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Nord Stream: Tie-ins and hyperbaric welding

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Re: Nord Stream: Tie-ins and hyperbaric welding

#271

Post by durindeathless »

belorn wrote: post #164
rendall wrote: post #67

Everyone seems to know it was Russia and is just casting out ideas to find a plausible motivation. I find that completely baffling. For opportunity, consider that while setting up the pipeline needs a weird high-pressure residence and special training, blowing it up takes a fishing boat, scuba gear and underwater explosives. The equipment and training is cheap and available. So, those with opportunity is almost anyon…

Diving down 60-80 meters in the baltic ocean is quite advanced technical diving if you are just going to go down there and up again. Doing any kind of work (which increase breathing) at those depths is a massive step in complexity. We are talking about cold water diving, at hypoxic gas depths, with usually low visibility. The dive would require several hours of decompression in the middle of a shipping lane. The dens…

It depends on the explosives imo. They could have been attached that day, or months back. Personally, I think it was either:

Russia - doing it to try and place blame on US due to Biden comments in order to sow discord amongst NATO.

Poland - they have been really vocal against NS2, they have economic and political interests aligned with its destruction, they are right there .... and my buddy who works on Polish coast said that all the gas to make trimix in that area was bought up / consumed recently. He's a diver, thought it was weird as these are common gases but assumed it was because Ukraine war. Might not be related by the way.. If I was an invrstigative reporter I'd call all the gas supply / blending / diving companies in Poland and see what their oxygen, helium, and nitrogen stock looks like.

US - always possible that US and partners just said "this makes most sense to do this. It's a win worth it". Although honestly, I don't think the current admin has the cojones to do something like this. At least not without all of NATO involved. It's too brazen.

- colonel mustard with the candlestick. Somebody else

Re: Nord Stream: Tie-ins and hyperbaric welding

#272

Post by durindeathless »

tchvil wrote: post #202
rendall wrote: post #67

Everyone seems to know it was Russia and is just casting out ideas to find a plausible motivation. I find that completely baffling. For opportunity, consider that while setting up the pipeline needs a weird high-pressure residence and special training, blowing it up takes a fishing boat, scuba gear and underwater explosives. The equipment and training is cheap and available. So, those with opportunity is almost anyon…

Since we are all speculating, here's another one. How about Ukraine doing it ? It annoys the Russians. And Europeans will have a harder time to easily buy some Russian gas if this winter is too cold. Increasing our Russian anger cursor to not soften on sanctions.

I think the Poles potentially had something to do with it. They have been very vocal in opposition to the NS and now they control two pipelines one of which wholly removed from Russian control. Whoever did it would know that the bone would fall instantly on Russia or the US. To me it doesn't make any sense for either Russia or US to do this.

Re: Nord Stream: Tie-ins and hyperbaric welding

#273

Post by durindeathless »

mhh__ wrote: post #252
cloutchaser wrote: post #183

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Here's some helicopters flying over the exact explosion locations on sept 2nd: https://twitter.com/BNNBreaking/status/1574804363280719876

With transponders on?

Yeah, that makes no sense. People showing that as evidence have to consider that whoever did this wouldn't be so obvious about it. Whoever did it wants everyone to think that either the US or Russia did it. I think the Poles or the Ukrainians are potential. Or perhaps even someone from outside the EU.

Re: Nord Stream: Tie-ins and hyperbaric welding

#274

Post by durindeathless »

rendall wrote: post #185
rendall wrote: post #67

Everyone seems to know it was Russia and is just casting out ideas to find a plausible motivation. I find that completely baffling. For opportunity, consider that while setting up the pipeline needs a weird high-pressure residence and special training, blowing it up takes a fishing boat, scuba gear and underwater explosives. The equipment and training is cheap and available. So, those with opportunity is almost anyon…

One must build elaborate, implausible motivations for everyone in order to maintain the "It's definitely Russia" theory when there are more plausible, direct motivations to hand in the "Anyone but Russia" theory. Who stands to benefit from permanently ending European dependence on Russian fuel? Norway? To conclude Norway (it's not Norway, but for example), one can simply point at the loss of a competitor. No weird 4D…

Poland has been my number 1 suspect thus far. For a variety of reasons. Some of which you stated.

Re: Nord Stream: Tie-ins and hyperbaric welding

#276

Post by SanjayMehta »

Seb-C wrote: post #258
londons_explore wrote: post #124

Earlier quoted context omitted.

If they'd blown up their own assets, they would blame the west for it anyway no?

The troll farms have been very quick to start accusing the 'evil USA acting against the EU interests'... Given that their strategy have been for decades to try to sow discord in the west, EU and NATO, I would not be surprised if it was another idea towards this goal.

That's adorable. Blow up a multi-billion dollar pipeline to provide fodder for trolls.

Re: Nord Stream: Tie-ins and hyperbaric welding

#277

Post by SanjayMehta »

BurningPenguin wrote: post #231
hotz wrote: post #168

My money's on nato or the usa. Western politicians are stupid enough to go along with the idea and America's got a long history of causing chaos internationally.

That doesn't make sense at all. Why attack allies and risk invoking defense treaties? Especially considering that there is no gas flowing through those pipelines. NS2 was never certified and therefore never in use. NS1 was essentially shut down illegally by Russia. So the USA did get what it wanted long before. By blowing up those pipelines, they would lose all trust from the EU and wouldn't have any leverage left. R…

The Wolfowitz Doctrine at work.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Wolfowitz_Doctrine

Re: Nord Stream: Tie-ins and hyperbaric welding

#278

Post by koonsolo »

adrianN wrote: post #261
koonsolo wrote: post #227

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Sorry but I call bullshit on your story. Just look at this chart: https://www.cleanenergywire.org/sites/default/files/styles/g... For power generation, lignite and coal stayed about the same, gas increased from 20 to 30, oil stayed about the same. The only thing that went significantly down was nuclear going from 22.4 to 8.1. It all depends on where your priorities are, and obviously getting rid of nuclear was more i…

Your chart shows installed capacity, which is different from total power output. For gas plants in particular, since they are used as peaker plants with low capacity factors. In 2021 only 12% of the natural gas consumed in Germany was turned into electricity. In 2011 it was 14%. https://de.statista.com/statistik/daten/studie/37985/umfrage...

Ok, no problem. If you don't want to see it, you don't see it.

Congrats on Germany for their excellent energy management and master strategic decision to get rid of their nuclear plants. Absolute legend.

Re: Nord Stream: Tie-ins and hyperbaric welding

#279

Post by SanjayMehta »

bitL wrote: post #265
KennyBlanken wrote: post #187

Earlier quoted context omitted.

As someone with diving experience I laughed at parent comment's "anyone with scuba gear" assertion too - a classic example of "I'm an expert at everything because I'm a smart programmer who makes $200k a year" arrogance that is endemic here - but you're right next to them. - The timing of the explosions doesn't require "multiple coordinated teams." It requires timers. Or, as is common with naval mines, an acoustic ar…

I fail to see how obliterating 1000 miles of pipes, writing off 10s of billions as a punishment for a nuclear threat gets us away from using nukes. To me it seems like it brings us much closer to using them.

The Biden regime is not exactly stocked with functional brain cells.

Re: Nord Stream: Tie-ins and hyperbaric welding

#280

Post by AndrewThrowaway »

rendall wrote: post #144
AndrewThrowaway wrote: post #135

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I think these are good points but the main shortcoming of all the theories about Russia is that we still treat (or want to) Russia as a rational actor. I remember just before the war I would bid everything that Russia would in no way start the war. It just didn't make any rational sense. Who in sound mind would think to do it knowing that all the West [might/would] unite against you. However rationality is being lost…

> we still treat (or want to) Russia as a rational actor. People clearly do not treat Russia as a rational actor, given that everyone seems to assume Russia permanently ends European dependency on its fuel by blowing up their own equipment in NATO territory is the primary actual real go-to theory to be taken seriously. I'm not trying to dismiss your speculations about mafioso-style thinking. I mean, assuming all of t…

12 days has passed and Russia attacks civilian objects all over Ukraine during rush hour as a retaliation for attacking the bridge.

What else is this than a butthurt mafioso thinking "you will find out now what we are capable of". There is no military strategy, no tactics, no nothing in today's attacks. Where would you see any Russian rationality today? This is just something a school bully would do, not a military power.

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