Earlier quoted context omitted.
I've never heard anyone tell me they were going to quit working because the US government wasn't printing money fast enough. I have heard people tell me they weren't making enough money to cover their expenses on a month-to-month basis as a result of cost increases. These happen to correlate with inflation. There is no way an economy would stop just because there was no inflation. Would Microsoft suddenly decree that…
The people who couldn’t afford their expenses due to rising costs likely would have lost their job in the recession that was averted due to inflation.
Inflation is at a 40 year high. What can history teach us?
481–490 of 550 posts
Re: Inflation is at a 40 year high. What can history teach us?
#482Earlier quoted context omitted.
The people who couldn’t afford their expenses due to rising costs likely would have lost their job in the recession that was averted due to inflation.
I really don't think we can call something "averted" if people can no longer actually afford to live.
Re: Inflation is at a 40 year high. What can history teach us?
#483Earlier quoted context omitted.
> There’s also a tipping point where inflation is self propelled because everyone is used to it so they just proactively raise prices on a regular basis. This is called cost-push inflation. Unfortunately, that theory doesn't explain where the extra dollars come from.
Why would you expect there to be some unifying theory of inflation? It's an emergent phenomenon resulting from the actions of many individual actors. I'm quite sure the people raising the prices every week had no idea how much cash was in circulation.
Re: Inflation is at a 40 year high. What can history teach us?
#484Earlier quoted context omitted.
When the money was free (near zero interest rates), borrowing money to invest in capital was imminently responsible.
> borrowing money to invest in capital was imminently responsible It's funny how that is the view if a company does it, but not when an individual does it.
Re: Inflation is at a 40 year high. What can history teach us?
#485Earlier quoted context omitted.
And you get fired from your job because demand for it disappears. Amazing.
Demand doesn't disappear. People still want the things they want. They just might not be wiling to pay as much as others would like them to. Lower the prices, and suddenly those people can justify (or even simply afford) satisfing the demand that never went away. People spending leads to more jobs.
Or they can wait more to buy cheaper. Sure, they won't do that if you sell carrots, but they will do if you sell cars.
Re: Inflation is at a 40 year high. What can history teach us?
#486Earlier quoted context omitted.
You do you. But assets like real property are historically good investments. It doesn’t make sense to not buy the best house you can afford. I’m with you with cars… but even then the maintenance expense starts to catch up.
> It doesn’t make sense to not buy the best house you can afford. I heard that a lot in the 2006-2007 era. And plenty of people lost that "best home they could afford" back then. Fortunately, I couldn't afford a four-figure car, much less a house - though some other grad students seemed able to convince someone to offer them loans. No idea how all those worked out, I do hope some of them were able to keep the houses.…
Re: Inflation is at a 40 year high. What can history teach us?
#487Earlier quoted context omitted.
This is dumb. That's not an insult -- I'm not calling you dumb, but just your argument. 1) Banks are FDIC-insured, so unless the federal government goes under, my money can't be lost. If the US disappears, so does the dollar. 2) If people lose part of their money due to a policy like the one you propose, they won't "learn." You're asking ordinary people to be aware of things which are accessible to a fraction of a pe…
> This is dumb. That's not an insult -- I'm not calling you dumb, but just your argument. No worries, I'm here to discuss and learn things, so happy about your reply! > 1) Banks are FDIC-insured, so unless the federal government goes under, my money can't be lost. If the US disappears, so does the dollar. Yes, but there is still the chance of a "haircut" or similar. At this scale, rules can be bend. But my response w…
Thank you! I enjoy discussions with folks like you.
> Maybe for the first time.
If we're having regular bank failures, we're going to enter "failed state" status. Can you name any nation which regular bank failures which isn't a hellhole?
People don't learn from once-in-a-lifetime events.
It's also not what I want people to learn. Systems like this ought to work well enough in a well-governed country that ordinary individuals don't need to think about it.
The US has problems, but not at the level of people worrying if their bank accounts will disappear tomorrow.
I also want sufficiently functioning police departments that people don't need to worry about how to defend themselves. There are things which ought to work. Retirement savings ought to be one of those.
> For instance, the state can give a guarantee for only a limited amount of money (think $20k or something like that) per person and/or institute.
The current limit is $250k. This seems reasonable, and potentially low. I'd set it at $1M, and include accounts like 401k and IRA accounts, so your retirement investment savings can't disappear in a poof for reasons outside of your control. If I bought stocks, I can (and should) expect their value to change, but I should be able to count on Fidelity safely making sure those are still my stocks.
> Second, it might very well be that banks will come up with two different kinds of accounts.
It might well be. 0.1% of the population will chose wisely. Like medicine, this is something you want to just work.
> I believe that for your health, your relationships (friends, familiy, ...) and your finances, you cannot delegate that, you must keep control yourselve. You can get people to help you, but in the end both control and responsibility are yours. That's what I think works best.
Why? All evidence suggests the contrary:
- People seem happiest in communal societies, where they don't pick their friends or family. We evolved in tribes.
- I'd love to live in a structure where I get healthy food and plenty of exercise as a "default." Staying healthy with companies marketing high-sugar foods, and obsolete parts of my brain pushing me to be lazy, is a constant uphill battle. I'd stop short of a mandate, but if everyone is healthy, we're all better off.
- Finance is a black hole for most people. People ought to be able to trust that if they work hard, they'll be able to afford basic food, shelter, and medicine (including in retirement). It feels like a trap to make people manage this.
If my life consisted of:
- Wake up for morning exercises. There are plenty of communal spaces for exercise. Volunteers run free dance, martial arts, yoga, etc. classes. My taxes fund the space.
- Work hard on open source, which benefits everyone, for some number of hours
- Spend time with my family
- Not worry about much of anything else, and count on systems working
I'd be pretty happy. We haven't figured out how to do that, but utopian ideals don't have everyone needing to investigate their local hospitals for corruption, banks for fraud, and mastering medicine and finance. As a nerd, I enjoy learning about those, but it shouldn't be mandatory.
Re: Inflation is at a 40 year high. What can history teach us?
#488The only thing we learnt from history was that *we learn nothing from the history*. For the past decades, what were the central banks all over the world doing? Nothing but printing money. Whenever there was a (economical) crisis, the only measure was printing money, *nothing but printing money*. Were the problems resolved ever? Never!!. They event pretended to be innocent by asking "why there were no inflation". Of c…
This is clearly an oversimplification because the crisis of 2008 was met with extreme money printing which did not cause a burst of inflation and was reeled in with relative ease as the economy restored itself. If money printing were the variable then it should cause inflation every time but it does not.
The inflation was very much visible in the places where the people who received the money spend their money (i.e. Wall Street). The money never made its way to Main Street, so naturally there would be no price pressure found there.
This time around the money was distributed to Main Street.
Re: Inflation is at a 40 year high. What can history teach us?
#489Earlier quoted context omitted.
>we can hope that by then AI and other technological advances have made what we consider "economics" mostly irrelevant. Is there a serious hope that AGI will invent a replicator soon after coming online? It seems likeliest to me that if a greater-than-human intelligence comes online it won't have a circumvention for the laws of thermodynamics and there still won't be such a thing as a free lunch.
If AGI came online it would probably look at the current conditions of its existence and segfault itself.
Re: Inflation is at a 40 year high. What can history teach us?
#490Earlier quoted context omitted.
They may not be printing money, but they are propping up inflation by giving people free money for compensating for inflation.
Right. One way to combat inflation is to save money. The fed encourages this by increasing the interest rate. If california truly wanted to reduce inflation, it would simply retain those $1000 checks. Taking money out of supply reduces inflation.
What California does want to do is ensure poorer people aren't bearing the load disproportionately.
Also, while we can certainly argue if this is the best use of those funds, a quick reminder that the size of the US money supply is almost 22 trillion. We're about $6T above 2019 levels. California retaining $10B is not going to have any measurable impact on inflation.