, but it's way easier and more accomplishable to slowly improve a person's productivity than it is to remove the human brain from the system.

Re: AI will replace middle management before robots replace hourly workers

#315

Post by bluGill »

Maybe, but remember most hourly workers have been automated out of a job over the previous decades. What is left are the hard to automate jobs. My company produces more product than ever on about a tenth of the hourly workers we had in 1950. Easy management jobs will be automated away, but that will leave the hard ones.

Re: AI will replace middle management before robots replace hourly workers

#316

Post by clavalle »

AI will enhance middle management and make things easier, but people problems are complex in a way that AI is a loooooong way off from understanding.

Once they figure that out, it's time for us to kickback, relax, and enjoy the ensuing utopia and/or apocalypse.

AI is far more likely to replace upper management and executive levels, especially in large corporations, since those roles are a lot more 'by the numbers' and act on probabilities rather than specific, nuanced, and complex instances.

Re: AI will replace middle management before robots replace hourly workers

#318

Post by keepuncovering »

I don't agree 100% with that but there's some truth in it. we will get more Github co-pilot like products to do lot of data organization summarization and predictive work. And then humans will do the nuanced decision making and narration. so yes less # of people needed but you people STILL needed. People will be expected to wear lot of hats. "Oh I am Operations Manager" No sir you are not, you are also expected to drive product development and your people development. No bullshit departments like Product or HR Management would exist within a decade. People are going to be judged purely on raw critical thinking skills. Not the COlleGe they went to ExPErienCe they have

Re: AI will replace middle management before robots replace hourly workers

#319

Post by trashtester »

TheLoafOfBread wrote: post #311
trashtester wrote: post #293

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I suspect it is easier to automate the programmer than the person doing/defining the tests. I would argue that "programming" in essence is first and foremost the task of defining a set of actions or functions you want a computer to perform. This can be highly detailed (like assembly) or quite abstract (like SQL), and with AI you may even end up being able to just use English. You will still need to check that the out…

I was thinking about automation of programming and I have usually come to a conclusion that when AI will crap out X thousands lines of code, how are you going to debug it when it does not do what do you want it do? How are you going to debug code which you did not write so you don't exactly know what is going on? Additionally when you point out to AI what is wrong, how can you be sure, that AI has fixed the root caus…

I agree, and I didn't mean to imply that it's easy to automate programming, just that it's even harder to automate the creation of test criteria.

Then again, these things don't need to be all-or-nothing. If you consider GitHub Copilot, and where it can be 10 years from now, I would not be surprised if it can double the productivity of most programmers by something closer to pair programming than a code review process.

Re: AI will replace middle management before robots replace hourly workers

#320

Post by zby »

snowwrestler wrote: post #39

What does chess have in common with retail middle management? As someone who has managed a retail store and played chess, I can confidently answer: nothing. Remember when Watson beat Ken Jennings at Jeopardy? And then IBM saturated the airwaves with ads about how Watson was going to revolutionize industries like energy and health care? Notice how we don’t see those ads anymore? It’s because winning Jeopardy has nothi…

I did not read the article - but here is an idea: much of middle management is translating a higher level plan into lower level details. The ideal for the translation is to be as faithful as possible. This is like a compiler!
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