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TSMC Reports Q3 Earnings [pdf]

investor.tsmc.com

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Re: TSMC Reports Q3 Earnings [pdf]

#51

Post by tempe1h1 »

londons_explore wrote: post #32
photochemsyn wrote: post #28

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The U.S. position on the entire Chinese semiconductor industry is getting increasingly ridiculous. It's not just chips, since China is the one country that's developed efficient monocrystalline silicon ingot production at scale, and solar panels made with that material are far superior to anything made in the USA currently. The USA's financialized short-term thinking has resulted in a failure to develop basic technol…

It's a move part of the bigger world picture. A large chunk of experts see China as the likely next world superpower. The USA, current world superpower, probably can't prevent that happening, but they can make moves to delay it. This move might delay it happening by a few months. Combine with lots of other small moves, and the USA might get another few years of world superpower status, even if the moves hurt both cou…

what a dumb way to redefine winning... if your rival loses more than you means you have won.

they act as if with that assumption, but in fact what really happens is everyone loses. it's a lose-lose scenario

Re: TSMC Reports Q3 Earnings [pdf]

#52

Post by xiphias2 »

photochemsyn wrote: post #50
xiphias2 wrote: post #40

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It's everything but ridiculous. China is developing its military at incredible speed and currency wars usually lead to economic and then real wars. It's a terrible thing that none of us wants, but happens anyways.

I imagine the Raytheon/Lockheed/etc. crowd does want increased military tensions with China to justify bloated MIC budgets into the foreseeable future, and of course that's one of the few manufacturing centers in the US that hasn't been heavily outsourced to sweatshop labor zones. It's not very productive in the long run, however - for example, a tank is only 'economically productive' if your economic model is based…

War is a general consequence of monetary system problems, so just blaming it on the military wanting to be bigger (which is true for every organization) doesn't look totally at the big picture.

I love Shelling out: The origins of money blog post from Nick Szabo as it's a great explanation of how having a hard monetary system with small inflation shared by everybody the parties to be more peaceful.

US had a trade relation with China where China was buying US bonds, but as US was issuing lots of new bonds China lost trust, and started selling it thereby opting out of the US bonds based monetary system.

Re: TSMC Reports Q3 Earnings [pdf]

#53

Post by xadhominemx »

photochemsyn wrote: post #28
sct202 wrote: post #17

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Their stock is falling because of future demand issues coming up with the whole semiconductor industry. Just this week, expanded export bans to China were announced and are an uncertainty on how much volume will be impacted in the future, because no one knows what will get an exemption or not.

The U.S. position on the entire Chinese semiconductor industry is getting increasingly ridiculous. It's not just chips, since China is the one country that's developed efficient monocrystalline silicon ingot production at scale, and solar panels made with that material are far superior to anything made in the USA currently. The USA's financialized short-term thinking has resulted in a failure to develop basic technol…

Respectfully, there is so much that is just factually incorrect in your comment that I don’t want to bother to even respond. Please just save us the hassle and delete, and in the future refrain from speaking confidently about topics of which you have zero clue.

Re: TSMC Reports Q3 Earnings [pdf]

#54

Post by sonotathrowaway »

londons_explore wrote: post #32
photochemsyn wrote: post #28

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The U.S. position on the entire Chinese semiconductor industry is getting increasingly ridiculous. It's not just chips, since China is the one country that's developed efficient monocrystalline silicon ingot production at scale, and solar panels made with that material are far superior to anything made in the USA currently. The USA's financialized short-term thinking has resulted in a failure to develop basic technol…

It's a move part of the bigger world picture. A large chunk of experts see China as the likely next world superpower. The USA, current world superpower, probably can't prevent that happening, but they can make moves to delay it. This move might delay it happening by a few months. Combine with lots of other small moves, and the USA might get another few years of world superpower status, even if the moves hurt both cou…

This is one of those opinions that sounds smart but doesn’t make any sense to anyone with more than a passing familiarity with it.

A large chunk of experts do not see China as the likely world next superpower, many experts are debating if China will survive as a unified nation in the next decades.

China has finally admitted to lying about their population for decades, they have some of the worst demographics in the world, along with the single worst food security and greatest debt load in recorded history.

No serious person outside of anonymous online forums would ever describe any of these things as ingredients to success, and this is k my a small sampling of their long term problems.

This is even ignoring India, a country with much better strategic advantages and an actually growing population.

The idea that China was next was popular by experts in 2005.

Re: TSMC Reports Q3 Earnings [pdf]

#55

Post by sonotathrowaway »

pweezy wrote: post #45
nordsieck wrote: post #37

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> A large chunk of experts see China as the likely next world superpower. The USA, current world superpower, probably can't prevent that happening, but they can make moves to delay it. We'll see. Lots of people thought Japan would overtake the US as well, and that didn't exactly pan out. China has some real problems between the legacy of their one child policy and their current real estate investment crisis. It's cer…

China overtaking the US seems a lot more likely based on sheer numbers. China’s population is over 4x larger than that of the US. So China “just” needs to reach a GDP per capita of 25% to have a larger economy than the US. This metric has been growing rapidly in the past decade or two and from a rough search, seems to currently stand around 17-18% of the US’s figure. Of course GDP isn’t the only factor in world power…

China has the fastest aging population in recorded human history, along with some of the worst demographics.

What exact advantages do you see in that?

Re: TSMC Reports Q3 Earnings [pdf]

#56

Post by nordsieck »

londons_explore wrote: post #49
pweezy wrote: post #45

Earlier quoted context omitted.

China overtaking the US seems a lot more likely based on sheer numbers. China’s population is over 4x larger than that of the US. So China “just” needs to reach a GDP per capita of 25% to have a larger economy than the US. This metric has been growing rapidly in the past decade or two and from a rough search, seems to currently stand around 17-18% of the US’s figure. Of course GDP isn’t the only factor in world power…

> less for some (like oil and gas) If worldwide carbon caps and tariffs become a thing, the oil and gas in the ground suddenly becomes nearly worthless if you can't use it. Whereas China has a huge amount of not-good-for-much desert and mountains which could become a solar powerhouse.

> If worldwide carbon caps and tariffs become a thing, the oil and gas in the ground suddenly becomes nearly worthless if you can't use it.

It may be worth less, but it won't be worthless. I have a hard time seeing another fuel source for long distance aviation (although we may move to synthesized fuel in the future).

Companies will also need feedstock for plastics - that use won't be affected by carbon caps at all.

Re: TSMC Reports Q3 Earnings [pdf]

#57

Post by ksec »

sandos wrote: post #4
cgeier wrote: post #2

> Gross margin for the quarter was 60.4%, operating margin was 50.6%, and net profit margin was 45.8%. Still surprised how profitable TSMC is. Especially as this seems to be below the market expectations (their stock is still falling).

I hate economics and know nothing really, but those numbers are the highest margins I have ever seen ? Aren't they profitable because they are in a unique position? I would hope they keep being profitable. What happens if they would fail?

You will also need to look at R&D spend and CapEx. Those profits are funnelled back to that. Basically it is a whole cycle, in order for fat profit margin you need to be at the leading edge in Tech, Yield and Volume. And all three of those requires R&D and CapEx. So you need Fat Profits margin to sustain it.

Re: TSMC Reports Q3 Earnings [pdf]

#58

Post by ksec »

dis-sys wrote: post #3

> Gross margin for the quarter was 60.4% this is what happens when you can convince your top customer to pay you 2.4x to gain that https://forums.appleinsider.com/discussion/229139/a16-bionic...

I cant believe this is posted on HN. A link to Appleinsider, about TSMC charging 2.4x more for N4 compare to N5P.

And the whole point of this Topic on HN was about TSMC Q3, which, should Apple really did paid 2.4x more for their roughly 70M of iPhone Pro A16, would have show up on TSMC quarterly results or future guidance.

So NO. N4 does not cost 2.4x of N5.

Re: TSMC Reports Q3 Earnings [pdf]

#59

Post by cronix »

cgeier wrote: post #2

> Gross margin for the quarter was 60.4%, operating margin was 50.6%, and net profit margin was 45.8%. Still surprised how profitable TSMC is. Especially as this seems to be below the market expectations (their stock is still falling).

> their stock is still falling

Which one's aren't falling? That's a shorter list.

Re: TSMC Reports Q3 Earnings [pdf]

#60

Post by londons_explore »

sonotathrowaway wrote: post #55
pweezy wrote: post #45

Earlier quoted context omitted.

China overtaking the US seems a lot more likely based on sheer numbers. China’s population is over 4x larger than that of the US. So China “just” needs to reach a GDP per capita of 25% to have a larger economy than the US. This metric has been growing rapidly in the past decade or two and from a rough search, seems to currently stand around 17-18% of the US’s figure. Of course GDP isn’t the only factor in world power…

China has the fastest aging population in recorded human history, along with some of the worst demographics. What exact advantages do you see in that?

I think China could easily fix their demographics if they wanted to.

They have sufficient control of their population that if they said "everyone of child bearing age must try for a child this year and next", they'd probably double their population within 2 years.

The 'demographic problem' is only a problem because they don't see it as an issue worth fixing.

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