Inflation is at a 40 year high. What can history teach us? • Hacker News Board

Re: Inflation is at a 40 year high. What can history teach us?

#271

Post by eru » Wed, Oct 05, 2022, 4:59 AM UTC

washywashy wrote: post #251

rdtwo wrote: post #134

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Yeah but that’s not the whole picture… in 1962 the ford truck was $2000 now is around 40,000 so while a new one is better you still have to earn 2x as much to get the most basic one available

And most people rarely need a pickup truck for its specifically design utility. They likely just want a safer car which is essentially an arms race at that point. I think less pickup trucks on the road would be a good thing considering how the majority of people drive.

American CAFE standards drove people away from station wagons and towards SUVs and pickup trucks.

Re: Inflation is at a 40 year high. What can history teach us?

#272

Post by [deleted] » Wed, Oct 05, 2022, 5:00 AM UTC

beerdoggie wrote: post #54

In California, people fitting certain economic criteria are now being issued $1000 checks for inflation relief. This is beyond ludicrous. We have printed so much money, the only solution is to... print more? It's almost like it is all a sneaky backdoor to letting the government redistribute wealth without real oversight...

[deleted]

Re: Inflation is at a 40 year high. What can history teach us?

#273

Post by bobmaxup » Wed, Oct 05, 2022, 5:01 AM UTC

fshbbdssbbgdd wrote: post #256

mikewarot wrote: post #245

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The F-150 is the lowest cost full size pickup truck Ford makes. If you can't put full sheets of plywood and 2x4s in it, it's not really a pickup truck. How Much Does the Ford F-150 Cost? The 2022 Ford F-150 starts at $29,990, which is the lowest base price in the full-size pickup truck segment. However, that's for the three-seat Regular Cab, so if you're looking for more room, take note of the Super Cab's $34,075 bas…

The cheapest F-100 also had a short bed, so it wasn’t a real pickup truck either. You had a pay a whole $35 extra to get the long one!

It had a bed ~2 feet longer than the 2022 Maverick.

Re: Inflation is at a 40 year high. What can history teach us?

#274

Post by mypalmike » Wed, Oct 05, 2022, 5:06 AM UTC

dasil003 wrote: post #118

WalterBright wrote: post #101

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> There’s also a tipping point where inflation is self propelled because everyone is used to it so they just proactively raise prices on a regular basis. This is called cost-push inflation. Unfortunately, that theory doesn't explain where the extra dollars come from.

Why would you expect there to be some unifying theory of inflation? It's an emergent phenomenon resulting from the actions of many individual actors. I'm quite sure the people raising the prices every week had no idea how much cash was in circulation.

Economists working for oil companies certainly don't ignore money supply.

Re: Inflation is at a 40 year high. What can history teach us?

#275

Post by zhoujianfu » Wed, Oct 05, 2022, 5:10 AM UTC

jacknews wrote: post #171

IncRnd wrote: post #73

A good working definition of inflation is a general increase in prices and a fall in the purchasing value of money. There will generally be inflation when there are fewer goods to purchase or when the money supply increases. History teaches us that the government, often through good intentions, decreases the supply of available goods. There are many reasons this happens. Recently, people were told to stay at home, an…

"There will generally be inflation when there are fewer goods to purchase or when the money supply increases." But these seem like entirely different problems. If there's too much money, then you should reduce the money supply by increasing interest rates, stoking job fears, etc. If there are not enough goods, and the market isn't responding by producing more, you can't solve it by making sure people have less money.…

Exactly... and it seems like right now it's more because of fewer goods to purchase (less energy supply because of Russia, less goods / workers because of covid), but demand has returned to pre-pandemic levels.

I'm a little worried they're fighting a money supply increase when the problem is a (hopefully relatively temporary) shortage of supply. I think the money printing resulted in some asset bubbles (crypto, real estate, stocks), and raising interest rates has popped it already. But I think inflation will just settle down as we get our energy and supply chains righted, regardless of where interest rates are.

Re: Inflation is at a 40 year high. What can history teach us?

#276

Post by [deleted] » Wed, Oct 05, 2022, 5:12 AM UTC

ALittleLight wrote: post #257

unity1001 wrote: post #238

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> In California, people fitting certain economic criteria are now being issued $1000 checks for inflation relief. This is beyond ludicrous. Its not. Its happening in Europe too. Its a way to try to get people through the winter and avoid the energy crisis impacting ordinary people. That's what a government should do - take care of its people during extraordinary times.

That doesn't make sense though. You can't create energy by printing money. You just redistribute the value of your money. Maybe that's good - not clear to me why it's better to use inflation, which risks destabilizing the currency and punishes people who saved money, rather than straightforward taxes.

[deleted]

Re: Inflation is at a 40 year high. What can history teach us?

#277

Post by galaxyLogic » Wed, Oct 05, 2022, 5:14 AM UTC

There's two causes for inflation I think everybody agrees, too little supply and too much demand.

The demand-caused inflation would seem to be self-correcting problem: When things cost more, people buy less of them. Then suppliers will have to lower their prices or at least stop increasing them, if nobody buys their product because of too high prices.

In other words if people having too much money causes inflation, people will soon NOT have too much money, because it is used up by the higher prices.

So the real problem to focus on would seem to be supply-side inflation. How can we produce more cheaper and distribute the products to people cheaper? Isn't that the problem governments should be trying to solve, to get rid of inflation?

Re: Inflation is at a 40 year high. What can history teach us?

#278

Post by zhoujianfu » Wed, Oct 05, 2022, 5:16 AM UTC

ForHackernews wrote: post #19

nsxwolf wrote: post #12

Print lotsa money, get lotsa inflation.

Yes, but why now? They have been printing money for a long time. This is a question I have never seen these inflation hawks answer: If printing money triggers inflation, why is there a 14 year lag on that effect?

I agree.. I think the excess money goes to two things: speculative assets (i.e. supply constrained), and actual goods and services (not supply constrained... more demand results in more being created).

The money printing of the last x years has arguably resulted in asset price bubbles (housing, stocks, real estate), but didn't cause "inflation" because if e.g. people buy more nintendo switches, nintendo just makes more nintendo switches at the same price.

What happened recently was supply chains / workforces got disrupted by covid (and possibly protectionist trade policies)... and then covid "ended" and demand rebounded to 2019 levels, but supply takes longer to ramp back up. That, coupled with Russia's attack on Ukraine and the decrease in the supply of energy, caused a spike in actual goods/services prices.

Raising interest rates serves to pop the asset bubbles (and already has), but I think only time will solve the supply chain / energy restriction-caused "actual" inflation.

Re: Inflation is at a 40 year high. What can history teach us?

#279

Post by lazide » Wed, Oct 05, 2022, 5:25 AM UTC

digdugdirk wrote: post #10

lazide wrote: post #4

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I personally didn’t get that from the highlight reels of the mid 70’s and early 80’s. Mostly it was the total chaos, riots, and unrest. They were also immediately followed by Reagan, who wasn’t exactly a shining beacon of progressivism. But there were a lot of changes during that time, many that could be considered progressive, mixed in with (or perhaps the reason behind?) the chaos. A lot of folks don’t like change,…

... As opposed to the chaos, riots, and unrest that was the 60's?

Fair point! Especially the mid-late 60's.

Re: Inflation is at a 40 year high. What can history teach us?

#280

Post by beebmam » Wed, Oct 05, 2022, 5:26 AM UTC

beerdoggie wrote: post #54

In California, people fitting certain economic criteria are now being issued $1000 checks for inflation relief. This is beyond ludicrous. We have printed so much money, the only solution is to... print more? It's almost like it is all a sneaky backdoor to letting the government redistribute wealth without real oversight...

Wealth is redistributed all the time, it's called taxation.