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Even after $100B, self-driving cars are going nowhere

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Re: Even after $100B, self-driving cars are going nowhere

#411

Post by itsoktocry »

cs702 wrote: post #206
bastawhiz wrote: post #198

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I'm genuinely curious why you think Tesla is ahead compared to Waymo and Cruise. Autopilot struggles in my car on some fairly boring roads, while Waymo and Cruise are both operating real taxi services in vehicles without drivers. I can understand the argument that Tesla has lots of data from real world driving. But Google also has fleets of cars mapping out every road in the world.

Please keep in mind that I'm talking about FSD Beta, not the current production software, which is dozens of versions behind. Are you on Beta 10.69.2.3? If I had to articulate my reasons: * Judging by the videos available online, my perception is that many situations that were impossible for Tesla FSD Beta a year ago have become uneventful in recent weeks. Take a look at Chuck Cook's videos for example (I like the fa…

>haven't seen anything like it from anyone else.

Have you considered that other companies don't make it a priority to market these things? Elon knows his audience: people who will go on message boards and talk about it. Most people don't care about the underlying AI tech.

Do you think the other companies aren't making any breakthroughs? How do they have Robotaxis then?

Your entire claimed expertise seems to come from YouTube promotional videos. Maybe take a step back from marketing hype.

Re: Even after $100B, self-driving cars are going nowhere

#412

Post by itsoktocry »

cs702 wrote: post #242
cypress66 wrote: post #235

Earlier quoted context omitted.

As someone who also likes to watch Chuck Cook, I don't think Tesla is close to waymo. Tesla fsd in its current state will either crash or do some serious fuck up if you let it unattended for a few hours or maybe less (based on the disengagements in those videos). Forget about driverless Tesla with the current fsd. Waymo has been operating driverless since 2019. I do agree that it is progressing very nicely. Imo tesla…

I've yet to see how Waymo and other self-driving systems perform in open-ended testing, outside tightly restricted, geofenced environments. Otherwise, I agree that Tesla FSD Beta has been progressing nicely. I don't know if it will take 1, 2, or 5 years to get FSD Beta to an acceptable rate of graceful failures, but I agree it looks likely to get there before the end of the decade!

>I've yet to see how Waymo and other self-driving systems perform in open-ended testing, outside tightly restricted, geofenced environments

But you have seen how Tesla performs in such environments, and you aren't allowed to take your hands off the wheel.

What makes you assume Tesla has the right approach and the other have companies have to be measured against it?

Re: Even after $100B, self-driving cars are going nowhere

#413

Post by itsoktocry »

cs702 wrote: post #241
dontreact wrote: post #232

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I'd sum up your points 1,2,3 as "more data". This would be a reason to think they can one day be ahead if they can take advantage of this, but not evidence that they are currently ahead. Occupancy networks: waymo has published research on this before Tesla announced this at AI day (not clear to me who got there first though https://arxiv.org/pdf/2203.03875v1.pdf ) Tesla's Dojo -> Waymo has TPUs to train on To me all…

> I'd sum up your points 1,2,3 as "more data". This would be a reason to think they can one day be ahead if they can take advantage of this, but not evidence that they are currently ahead. I'd sum up those three points as "more data and more real-world, open-ended, large-scale testing by regular people." Big difference. > Occupancy networks: waymo has published research on this before Tesla announced this at AI day (…

You think it's actually "safety score" and not Tesla protecting their brand by restricting who gets to demonstrate the system?

Maybe you should consider that when watching YouTube videos of people using it....

Re: Even after $100B, self-driving cars are going nowhere

#414

Post by itsoktocry »

mrb wrote: post #304
jeffbee wrote: post #290

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I really feel that you have been duped here. There is no reason to believe that Tesla Dojo even exists. At Hot Chips last year they showed some 3D renders of their supposed board. At Hot Chips this year they showed the same renders. At "AI Day" last month they showed a retarded humanoid robot. We have no basis to conclude that Dojo does, can, or will exist.

Dojo does exist. There are real-world pictures of it: https://media.datacenterdynamics.com/media/images/training_t... source: https://www.datacenterdynamics.com/en/news/tesla-details-doj... However, to my knowledge, Tesla is still in the "bring up" step. I think that was a mistake to pack 25 dies on a single system-on-wafer. Very hard to cool.

That's just a picture of a testing rig set up on a workbench. It's the same picture in both articles. Classic Tesla.

Do you think the minisub and Tesla ventilators also existed?

Re: Even after $100B, self-driving cars are going nowhere

#415

Post by Retric »

subroutine wrote: post #374
Retric wrote: post #343

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I think (2) is more cultural than that. People reacted poorly to automatic elevators when they where first introduced and now people just don’t think about them as much more complicated than a light switch. The elevator broke and my light broke have the same feel of an inanimate object not working even though elevators are a lot more complicated.

I'm not sure if "the breaks on the train failed" and "the train's ai suddenly decided to start running in reverse" would get the same reception even if the result was the same.

Yea that feels different. I kind of want to say odd accidents definitely get attention or something, but I don’t have anything to back it up.

Yet aircraft autopilot fails, pilot error, and mechanical error seem to all get the same attention. That might be because the pilots are also at fault for autopilot issues, or it could be autopilot used to be really really dumb so there was a lot of stories that autopilot flying into a mountain etc to prep people with how dumb it was or it could be something else.

If that makes sense?

Re: Even after $100B, self-driving cars are going nowhere

#416

Post by otabdeveloper4 »

cs702 wrote: post #185

In the short run, technological progress is much slower than anyone hopes, but in the long run it is much faster than anyone expects. My favorite example is that in 1987, the scientific consensus was that it would take "at least 100 years" and likely much longer to sequence the entire human gnome.[a] But the vast majority of it was sequenced by 2000, only 13 years later. Moreover, just two decades later, anyone could…

Self-driving cars aren't a technological problem.

We have had self-driving trains and self-flying planes for decades. Despite this, train operators and airplane pilots aren't going away, and, if anything, are becoming even more important professions.

That's because they're in the "providing security" business, not in the "operating machinery" business. We pay pilots to take responsibility so passengers feel safe.

It's exactly the same for cars and trucks. The self-driving car racket is a scam, because they're not solving the actual problem society wants solved.

Re: Even after $100B, self-driving cars are going nowhere

#417

Post by itsoktocry »

Salgat wrote: post #305
bastawhiz wrote: post #198

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I'm genuinely curious why you think Tesla is ahead compared to Waymo and Cruise. Autopilot struggles in my car on some fairly boring roads, while Waymo and Cruise are both operating real taxi services in vehicles without drivers. I can understand the argument that Tesla has lots of data from real world driving. But Google also has fleets of cars mapping out every road in the world.

Aren't Waymo and Cruise constrained to specially tailored cities? Autonomous driving that can be activated literally anywhere in the country is far more impressive, even if it has cases where it doesn't perform as well.

To me actual driverless cars are more impressive than FSD which doesn't allow me to take my hands off the wheel, yes.

Re: Even after $100B, self-driving cars are going nowhere

#418

Post by concordDance »

c-cube wrote: post #215
concordDance wrote: post #46

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I dunno, being able to easily get places (to visit or work or have fun) is pretty important. Time is finite and valuable, so things that less us spend time in more satisfying ways are valuable.

Denser cities and electric bikes would go a long way. But somehow in the US people only want to go places in a deadly metal box, even to fetch bread.

Dense cities mean no gardens and no house renovations, both have value too, even if they arent as important.

Cars are also nice for shopping and taking things to the dump.

Re: Even after $100B, self-driving cars are going nowhere

#419

Post by concordDance »

presentation wrote: post #140
concordDance wrote: post #50

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Doesn't allow point to point. I lose about 5 hours a week due to cycling and using public transport.

Then public transit should be built to wherever you live. given the amount of investment to self driving cars and maintenance of roads that are way bigger than they should be, we could be using that capital for transit.

I live in the UK, investment in giant roads and self driving cara isn't a thing here, but the gov still consumes half of gdp.

Re: Even after $100B, self-driving cars are going nowhere

#420

Post by dx034 »

andrepd wrote: post #85
paganel wrote: post #74

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Not all driving outside city areas happens on the highways. My brother lives in the countryside (somewhere in the EU), and, as a driver, he shares the paved road just outside his house with the village’s cows (including his two cows). I don’t see any non-AGI system being able to negotiate that, as at times is difficult even for me, a reasonably AGI system, to make sense of it all when I encounter a herd of loose cows…

Sparsely populated rural areas are really the only place where personal autos make sense. Long distance highway travel is better serviced by train. And transportation inside the city is better serviced by literally anything except a car (bikes, e-bikes, subway, trams, scooters, walking).

Having kids makes car sharing very unattractive. Finding car sharing with enough (and high quality) car seats can be quite challenging. And as much as I like public transport, with kids using the car is often much faster.
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