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Ask HN: What am I supposed to do after I’m “disrupted”? Work in video and CG

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Re: Ask HN: What am I supposed to do after I’m “disrupted”? Work in video and CG

#131

Post by princeb »

dragontamer wrote: post #82
shakabrah wrote: post #76

Earlier quoted context omitted.

These are some bold claims. Id like to see some evidence.

There are more bank tellers today in USA than at any other point, despite the growing number of ATM machines. https://www.aei.org/economics/what-atms-bank-tellers-rise-ro... This doesn't always happen mind you. But it shows that your (and my) economic instincts are piss poor. We can't just assume what the future holds. ------- Another few examples: 3D animation has killed a lot of tweening artists (the people who smo…

> 3D animation has killed a lot of tweening artists (the people who smoothed out animations for Disney Films like 101 Dalmations or Sleeping Beauty). But 3d animation created the need of modelers, texture artists, riggers, and more.

together with the previous comment on mechanics and stablehands, i wonder how many people in history grew up training and wanting to be a mechanic, only to be told, sorry we just don't have that many automobiles in the world, we need more stablehands. i wonder how many people went to do fine art in school only to be told 'look you have good skills and all but we just need more tweening artists'.

Re: Ask HN: What am I supposed to do after I’m “disrupted”? Work in video and CG

#132

Post by pornel »

kyleyeats wrote: post #8

People like you will do 10x the amount of work in the future. So we don't need about 90% of you. For this I think you should try to be one of the 10% that's left. You're on HN and you're really early in this AI image generation game.

Or we may have a Jevon's Paradox, and we'll just use 10x more instead.

Re: Ask HN: What am I supposed to do after I’m “disrupted”? Work in video and CG

#133

Post by notjustanymike »

markdown wrote: post #119
yrgulation wrote: post #94

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Web dev as in building websites has been dead for a quite a while. Web dev as in building web systems is alive and kicking. I fail to see how a complex webapp can be written in no code. A wordpress kind of app, sure. A complex web ui for a complex backend nah.

You missed my point and are stating the obvious. The problem is that that is a just a tiny tiny tiny fraction of all websites. The vast majority of websites are websites . Which leaves all web devs fighting over the few web app gigs.

I've been the hiring manager for web app gigs for 10 years, and not once have I had a surplus of qualified candidates.

Re: Ask HN: What am I supposed to do after I’m “disrupted”? Work in video and CG

#135

Post by zajio1am »

shakabrah wrote: post #76
colinmhayes wrote: post #67

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Lump of labor fallacy. Automation is not a zero sum game because it creates new jobs.

These are some bold claims. Id like to see some evidence.

The evidence is that despite constant growth of productivity since industrial revolution, unemployment is still low and not 99.99%

Re: Ask HN: What am I supposed to do after I’m “disrupted”? Work in video and CG

#136

Post by thot_experiment »

throwaway5959 wrote: post #126
Uehreka wrote: post #86

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I hear this a lot, that “automation creates jobs” chestnut. Whenever people try to support this argument, they either fall into the “not thinking quantitatively” fallacy by pointing out that “sure, 25 writers got laid off, but the company used to have no programmers, and now they have 2!” Or they fall into the “not explaining the mechanism” fallacy by giving examples from the past where “stablehands retrained as mech…

How many people work on farms as a percentage of the population now as they did 100 years ago? We still eat, but now almost no one farms. Most everyone is still employed. We’ll figure something out.

Ok but that's exactly the problem, the situation we've "figured out" is kinda trash. A bunch of rich people own all the farms and we gave everyone bullshit admin jobs because we can't admit to ourselves that almost nobody farms and we still all eat and maybe that means a good portion of the population could just chill out.

Re: Ask HN: What am I supposed to do after I’m “disrupted”? Work in video and CG

#137

Post by orbital-decay »

No offence, but all this moral panic induced by a spectacular AI demo looks really myopic. It puzzles me how many creative professionals are unable to see their edge somehow. The main value of your work is always conceptualization, even if you see yourself as a pixel pusher (if that's the case, it's most likely wrong), and it's not easy to master.

Maybe you're just not aware of the current state of these tools, and their potential in near future? It's really easy to fall under impression that it advances at light speeds but once you take a deep dive to be aware of the limitations, you'll be much less impressed.

You won't be out of your job. You will have a powerful tool to create with, though. Visual content generation based on text will always lose to compositing, just because of its inefficient nature. "Prompt engineering" is a nonsense gimmick. AI-powered tools won't "replace" you, ever. They will make possible things that are impractical right now due to the sheer amount of manual work involved. (30's animation style comeback, anyone?). You'll always be able to create something with 10x value, compared to a non-pro.

Just keep your nose to the wind, as changes won't be immediate. Embrace it and learn how to use it, to be ahead of everyone. Or at least be aware of your surroundings.

Re: Ask HN: What am I supposed to do after I’m “disrupted”? Work in video and CG

#138

Post by sircastor »

egypturnash wrote: post #22

I am a 2d artist and I have similar feelings. Are you as full of loathing for all the HN people saying “just integrate the AI into your practice” as I am? I like drawing stuff and I love that this pays my bills and I really have zero interest in becoming a “prompt engineer” instead. I think a strategy of creating an image of AI art as cheap and tacky is useful. For how long, I don’t know. If we’re lucky then it’ll tu…

> It may also be useful to try and get your professional associations to bring some suits against these things for playing fast and loose with “fair use”.

I understand your livelihood is being threatened, and that’s very scary. Can we please avoid using the legal system to kill nascent competitors? Surely there are better responses than this.

Re: Ask HN: What am I supposed to do after I’m “disrupted”? Work in video and CG

#139

Post by orbital-decay »

dan_mctree wrote: post #42
robertlagrant wrote: post #4

Some excerpts from your website in the future: "We use AI to optimise our early-stage iterations" "AI is great for generating initial concepts. Here are some of ourfavourites, and some that didn't turn out so well!" "Did you know AI can reduce our turnaround for clients by up to 50%?" In other words: it'll help. It won't replace you.

Artists which use AI and become more efficient will drive up supply of art and decrease its price. Additionally, some people who need art might just skip the artist entirely now, leading to less demand. This means some artists may no longer be able to make a living. As in, they're effectively replaced.

Or it will enable things that are currently impractical due to the amount of manual work involved - driving easy to produce stuff out, again.

Re: Ask HN: What am I supposed to do after I’m “disrupted”? Work in video and CG

#140

Post by kranke155 »

rory wrote: post #120
kranke155 wrote: post #102

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I am just answering what seems to be a common suggestion, which is become an AÍ prompt person. I have two objections to this idea 1. I don’t think this is a well paid job with a moat of a skillset Thats built over years of experience - I assume there will be a race for good UX/UI in AÍ generation of images. The other thing is it doesn’t interest me simply because I don’t see it as a craft of imagemaking. Making a goo…

> AÍ imagemaking doesn’t compare really to spending 10 hours agonising over lighting a shot which is what I love I sympathize with you a lot here. But it's not really a new problem that great art usually doesn't have commercial value commensurate to effort or quality.

No absolutely not. It’s just the first time that I’m looking at what I do for a living and thinking it’s just not going to exist in 10 years - not in the same way and potentially not at all. I’m in my early 30s, and this is my career. I have some suspicion that there is absolutely no way I can retire on my profession as it will simply cease to exist. Which is a curious problem.

It’s bizarre to me. I’m 33 years old and I still used 16mm and 35mm film at film school. When I was there people were still saying “digital cameras will never be the same”.

Then RED cameras came out and the world slowly moved to digital filmmaking. Then I saw things moving towards CGI and what it once took Pixar 10 hours to render I can do it in better quality on my laptop in 10 minutes these days. I enjoyed that, I thought that was awesome. There’s still skills involved. You have to light the scene even if it’s virtual. Virtual cameras work the same way. I take pictures on medium format film for practice.

Now it’s like - everything I’ve ever done in my life can be done by a ten year old and a sentence. It’s … frightening, awe inspiring. Many things at once. Almost overwhelming. It makes me think we’re at the end of an epoch, because it seems to me that we’re about to automate almost everything.

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