Lowest “Who is hiring?” Post Count in 30 Months • Hacker News Board

Re: Lowest “Who is hiring?” Post Count in 30 Months

#301

Post by rapind » Wed, Oct 05, 2022, 3:30 AM UTC

gpm wrote: post #261

rapind wrote: post #112

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> I don't know the intention of the author Why does his intent matter unless you think the data is being skewed or misrepresented? Seems like a fairly objective factual post to me (but I didn’t run the numbers myself). I would appreciate if data observations like this always included the script so people could easily (and quickly) verify the results, but that’s just a personal knit pick.

> Why does his intent matter unless you think the data is being skewed or misrepresented? Because the data can be cherry-picked, intentionally or un-intentionally, similar to https://xkcd.com/882/ If you believe a trend exists (or just want to find evidence for it for other reasons) and you keep looking for statistical evidence of it, you're going to find it.

Yes for sure, but no conclusions were drawn. No summary or opinion was posited.

Of course results can be skewed. Seems unlikely in this case, but it's easy enough to verify. I mean if I was going to criticize the data, I'd probably just verify it myself first, and then question intent. Thinking about it, I could verify post counts for a hand full of these pretty easily using the dev console. No one even questioned the data though, it was more along the lines of; what's the hidden agenda...

Re: Lowest “Who is hiring?” Post Count in 30 Months

#302

Post by xapata » Wed, Oct 05, 2022, 4:03 AM UTC

slg wrote: post #132

xapata wrote: post #96

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Not shrink. Slow the growth of. Decelerate is different from stop. The real problem isn't any particular position, velocity, nor even acceleration. Those can all be planned for. It's the 4th time-derivative, jerk, that messes us up.

That is a semantic debate on whether we cross an axis on a graph and we won't know whether that will happen until after the fact. We are intervening to make the economy smaller than if we didn't intervene. I think that qualifies as "shrinking" even if the growth is what is shrinking and not the overall economy.

> We are intervening to make the economy smaller than if we didn't intervene.

Depends on what time scale we're thinking about. True in the short-term, but I think the long-term expectation is that growth will be more stable, and therefore greater, with this short-term intervention.

> I think that qualifies as "shrinking"

Yes, and no. Yes, in that oh-so-important technical, relative sense. No, in that it's not the best choice of words.

Re: Lowest “Who is hiring?” Post Count in 30 Months

#303

Post by seattle_spring » Wed, Oct 05, 2022, 4:50 AM UTC

atraac wrote: post #267

seattle_spring wrote: post #68

Presumably enough employers have stopped posting to be statistically significant. I know I did; finding one qualified candidate in a sea of 50 bootcamp grad applicants for an explicitly staff-level position just wasn’t worth the effort. Worse was when I was threatened with an ageism lawsuit because our recruiters didn’t want to move forward with a guy with 10+ <1 year job stints became immediately argumentative in th…

That sounds like an issue you would have with or without post on HN. How did you solve that and how did it affect your hiring numbers? It feels like HN would at least attract way more technical people than generic job boards.

As an engineer, I gave up trying to help source candidates. I’ll refer a friend occasionally, but otherwise I don’t do strangers any favors and just let the recruiters do their job.

Re: Lowest “Who is hiring?” Post Count in 30 Months

#304

Post by bullen » Wed, Oct 05, 2022, 5:53 AM UTC

b20000 wrote: post #295

bullen wrote: post #238

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Because if you live elsewhere the positions are not available?

remote just means that you can work from home. you still need to be geographically close to the office.

That is the point, before most remote was global now they are local.

The whole point with remote is the global part. That with the internet anyone can work with anything anywhere.

Re: Lowest “Who is hiring?” Post Count in 30 Months

#305

Post by disgruntledphd2 » Wed, Oct 05, 2022, 12:32 PM UTC

speakfreely wrote: post #294

battery_glasses wrote: post #237

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I wouldn't say its the only way we know, rather its the only politically feasible move. Increasing taxes on the wealthy would arguably be a more effective way to take money out of the economy and wouldn't hurt non-wealthy people as bad, but good luck getting that through congress. The only party that can act right now is the Fed, and the only move the Fed has in increasing interest rates.

The problem is that there's no proven good way to increase taxes on the wealthy. There's two flawed approaches: (1) increase income taxes, which doesn't tax the people who control the majority of the country's wealth, and (2) wealth taxes, which no country has ever figured out how to implement effectively.

Property taxes are the only successful way we have of taxing wealth.

Re: Lowest “Who is hiring?” Post Count in 30 Months

#306

Post by pc86 » Wed, Oct 05, 2022, 12:53 PM UTC

realce wrote: post #188

pc86 wrote: post #67

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Tired of (or from) what? With the major exception of the pandemic/remote work, the world is not markedly different than it was in 2013 or 2003. What makes it seems like 2023 is so different?

> the world is not markedly different than it was in 2013 or 2003. What makes it seems like 2023 is so different? Nothing seems to be very different for the last 20 years, which also means things aren't getting any better. That's tiring.

What "things" are you talking about, and most importantly, how is that "tiring" beyond just getting older?

Any time I hear someone talk about how everyone is tired now and they weren't before it smacks of "I'm the main character" syndrome in that they're going through the same thing every generation on Earth has gone through for millennia - getting older - but suddenly it's a crisis because it's them going through it.

Re: Lowest “Who is hiring?” Post Count in 30 Months

#307

Post by schwartzworld » Wed, Oct 05, 2022, 1:11 PM UTC

It's Q4, lots of companies will open up new roles when new budgets get approved in a few months.

Re: Lowest “Who is hiring?” Post Count in 30 Months

#308

Post by viridian » Wed, Oct 05, 2022, 2:16 PM UTC

minimaxir wrote: post #3

Similar discussion a few months ago: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=31675201 This thread by myself contains a BigQuery to reproduce the data + a chart of Who is Hiring posts over time: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=31675750 Here's a new chart of up-to-date data: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/13yGlJzFpVzZ-WNHAOsdo...

Wow, I'm surprised the first covid month had such a huge impact, and its even crazier that we're on track to beat it.

Re: Lowest “Who is hiring?” Post Count in 30 Months

#309

Post by b20000 » Wed, Oct 05, 2022, 3:16 PM UTC

bullen wrote: post #304

b20000 wrote: post #295

Earlier quoted context omitted.

remote just means that you can work from home. you still need to be geographically close to the office.

That is the point, before most remote was global now they are local. The whole point with remote is the global part. That with the internet anyone can work with anything anywhere.

it doesn’t matter you can work anywhere. companies understand remote as “within 100 miles”.

do you really think you are going to be paid CA salaries while being in thailand? not likely to happen.

Re: Lowest “Who is hiring?” Post Count in 30 Months

#310

Post by SantalBlush » Wed, Oct 05, 2022, 3:41 PM UTC

lurquer wrote: post #256

zeroonetwothree wrote: post #194

Earlier quoted context omitted.

We have had 2 quarters of negative growth before without an official NBER recession (though not since the 50s).

Until recently, a recession has meant two quarters of negative growth. The term is used to describe economic conditions in various countries. The NBER is not part of the designation. Indeed, it would be impossible for an economist to observe that Egypt, for instance, was in a recession as the NBER issues no opinions on the Egyptian economy. No, conditioning the definition of a recession on the NBER was a silly politi…

As someone with an MA in econ, most of what you've said here is false. While two quarters of negative growth is often used as an informal measure of recession, the NBER definition is the one that has been used in the US for quite some time by economists.

Historically, here in the US we haven't used the Egyptian definition of recession when talking about the US economy, so what you think about their definition is irrelevant.

That isn't to say that we're not currently in a recession, but economists don't know yet, and neither do you.