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How much have tech layoffs affected engineers vs. other departments?

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Re: How much have tech layoffs affected engineers vs. other departments?

#201

Post by guynamedloren »

jcadam wrote: post #157
no_wizard wrote: post #58

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I'm seeing a massive uptick in recruiting for contract roles compared to a year ago though. A year ago (and even, 3-4 months ago) it was all full time positions nearly exclusively, now it's all heavily weighted toward contract Lots of "18+ month" or "long term" contract verbiage, but contract none the less. Definitely a shift. Seeing more contract to hire too

Contract rates are down though, less than what you would expect to earn as a FTE.

I’m intrigued. Can you share any data points here?

Re: How much have tech layoffs affected engineers vs. other departments?

#202

Post by mgkimsal »

Raydovsky wrote: post #134
andirk wrote: post #100

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I tell people that you are looking for _one_ position, not 10,000. There will always be a position somewhere that fits your needs. Its more difficult in down times to a degree. And if your industry is in a huge slump, find a new industry! There's more work to do than can ever be done.

I wish that was the case, but my experience is that there are fewer PHP jobs. Switching a stack won't help cos places want years of experience.

This may not help immediately, and I know the landscape has changed in many areas, but years ago, I went to multiple different tech groups and conferences - java, ruby, perl, ms/.net. I introduced myself as a PHP person. Beyond the standard lame jokes people tried to lay on me, I made connections. I was often the only PHP person some of these folks had ever met face to face. Months went by, and I would get calls from those same people "hey, someone is asking me for a PHP dev - are you available?" or "my friend's company has some PHP questions - can you help?"

This is not an immediate silver bullet, and I know COVID changed a lot of how we meet and interact. But... it may be something that helps someone out there.

Re: How much have tech layoffs affected engineers vs. other departments?

#203

Post by WillPostForFood »

RC_ITR wrote: post #56
danuker wrote: post #45

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Then the "two quarters" rule is stricter. We have fulfilled a stricter criterion for a recession. Whether the NBER contradicts us is irrelevant. Less value is going around in the economy.

Ok, let's play your game. How much of the first quarter decline was due to the ports clearing and imports rising? Here, I'll give you a hint (More than 100%): https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/fredgraph.png?g=UOxC Do you think that's a real recession indicator? EDIT: Said differently, if our imports were at 4Q:21 levels, we'd have 0 quarters of decline. So is this the first import-driven recession? Because no other r…

Imports are neutral in their impact on GDP (it is domestic product after all). Imports are included in investment/consumption/govt spending, then subtracted back out: net zero. So imports rising definitely was not the cause of decreased GDP.

Re: How much have tech layoffs affected engineers vs. other departments?

#204

Post by RC_ITR »

didibus wrote: post #177
RC_ITR wrote: post #41

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I feel like a broken record but, the 'Two quarters' rule is an unofficial metric that does a bad job of representing recessions when you back-test it (no recessions from 1992-2008 in that case). In the US, a recession is defined by NBER after the fact.

I feel like non-officially most people think of a recession simply in terms of like are less and less people able to make ends meet and less and less able to afford the same luxuries as they did before.

Sure, and by those metrics:

We are at an all-time high in terms of people employed: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/fredgraph.png?g=UysZ

People are consuming more than ever before (even accounting for inflation): https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/fredgraph.png?g=UOQs

Now, to be my own Devil's Advocate, real wages are falling (though they are at about where they were pre-pandemic: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/fredgraph.png?g=SxFv

Compare that to even a mild recession like 1990, where we were 2mn below peak employment, real PCE was falling and real wages were falling.

The above is exactly why shorthand rules are not the best tools.

Re: How much have tech layoffs affected engineers vs. other departments?

#205

Post by RC_ITR »

pishpash wrote: post #197
mywittyname wrote: post #55

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I mean, if you're going to stick to the two-consecutive quarters definition, then you would be saying that we were in a recession, and are now out of one. Third quarter GDP estimates stand at 1.9% growth.

That's too noisy given inflation is 6.6%.

Real GDP

We've only recently seen nominal GDP declines in 2008 and 2020.

Re: How much have tech layoffs affected engineers vs. other departments?

#206

Post by adam_arthur »

yieldcrv wrote: post #190
adam_arthur wrote: post #176

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Nobody is going to work for Crypto startups now that the whole sector has imploded. And likely will go even lower from here. The days of profiting off ponzi scheme-esque tokens is over

most crypto assets can fall 99% from their initial trading price (like IPO price) before employees, founders and investors are at anything resembling a loss. 99.99% from all time highs thats true for newly or to be launched crypto assets, and for existing established cryptos the fully diluted value (non circulating supply that company holds) is often many times the supply that “marketcap” sites show, and this is paid…

A coin with a market cap of $1B that falls 99% is worth $10m. I'd love to see the startup with more than a few employees where that leaves anybody but the founders with anything.

And usually these lesser known tokens are thinly traded and the volume doesn't support actually cashing out large trades at market price

But yeah, if you trick enough ignorant retail investors to bid up your token, you can siphon their money to your employees. Certainly.

Re: How much have tech layoffs affected engineers vs. other departments?

#207

Post by endisneigh »

ok_dad wrote: post #189
adam_arthur wrote: post #96

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It will definitely do that if FAANG comp compresses via lower equity issuances. The difference is startups generally can’t compensate at the level that FAANGs do or did. And if discount rate stays higher, valuations will be much lower at the same revenue and growth rates than they had been in the past. Of course this also implies the value of the dollars you earn is greater via opportunity of higher yielding investme…

Personally, myself and several others I know don’t care to work on the problems that the big tech corpos are working on, no matter the salary. I make well below what I could because the things I work on are important contributions to society rather than helping an advertising business or help a closed garden become more closed.

Where do you work?

Re: How much have tech layoffs affected engineers vs. other departments?

#208

Post by RC_ITR »

WillPostForFood wrote: post #203
RC_ITR wrote: post #56

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Ok, let's play your game. How much of the first quarter decline was due to the ports clearing and imports rising? Here, I'll give you a hint (More than 100%): https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/fredgraph.png?g=UOxC Do you think that's a real recession indicator? EDIT: Said differently, if our imports were at 4Q:21 levels, we'd have 0 quarters of decline. So is this the first import-driven recession? Because no other r…

Imports are neutral in their impact on GDP (it is domestic product after all). Imports are included in investment/consumption/govt spending, then subtracted back out: net zero. So imports rising definitely was not the cause of decreased GDP.

I'm glad you're confident, but you're wrong.

Net exports is a component of GDP and it's exports minus imports.

IDK where you got the idea you did.

> (it is domestic product after all)

Yeah, so buying more from overseas than you sell overseas is a net drag on the economy.

EDIT: Like here's the release, check it out for yourself. The tables start on page 11. https://www.bea.gov/sites/default/files/2022-09/gdp2q22_3rd....

Re: How much have tech layoffs affected engineers vs. other departments?

#209

Post by spacemadness »

davewritescode wrote: post #135
spacemadness wrote: post #95

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I keep being told I shouldn’t be writing code at my level and should be knee deep in design docs and estimations all day long. This is actually what happens but I would much prefer to be writing software and am wondering if I can even be happy in this career any longer. This industry has some real bizarre notions of career progression.

You need to write code and you need to get people around you to write better code. That’s basically what a staff engineer does in addition to making large design decisions.

That’s my belief as well but there are managers out there that think staff engineers should never write code. It boggles my mind they think this way but many do.

Re: How much have tech layoffs affected engineers vs. other departments?

#210

Post by RC_ITR »

pishpash wrote: post #198
RC_ITR wrote: post #56

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Ok, let's play your game. How much of the first quarter decline was due to the ports clearing and imports rising? Here, I'll give you a hint (More than 100%): https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/fredgraph.png?g=UOxC Do you think that's a real recession indicator? EDIT: Said differently, if our imports were at 4Q:21 levels, we'd have 0 quarters of decline. So is this the first import-driven recession? Because no other r…

Doesn't matter the reason, net net less goods were produced. Imports couldn't stay at 4Q:21 levels forever, only the timing of the imports was shifted around.

>Doesn't matter the reason, net net less goods were produced.

That's not how GDP works? It's not adding up all the things that were made, it's measuring the value an economy produced.

A quirk of that is imports are value an economy consumes (usually offset by Foreign Direct Investment).

If those ships decided to bail from LA and head to Japan, would the economy have 'produced less'?

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