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Even after $100B, self-driving cars are going nowhere

bloomberg.com

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Re: Even after $100B, self-driving cars are going nowhere

#161

Post by wolframhempel »

harry8 wrote: post #157
wolframhempel wrote: post #147

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I think the goal is to solve public transport by having a fleet of autonomous vehicles that pick you up where you are and drop you off where you need to go and would roam freely in between - basically driverless, electric ueber. As cars need charging, they would congregate at some charging plot outside the busy areas. Personally, I rather like this vision as it combines the best of public transport and car traffic. E…

I too rather like rainbows, unicorns, chocolate waterfalls and free happiness growing on trees as a solution to all problems.

I feel that this one is a rather realistic solution. It uses existing technology (cars), existing infrastructure (streets) and existing data infrastructure (cloud providers) to solve a massive problem. The "only" thing that's missing is the self driving part (the only being in very large quotes of course).

This means its much less of a stretch to get this scenario working than proposals like Hyperloop, Flying Taxis or other things that require a lot more innovation and infrastructure work before they become feasable.

Re: Even after $100B, self-driving cars are going nowhere

#162

Post by themitigating »

Lutger wrote: post #106

Huge waste of money that could have been poured into public transport to actually solve our problems and improve our lives. What a tragedy.

It's not government money for the most part, these companies would not have put it into public transportation if they didn't work on self driving cars

Re: Even after $100B, self-driving cars are going nowhere

#163

Post by dm319 »

benj111 wrote: post #144
paganel wrote: post #74

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Not all driving outside city areas happens on the highways. My brother lives in the countryside (somewhere in the EU), and, as a driver, he shares the paved road just outside his house with the village’s cows (including his two cows). I don’t see any non-AGI system being able to negotiate that, as at times is difficult even for me, a reasonably AGI system, to make sense of it all when I encounter a herd of loose cows…

Sheep are worse. They run from one side of the road across you to get away from you.

Add to that the vagueness of where the road ends and field/bank begins for many country roads.

Re: Even after $100B, self-driving cars are going nowhere

#164

Post by rtpg »

kenjackson wrote: post #122
_dain_ wrote: post #33

Earlier quoted context omitted.

And then in those safe geofenced locations we could put down metal guide rails so that navigation is easier. And then use metal wheels with flanges to reduce rolling resistance. And then hook many cars together into one long vehicle. And ...

That would be great. But the minute I have to get out of my car to get in another vehicle to then get in another car at my “destination” then you’ve lost me.

Car rental services, taxis, buses, bikes, just having the station nearby. There are a billion options beyond “bring your own car”

Re: Even after $100B, self-driving cars are going nowhere

#167

Post by TheOtherHobbes »

onlyrealcuzzo wrote: post #133
Lutger wrote: post #106

Huge waste of money that could have been poured into public transport to actually solve our problems and improve our lives. What a tragedy.

I'm about as big of a fan of mass transit as you can get, but this is completely overblown. That's $1Bn for the hundred largest cities in the world. Assuming even 40% of that went to the US, that's $1Bn for the top 40 cities. That leaves out 22 entire states [0], and like 75% of the population... Look to NYC, LA, and SF for what $1Bn gets you... It's about 1 mile of subway [1]. And it takes close to 15 years to build…

How far has the $100bn spent on self-driving cars moved the needle?

Re: Even after $100B, self-driving cars are going nowhere

#168

Post by BlargMcLarg »

wolframhempel wrote: post #158
BlargMcLarg wrote: post #155

Earlier quoted context omitted.

This isn't going to work for the most obvious case: rush hour. Which is the case that is the root cause of most issues. If you're still stuck with peak road usage nearly equivalent to that today, your goal isn't to solve prominent issues today.

I guess it's just a question of capacity. If you can cram a lot of travelers into a subway train during rush hour, you could just as well imagine an uber pool type function where clever route finding combines riders into a single car during rush hour.

Carpooling failed because people prefer having everything under control in the face of how cheap car-based travel is already. Thinking self-driving cars will fix a luxury problem is a pipedream.

Whether it is self-driving with an incredibly optimized algorithm (good luck with that) or manual carpooling, the same problems are still going to bubble up. The solutions already exist. We, as a society, just don't want to deal with the consequences.

Re: Even after $100B, self-driving cars are going nowhere

#169

Post by Fricken »

n0tth3dro1ds wrote: post #137
Fricken wrote: post #110

Earlier quoted context omitted.

If you're relying only on cameras, then yes, that's an issue. Level 4 vehicles can locate themselves without the need for lines on the road. Everything has been carefully mapped out ahead of time.

> Everything has been carefully mapped out ahead of time This doesn’t scale. This is also how Zoox, Tesla, and Cruise do their demo videos to scam more money out of investors: they collect ultra-HD maps in a very narrow area or a very specific route. Then they drive the route/area about a thousand times, recording each drive. Then they upload the drive with the fewest mistakes to YouTube. Just like me taking a thousa…

Many of the original Google self-driving car project members came over directly from Google Street view, which has since scaled all over the world. Autonomous vehicles have big scaling issues, but it's not the maps holding them back.
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