Inflation is at a 40 year high. What can history teach us?

That's certainly the expected path forward, at least in the circles I associate with.

"When the tide goes out, you find out who's swimming naked" seems a reasonable guess as to what's going to happen. Both at larger bank/investment firm scale and at the individual level.

At an individual level, just how much slack and flexibility do you have in your spending, your finances, your general way of living? If you're a high earner (there are certainly plenty here that would qualify), are you spending that on lots of monthly payments of assorted luxury and stretch items (house, cars, all the other crap you can get loans for)? You're probably going to be in a world of hurt - there's no income so high you can't outspend it, and it's really hard to adjust those payments when the value of money goes down and you need more for the living expenses. Also, those payments don't go away if your job is eliminated.

If you're comfortably pulled back, with either a high savings rate or a high "optional spending" rate, then you should be in far better shape to adapt - and I'll suggest that using some of those resources to help others around you would be useful. Even just coordinating bulk buys of food and other resources is helpful. But the key here is that this allows for flexibility. It's good to be rich, and all that - so don't be stupid about it.

I think, collectively, we're in for a world of hurt. Inflation is high, and energy costs seem to be staggering back up. Europe is going to be a frozen wasteland this winter if it's anything but a warm winter, and the energy costs are already eating businesses alive out there. That's before you get to a possibility this winter, in which money doesn't help, because there's simply no energy to deliver. If the natural gas pipeline to your place are empty, welp. Doesn't help to be able to afford the energy when there's none to buy.

That does imply that you might consider some backup energy solutions for the winter. I'm a fan of kerosene lately. Less annoying to use than propane, and stores almost as well.

The last couple years have broken a lot of things. And we're only just beginning to learn how much is broken, how badly.

The national guard doesn't shoot people; that's been democratized to police and private citizens.

The big violent demonstrations are gone. What passes for it these days is a pale shadow.

One "benefit" of the increased inequality is that people making less than the median are too exhausted to demonstrate, much less rebel. Rebellion has always been the act of those who belong, and by excluding more of society there is "peace".

Scare quotes used in case it's not obvious that I don't approve.

Are you saying: “If inflation is good, Biden will support more of it”?

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Amsterdam_banking_crisis_of_...

Also, you’re assuming debt has fixed interest rates and asset prices will continue to rise forever. Neither of those things is likely to be true in the medium term (~5 years).

It’s complex. You can’t just look at high inflation in a vacuum without also considering that interest rates will rise (and possibly overcorrect) in response to high inflation.