71–80 of 228 posts
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What was your motivation to invest in such a way that 95% loss was even possible?
The everything bubble gave a lot of people the mistaken impression that they were genius tier investors. I know I personally spent a lot of emotional energy on checking my own ego.
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What are you referring to as being positive? .i.e. nonfarm payroll growth is not good at this point.
Huh? nonfarm payroll growth is up 263,000 in September. The most predictive indicator is the unemployment ratio, and it's very low right now. Perhaps inflation is a better predictive indicator, but we really don't know since we haven't had any for ~40 years. As I said, it's the uncertainty depressing markets IMO, not necessarily the outlook.
That's a lot of people not working that simply aren't in the market anymore, unemployment would look a lot worse if they were included.
Be aware that: 1) we're likely in a declining/sideways market for at least another year until inflation subsides, possibly longer 2) the Fed has most of the control over the inflation/deflation levers (on demand side) 3) markets will most likely recover over the long term, historically speaking The Fed is purposefully reducing their asset holdings and increasing interest rates to slow down demand, which in theory sho…
I also have multiple stocks that are >50% down, but if the fundamentals of the company has not changed since you invested when the price was higher, why not to buy it cheaper with discount to DCA.
As for me, in this market turmoil I just keep saving cash for the bottom and put small sums to DCA in my current positions, as I think it is a great opportunity to buy for the long hold.
Just try no to look at our portfolio every hour, because it will no change everything the less you look, the calmer you will be.
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The problem is getting out before things drop, and getting back in when the drop is "over": * https://awealthofcommonsense.com/2018/10/the-psychology-of-s... By sitting in cash you're also losing money through inflation: * https://ofdollarsanddata.com/the-cost-of-waiting/ At the end of the day you should always be invested, and if you're worried about market undulations then you should own some bonds. And besides red…
> By sitting in cash you're also losing money through inflation: Also by sitting in Stocks, you not only lost 20% this year, but also 9% due to inflation for a total loss of ~30%+. Cash is cash. It gets the job done. I'm not saying go 100% cash btw, but it has its place in this time of uncertainty. You cannot buy the dip if you're 100% invested, you have to be holding cash. --------- I suggest holding 10% cash and re…
But if you sold the stocks, you would have taken an immediate tax hit of ~20-35%, and you would have to time the bottom to get back in.
So, it's not at all clear that getting out makes sense. Depends on the depth of the decline, and that is unknowable.
Be aware that: 1) we're likely in a declining/sideways market for at least another year until inflation subsides, possibly longer 2) the Fed has most of the control over the inflation/deflation levers (on demand side) 3) markets will most likely recover over the long term, historically speaking The Fed is purposefully reducing their asset holdings and increasing interest rates to slow down demand, which in theory sho…
This time seems different with China and Russia making political shift
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This time seems different with China and Russia making political shift
There is always a reason to think it's different this time.
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There is always a reason to think it's different this time.
Investments doing so well these last 40 years is the unusual part. Vast majority of the gains in the stock market over its history happened from 1977-2007.