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Ask HN: How to deal with markets down turn? Feeling down

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Re: Ask HN: How to deal with markets down turn? Feeling down

#142
post #58

All this is good advice, but I haven't seen any prospective on personal budgets: - Remember that money exists to be spent on useful things, it's not a video game score - Understand your monthly spending and monthly take-home. If you're in a role that grants equity, I bet you've got a healthy surplus. If not, I bet you could make some lifestyle changes to achieve that. - Take a moment to really accept that you are fin…

This is great advice. One of the things I learned from the pandemic experience was how little money I needed to spend to be happy. I spent countless hours making music using iOS apps that cost next to nothing. The possession that’s given me the most joy over the past year is an old acoustic guitar that someone gave to me, free of charge, that sent me down the path of learning a traditional musical instrument for the first time.

I used to think that if I had enough money I’d travel. We have savings now that would support living abroad, and I can work anywhere, but after doing a bunch of traveling I find I’m always happy to be back home. I like cooking my own food, seeing family and friends, sticking with my familiar routines, and so on.

I recognize that sometimes funds are needed for things that would truly make a material difference to happiness, such as being able to sponsor family to immigrate or pay for a child’s education. If your decline in wealth impacts those things, then you (OP) have my sympathy, and I hope if you are patient then these things will still be possible for you. But if that is not the situation, the old aphorism that money does not buy happiness is very true. We don’t often live like it is, but it is.

Re: Ask HN: How to deal with markets down turn? Feeling down

#143
post #81

Earlier quoted context omitted.

What was your motivation to invest in such a way that 95% loss was even possible?

To make money, why else? Look folks, this wasn't my retirement money, it was money I didn't particularly need and had no idea what to do with. It always worked for me before. My investing history is a long string of huge successes beginning in 2014. I've always invested in companies I believed in and that had solid fundamentals. It appears the market doesn't give a shit about company fundamentals right now. Most smal…

Wait, you're telling me you did well during the longest bull run ever? During 2014-2021 you literally couldn't lose.

Re: Ask HN: How to deal with markets down turn? Feeling down

#144
post #116
post #81

Earlier quoted context omitted.

To make money, why else? Look folks, this wasn't my retirement money, it was money I didn't particularly need and had no idea what to do with. It always worked for me before. My investing history is a long string of huge successes beginning in 2014. I've always invested in companies I believed in and that had solid fundamentals. It appears the market doesn't give a shit about company fundamentals right now. Most smal…

> To make money Strategies that result in 95 % drawdowns are not in the "making you money" bucket. Since growth is compounding[1], the most important property of a money-making strategy is to keep drawdowns at at optimal level. This optimal level is a thrill ride on its own, but 95 % is plain overbetting and will never make you money in the long run. ---- [1]: If you draw down from 100 to 10, it takes as long to go b…

> Strategies that result in 95 % drawdowns are not in the "making you money" bucket.

As long as you're betting with +ev after fees are taken into account then they certainly can make you money. Low sharpe / high vol != unprofitable.

Re: Ask HN: How to deal with markets down turn? Feeling down

#147

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Fidelity did a survey [citation needed] This is an urban legend from what I recall. (But not touching your investments is generally a good idea.)

Citation: https://www.businessinsider.com/forgetful-investors-performe...

That citation is an unverifiable retelling of a supposed anecdote:

> one anecdote from an employee who recently joined his firm

That page seems to be the only piece on the internet that contains this claim.

If I had a dime for every "true anecdote" told by a thought leader or a consultant, I wouldn't need a 401k.

Re: Ask HN: How to deal with markets down turn? Feeling down

#148

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Fidelity did a survey [citation needed] This is an urban legend from what I recall. (But not touching your investments is generally a good idea.)

Citation: https://www.businessinsider.com/forgetful-investors-performe...

[deleted]

Re: Ask HN: How to deal with markets down turn? Feeling down

#149

> Market is collapsing. If you are not retired, then markets being down are a good thing, because everything is "on sale" / at 'discounted' prices. At least for the US† (S&P 500, NASDAQ, Russel 2000), the historical 1-, 3-, 5-, and 10-year returns after a 25% drop are quite good: * https://awealthofcommonsense.com/2022/10/getting-long-term-b... If you've been foolish enough to cash out—which should really never been…

No post body was provided.

Re: Ask HN: How to deal with markets down turn? Feeling down

#150
post #81

Earlier quoted context omitted.

What was your motivation to invest in such a way that 95% loss was even possible?

To make money, why else? Look folks, this wasn't my retirement money, it was money I didn't particularly need and had no idea what to do with. It always worked for me before. My investing history is a long string of huge successes beginning in 2014. I've always invested in companies I believed in and that had solid fundamentals. It appears the market doesn't give a shit about company fundamentals right now. Most smal…

Like I said. I have learned lots.

And as long as you truly learned things, and apply them later[0], then it is not money wasted. I graduated from Wall Street University about fifteen years ago, and paid some steep tuition fees, but I came out a better investor for it with consistent returns. (For clarity, WSU is not a real university, but a metaphor for “blew a lot of money in the stock market”.) Take those lessons learned, and go make even more than you originally lost.

[0] Examples including, keeping emotions in check or out of the decision-making process, disciplined stop limits/losses, and, umm, staying away from margin unless you have reasons beyond “margin let’s me buy more shares”. But these are my personal examples, go find your own. :-)

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