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Nordstream: An Accident?

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Re: Nordstream: An Accident?

#171

Post by valuearb »

behaveEc0n00 wrote: post #46
RajT88 wrote: post #13

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The old adage, "Opinions are like assholes; everyone's got one" comes to mind.

The opinion this is cheap talk might be a shitty one? Gas line works fine for years, suddenly during regional conflict it goes tits up? A dying country whose leadership seems intent on putting it out of its misery sending its potential fathers to a meat grinder, a history of stupid big picture choices, angry at the world for not letting it conquer it might partake in environmental sabotage. It’s a lot less on the nos…

Gas line works for years, then 6 months after removal of western technical experts and ending of cooperation with technicians running west end of pipeline (which article stressed were critical to clearing plugs like these safely) it goes tits up.

Putin is not going to blow up his biggest leverage over Europe during a cold winter, its his only chance at getting them to reduce support for Ukraine.

Re: Nordstream: An Accident?

#172

Post by valuearb »

bombcar wrote: post #70
photochemsyn wrote: post #65

These two pipelines have very different operational histories so the simultaneous formation of a 'methane hydrate plug' in both pipelines seems highly unlikely at best. There's also no apparent reason why such a methane hydrate plug should cause seismic-scale explosions in both pipelines. As far as motivation, the US agenda on Europe's fossil fuel market since at least 2008 has been to lock out Russian suppliers (who…

Both the US and Russia could have factions that benefit from Germany being unable to turn the gas back on. Factions in Germany, too. Whomever did it (and US and Russia are NOT the only actors capable) the clear result is these pipelines are no longer operational and there is very little political will anywhere to rebuild them.

Sabotaging these pipelines would be bad news for Putin, removing his leverage this winter to try to reduce support for Ukraine.

Biden getting caught sabotaging this pipeline would destroy the critical European coalitions he spent so much time building.

Re: Nordstream: An Accident?

#173

Post by namaria »

DisjointedHunt wrote: post #135
namaria wrote: post #71

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I was clearly responding to a comment ironically saying we should trust the mainstream press if we argue we shouldn't trust random blogs

I hope that's not the outtake you got from my comment. The phrase "Trust me, bro" is not meant to indicate the press or any entity is above fact and evidence based reporting. If this was a story in the New York Times, it would be in the opinion section. There is an expectation in intellectual reporting to have a factual basis to draw a conclusion upon. I'm annoyed that the blog linked here simply starts off with such…

Not yours, the one answering yours. It doesn't matter enough to carry this discussion on honestly.

Re: Nordstream: An Accident?

#174

Post by namaria »

nix23 wrote: post #128
namaria wrote: post #71

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I was clearly responding to a comment ironically saying we should trust the mainstream press if we argue we shouldn't trust random blogs

The random blog brings up a theory, the mainstream media is already pointing finger towards russia, it's pretty clear which side makes assumptions without proof.

It's clear to me that thinking there are only two sides to this whole thing is grossly oversimplifying it.

Re: Nordstream: An Accident?

#175

Post by pvaldes »

valuearb wrote: post #164
pvaldes wrote: post #82

Pretty obvious sabotage. Neither a whale, nor a trawl can do it. Who benefits is a different question. Russia is economically damaged but once deciding that selling gas to Europe is not more an option, Putin has now a plausible excuse to not fulfill the gas contracts anymore, without being economically penalized for breaking those contracts, because... not my fault. It is desperate also to spark the flames of war in…

Putin doesn't care about contracts. He does care about having operational pipelines so he can use them as leverage with the west when Europe runs low on energy. The US finally cobbled together a coalition to block Russian aggression, and the coalition is enabling Ukraine to win this war. Why would they want to destroy this coalition getting caught sabotaging pipelines in Europe? Occcams razor says typical terrible Ru…

Nord stream 1 was finished in 2011 but Nord stream 2 finished in 2021. Even with lousy maintenance, one year old pipelines shouldn't break by corrosion, concrete cracks or fatigue of materials.

Four old and new pipelines breaking in exactly he same day or week is very suspicious. Shouldn't happen, unless there is a common cause and they are correlated somehow. I assume (could be wrong) that Nordstream 1 and 2 don't run exactly by the same location in the sea bottom so one minor explosion in the old one shouldn't affect the other one.

If is not fatigue of materials, only could be (I'm speculating) the pressure raising in the pipes for some reason until blowing it. I don't know if this can happen with the pumps stopped or a half speed, but looks like a plausible cause.

In any case a drone with a small explosive charge was found yet in nov-205 near the Nord Stream pipelines not far from the location that was damaged in 2022.

Re: Nordstream: An Accident?

#176

Post by supergirl »

valuearb wrote: post #168
supergirl wrote: post #153

my money is on US and/or UK. they seized the moment of chaos and destroyed the pipeline permanently. they have a lot to gain from this. it simply weakens EU, makes it more dependent on US/UK, weakens economy, etc. UK is not EU's friend and US is only a friend as long as EU falls in line and you never know in the future. Russia could have done it too but it makes no sense and most importantly they have a track record…

It's ludicrous to think Biden would green light an operation like this when he finally has a European coalition against Russian aggression helping Ukraine whin the war. This would destroy that coalition in seconds.

calculated risk. the coalition doesn't look so determined. apart from US and UK, the rest seem hesitant. blowing up the pipeline makes sure there is not turning back, especially as hard times are coming (gas reserves will be empty after winter, then what?). if caught, US bets on EU turning a blind eye to this like they did when US spied on Merkel and others. EU doesn't have the strength to rock the relation with US, especially not now.
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