141–150 of 189 posts
> There's an "optimism stigma" that's pervasive throughout society. Funny, I'd say it's quite the opposite, you aren't allowed to say anything negative or you'd be labeled as a "downer". Everything nowadays is "amazing" and "transformative".
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Does anyone know if he actually buys carbon offsets for his footprint? I mean that would be one way to negate the impact of flying around. I imagine he does.
The people complaining about this generally don't believe in carbon offsets either.
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Pessimism can be quite useful. In particular, it helps prune off unhelpful branches of search trees, so you can focus on more promising ones. A very important part of solving problems is choosing the right problems. It doesn't help to be optimistic about something that's not going to work.
>It doesn't help to be optimistic about something that's not going to work. Thinking a priori that it’s not going to work, here we have the true definition of a pessimist.
This feels like a "terrorist/freedom-fighter" thing and so is effectively saying nothing. Like, Bill Gates accepts climate change is happening, that we should do something to avert the problems, and thinks that we can do that as a species. He thinks that renewables and EVs etc. will all help, but aren't enough and we should look for newer solutions. He has invested in multiple different solutions, presumably because…
I think that pessimism and optimism are human traits, and have more to do with our own fallible irrational view of the world, which can easily be changed depending on the current cultural perception of our future. It's so easy to bias.
When it comes to predictions, it should revolve around the scientific method. Statistics derived from data, and that probability which itself does not know the concept of optimism or pessimism, is what should be a guide for further research or decisions.
The problem is that we ourselves also decide what to investigate to begin with. Thus our tools will only ever be as good as we are ourselves. Willingness to learn, change opinions, let go of ego and prejudice, the path forward really starts with giving everyone, children and adults, time to learn. But we are in such a society where our values are often placed differently and we are in such a rush.
So I think it really starts with, how do we cultivate a good environment now? And not whether the future is pessimistic or optimistic.
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https://twitter.com/GatesJets Hard to take Gates seriously on climate change. Imagine everyone was living like this.
This is the dumbest take on Climate Change and I can't believe the HN crowd falls for it. Thought Experiment: Say, Bill Gates (and other VIPs) is respected enough that he can convert 5 Skeptics out a 100 Climate Deniers. So, In order for the successful climate actions Bill Gates has to change the minds of say 10,000 leaders in various positions across the world. That means he effectively has to meet 200,000 people ac…
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>It doesn't help to be optimistic about something that's not going to work. Thinking a priori that it’s not going to work, here we have the true definition of a pessimist.
Or you could interpret it charitably, where the person states that when looking at actions after the fact, it can be said that being optimist about an action that turned out to not work caused you to waste time.
Past tense is hindsight. Optimism/pessimism is a future tense attitude.
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Which advocates in particular? Why do you think buying a beach homes implies they don't believe what they are saying? Are you arriving at the most convenient conclusion for yourself, rather than the most likely one?
Former president Obama stands out. Why would you spend a considerable amount of your wealth on a home that is about to be swallowed up by the ocean on account of us barreling headlong into imminent climate catastrophe? You wouldn't.
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https://twitter.com/GatesJets Hard to take Gates seriously on climate change. Imagine everyone was living like this.
That and he only tried to join in on climate change way after it was politically convenient and he was trying to build his image. As well he has said some poor ideas about climate change solutions when he was first stepping his toes in the water. Which is fine if people don't hold onto your words - as someone with a fair bit of power its detrimental to other initiatives. Since then I still don't know which of his ini…
Who can you say this is not true about?
Optimism is mutations - it generates new random ideas.
Pessimism is fitness function - it kills bad ideas.
You need both for progress.
I don't really understand the distinction author makes between pessimism and criticism. The best critics are pessimists.