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Tesla Vision Update: Replacing Ultrasonic Sensors with Tesla Vision

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Re: Tesla Vision Update: Replacing Ultrasonic Sensors with Tesla Vision

#181

Post by 015a »

Ninjinka wrote: post #100

Geohot was right. Tweet re: LIDAR, but still: "When this delusion ends and all these companies fold, it won't be LIDAR vs. Or ride sharing vs. None of this matters. All that matters is building an intelligent machine. Self driving is 100% a software problem. Given software written by God, a smartphone can drive a car." https://twitter.com/comma_ai/status/1577045884159676416?s=20...

Musk has said similar things in the past; that cars should be able to do everything human drivers can do with only vision, because that's all human drivers have (discounting the far more minor sensory inputs like sound and touch).

I find that take fascinating. Its, in effect, saying "well, computer hardware and the human brain are similar enough; the human brain just got an evolutionary headstart on its software, so once we solve that we're golden". Not only is there no evidence to support this conclusion; its trivial to recognize that the human brain and computers operate differently, at a fundamental, logical level. The brain has no transistors. It doesn't care about XOR or solid state memory. There is literally no part of the human brain which even remotely resembles any internal part of a computer; not remotely.

Why is it so accepted that this problem can be solved in software? Or, maybe: it can be solved, but it will take so much computing power that any computer which could solve it in real time couldn't fit in or be powered by a car? Virtualizing linux on my Windows PC incurs a double-digit percentage performance penalty, and that's on the same ISA; what is the human brain's ISA? AI is an emulation of human behavior; what is it's performance penalty? Are we just surfing Moore's Law hoping to outrun it?

I just find the hubris of his statement baffling; that we, meaning Our Scientific Community, literally does not completely understand why or how acetaminophen works to alleviate pain in the human brain; yet they and Musk are wholly confident that given the same inputs their software can emulate the human brain's outputs.

I'll commit this to the public record, and feel free to revisit in ten years; if a synthetic brain system ever hits performance parity with the human brain in a task like driving or consciousness, it will be running on hardware that looks nothing like what I'm typing on. I suspect that even calling it "hardware", with emphasis on the word "hard", will seem antiquated. Maybe self driving is 100% a software problem; but the brain doesn't really differentiate.

Re: Tesla Vision Update: Replacing Ultrasonic Sensors with Tesla Vision

#182

Post by hef19898 »

ajross wrote: post #136
STRML wrote: post #22

There are multiple tells that this move, just like the removal of radar, is supply-chain and cost-driven and not actually driven by engineering. If this were a planned move, the software would already be ready to replace it. It is not. Cars without radar still aren't at parity with the car that have it, although they "fixed" this a few weeks back by simply turning off the radar on the older cars. The parking sensors…

So... your first sentence is very likely true. But it doesn't match your argument two paragraphs down: > The cheapest bargain-bin cars have this feature. Your $100k+ Model S or X will not. If cheap "bargain-bin" cars have these things, then there is no supply chain problem. In fact it's likely these parts aren't available in quantity anywhere right now and every manufacturer is having to deal with it. It's just not n…

One company can have supply chain issues while another does not, even in the same region for the same parts from the same suppliers. Crazy, I know.

Re: Tesla Vision Update: Replacing Ultrasonic Sensors with Tesla Vision

#183

Post by hef19898 »

seanhunter wrote: post #180
petilon wrote: post #84

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> There are multiple tells that this move, just like the removal of radar, is supply-chain and cost-driven and not actually driven by engineering. Not true. Elon Musk has long maintained that cameras/vision is all that is needed [1]. After all, that's all a human has. [1] https://techcrunch.com/2019/04/22/anyone-relying-on-lidar-is...

> After all, that's all a human has. And a general intelligence. Let's not forget about that tiny little detail.

Give it another month or so.

Re: Tesla Vision Update: Replacing Ultrasonic Sensors with Tesla Vision

#184

Post by KennyBlanken »

i2infinity wrote: post #138
aeternum wrote: post #64

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Karpathy covered it during a conference keynote here: https://youtu.be/g6bOwQdCJrc?t=1368 It also is pretty common with other vehicles, they just don't get as much press as Tesla: https://www.rivianownersforum.com/threads/phantom-braking-an... https://www.fox43.com/article/news/feds-try-to-determine-why...

Hypothetically, Tesla would spin this story differently in no time if they are making great strides in a cheap solid-state radar. For now, though, it looks like Tesla is building a case after they decided to do away with radar. I recall EM saying that it looks ugly and expensive too. I really got confused when Telsa came up with this patent though https://twitter.com/iamkellex/status/1534240730633236480?s=2... No one…

The ability to cut through rain, fog, and snow is precisely why so many companies use radar based systems - that's arguably when they are the most important and useful.

Leaning further into their vision systems when their vision systems cause their cars to slam into emergency vehicles that aren't even in travel lanes, and to rear-end tractor trailers, isn't encouraging. Musk is placing the rest of us at risk and I'm sick of it.

Re: Tesla Vision Update: Replacing Ultrasonic Sensors with Tesla Vision

#185

Post by alliao »

dawnerd wrote: post #145
signatoremo wrote: post #66

Earlier quoted context omitted.

“In Q3, we began transitioning to a more even regional mix of vehicle builds each week, which led to an increase in cars in transit at the end of the quarter. These cars have been ordered and will be delivered to customers upon arrival at their destination” - [0] In other words, they said all of the cars had been ordered, although many were in transition at the end of the quarter. What is your source of what Tesla sa…

I mean isn’t that the same thing for traditional dealerships? They order the cars and they’re waiting to be sold. A good amount of Teslas end up rejected for whatever reason and show up on the existing inventory page. You can often find new cars in socal with delivery that week. I got my model s that way.

I'm pretty sure you can't stuff your supply chain like that.. Sunbeam got caught once doing that so I'm pretty sure it's a major no no. If it's ordered then it's ordered by someone. Not by a dealer etc? Plus Tesla have no dealers except themselves? so at most it'd be bunch of rejects?

https://www.sec.gov/litigation/admin/33-7976.htm

Re: Tesla Vision Update: Replacing Ultrasonic Sensors with Tesla Vision

#186

Post by numpad0 »

jaimex2 wrote: post #170
justapassenger wrote: post #162

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Vision also gives you unreliable output. Real world is messy and hard - sensor fusion and dealing with unreliable data is bread and butter. No one said it’s easy to build that stuff. Well, no one expect for Elon Musk to be more precise.

That last thing you want is two systems arguing about what they see. Also its lame to downvote for disagreeing.

That’s why you put in triple redundancy…

Re: Tesla Vision Update: Replacing Ultrasonic Sensors with Tesla Vision

#187

Post by dmitriid »

jaimex2 wrote: post #170
justapassenger wrote: post #162

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Vision also gives you unreliable output. Real world is messy and hard - sensor fusion and dealing with unreliable data is bread and butter. No one said it’s easy to build that stuff. Well, no one expect for Elon Musk to be more precise.

That last thing you want is two systems arguing about what they see. Also its lame to downvote for disagreeing.

People arguing for just cameras in cars have never been outside near-ideal road conditions that California offers.

Good luck driving with cameras only in northern countries (Scandinavia, Canada) when the sun is hanging low over horizon and is reflected back at you from the road.

Re: Tesla Vision Update: Replacing Ultrasonic Sensors with Tesla Vision

#188

Post by ohgodplsno »

aeternum wrote: post #42
STRML wrote: post #22

There are multiple tells that this move, just like the removal of radar, is supply-chain and cost-driven and not actually driven by engineering. If this were a planned move, the software would already be ready to replace it. It is not. Cars without radar still aren't at parity with the car that have it, although they "fixed" this a few weeks back by simply turning off the radar on the older cars. The parking sensors…

With the removal of radar, they showed some pretty convincing data that the radar was too noisy to be useful, especially with discriminating things like highway overpasses vs. stopped cars. They showed that vision could already outperform radar. With these parking sensors it's different. They have no current alternative and it will cause a pretty significant loss of functionality. Disappointing move.

Some pretty convincing data that they handpicked to make themselves look good and pretend they don't need a radar, a lidar and that vision only is good enough.

Perpetuating a pattern of lies from Tesla, ever since they started on self driving.

Re: Tesla Vision Update: Replacing Ultrasonic Sensors with Tesla Vision

#189

Post by panick21_ »

STRML wrote: post #22

There are multiple tells that this move, just like the removal of radar, is supply-chain and cost-driven and not actually driven by engineering. If this were a planned move, the software would already be ready to replace it. It is not. Cars without radar still aren't at parity with the car that have it, although they "fixed" this a few weeks back by simply turning off the radar on the older cars. The parking sensors…

> Cars without radar still aren't at parity with the car that have it

Tesla Vision outperformed Tesla with Radar in the official tests.

Re: Tesla Vision Update: Replacing Ultrasonic Sensors with Tesla Vision

#190

Post by YeBanKo »

dagmx wrote: post #28
joewadcan wrote: post #6

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Tesla cameras have sizeable overlap, so if one is obstructed it tries to extract the information from the others. If it can't then it tells you to clean the cameras. It's not perfect but it's better for them (Tesla) and hopefully better long term for all Tesla owners

They have some overlap but not large enough to be reliable. My B pillar is regularly blinded due to their inefficient moisture sealing (called out in their manual instead of fixing it) and sunlight. It causes it to fail to see most things to our side

If only one camera sees an object, then they can’t use parallax to estimate depths.
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