Ashby strikes again. Current sequence models don't have the right structures to represent math. Even if they use floating point internally, they can't really float the point because the nonlinearity in the model has a certain scale. A system that processes language can take advantage of the human desire for closure https://www.eurogamer.net/blood-in-the-gutter to fool people into thinking it is more capable than it r…
For me the problem is that we can look at the output and say if it's right or wrong, but we know what language models do, internally: they predict the next token in a sequence. And we know that this is no way to do arithmetic, in the long run, even though it might well work over finite domains.
Which is to say, I'm just as skeptical as you are, and probably even more, but I think it's useful to separate the claim from what has actually been demonstrated. Google claims its Minerva model is "solving maths problems" but what it's really doing is predicting solutions to problems like the ones it's been fine-tuned on, and those problems are problems stated at least partly in natural language, not "naked" arithmetic operations. In the latter, language models are still crap because they can't use the context of the natural language problem statement to help them predict the solution.
Btw, "chain of thought prompting" if I remember correctly is a process by which an experimenter prompts the language model with a sequence of intermediary problems. So it's not so much the model's chain of thought, as the experimenter's chain of thought and the experimenter is asking the model to help him or her complete their chain of thought. I have a fuzzy recollection of that though.