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Why are nuclear power construction costs so high? Part III – the nuclear navy

constructionphysics.substack.com

211–220 of 298 posts

Re: Why are nuclear power construction costs so high? Part III – the nuclear navy

#211

Earlier quoted context omitted.

>We see the same process with urban tunnels and big military procurements. It is all perfectly legal. It is probably not fixable. Not being a lawyer and all that, would some of this holding of the hands-out not qualify as some sort of grift or worse? Are there not laws already in place for this stuff? Is it a case of it being too hard to prove so no prosecutions are brought?

Extortion is the metaphor I use. Francis Fukuyama uses the term "vetocracy" for our government. So many layers, so many checks and balances. Some of them were even a good idea at the time (eg in response to abusers like Robert Caro). Every petty tyrant or crank has to be bought off, rolled over, or buried under. That takes time, resources, lawyers, political capital, stamina, tenacity. I'm not even so sure vetocracy…

>Extortion is the metaphor I use.

When I mentioned "grift or worse", extortion is what I was thinking of but just unable to use my brain to get to extortion. So thanks for getting me there.

Re: Why are nuclear power construction costs so high? Part III – the nuclear navy

#212
post #116

Earlier quoted context omitted.

My best guess is what Freeman Dyson said in his autobiography Disturbing the Universe : he stopped working on nuclear reactors after TRIGA (01958) and Project Orion (01957 to 01961) because it stopped being fun. It became a question of bureaucracy and national security and empire-building and whatnot. So people like Dyson, who learned calculus by spending his Christmas vacation working his way through a textbok for f…

I'm so glad that you brought up TRIGA. For those who don't know, the story of TRIGA is quite fascinating from our perspective. The pitch was rather simple, "Build a reactor that a teenager could play with" (without supervision). And they succeeded. The reactor was designed in the span of a few months. They started in the summer of 01956. The first one was commissioned and built in May of 01958. And it ran until 1997,…

Well you leave out the small inconvenient truth that TRIGA is not power generating.

The earlier series of the blog post we are discussing actually talks about that a significant fraction of the cost of a nuclear plant is the thermal power plant part, which is the same as for a coal plant for example.

Moreover, actually having to use a reactor for power generation significantly increases the complexity of the design, you suddenly need to heat water, which means two different water cycles which mustn't contaminate each other... And having water involved makes things more tricky anyway because of corrosion...

Re: Why are nuclear power construction costs so high? Part III – the nuclear navy

#213

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Well the best strategy would be LFTR/MSRs that can breed and/or burn the waste to usable isotopes or as fuel. But it's always interesting how much pro-nuclear people are anti-MSR or anti-anything-but-huge-concrete-domes-and-solid-rods Because the lobbies underlying nuclear power in solid fuel rod processing is a lucrative government boondoggle. All the nuke proponents say "we are losing all the old guard!". I actuall…

This is ridiculous. Never in my life have I read someone say "Build nuclear, but not MSR!!" My problem with MSR is that I do not have a productive one I can point to and say "There! It works!". But by all means, let's build some! And then, you nicely suggest that all pro-nuclear people somehow _must be shills_ (as if, uhh, nuclear people just love destroying the world, I guess?) that really is ridiculous and not a to…

Have you read any of the history behind the ORNL MSR and the budgetary ax it got?

Do you know that Weinberg and the ORNL people advocated for increased safety in the nuclear industry (which their reactor design had fundamental advantages over all other designs)?

The organizational religion of nuclear power was that it was safe and had no chance of failure. You can choose to disagree on my characterization of the nuclear industry, but the political wars with "The Greens" has counter-radicalized nuclear proponents.

ORNL and Weinberg saying their nuclear reactor was superior on safety leads to the inevitable follow-up implication for anyone listening that other nuclear reactors... WERE NOT.

Thus the ORNL director for MSR was sent to forced retirement/fired (fired from a government job!), ORNL funding was totally axed. Kirk Sorensen claims that MSR research was forbidden in public universities at a policy level, so no one would touch it. Sorensen is a pretty rabid LFTR advocate, but the fact that only in 2022 after 60 years, finally SOMEONE is doing a research reactor that fits in a closet? The fact there has been ZERO research programs in MSR tells me that Sorensen is probably right about the prohibition.

I believe that the Military was also involved in this, because they needed their isotopes for weapons, or to maintain popular support for nuclear weapons. You can't have these people undermining public confidence in civilian nuclear power, what follows after that is the hated peacenik "Greens" then getting nuclear weapons banned.

Anyway, yes it does seem conspiratorial, but with nuclear tech which required so much governmental push/funding in the beginning, and now has SO MUCH regulatory apparatus above it that was an organizational outgrowth of the original nuclear research government agencies, YES, there is a historical and effective bias against the ORNL design.

Some of that is practical: the ORNL and LFTR designs are totally different that the entirety of the world's solid fuel designs. It would require AEC regulatory fasttracking, and a ton of budget. And if something doesn't have government funding in the nuclear world, it is DEAD.

Anyway, China has a prototype MSR reactor coming online. Oh look! MSR projects are coming out of the woodwork everywhere! What a coincidence. Los Alamos is doing materials research! Some Texas university got clearance to boot the first US research reactor in fifty years! Huh, funny how that works.

So yeah, sure it might be conspiratorial or uncharitable, but this was probably a trillion dollars in budgeting (inflation adjusted) over 20-30 years that was at stake.

I know it seems like I'm anti-nuclear. I think fission power is so effing cool. I think LFTR is the coolest design I've ever seen. I also see that nuclear is fundamentally not competitive with the current approaches, and I don't think that is NIMBYism or excessive regulatory at the core: I think the designs don't scale and issues with nuclear waste and safety are offloaded, avoided, corner-cut, etc.

And if nuclear has to compete with solar/wind, those "hidden costs" would be handled even more poorly. So a reactor design that uses 99% of fuel, is meltdown proof, scalable, and can even reprocess old spent rod waste, well, to me that or something that also lives up to that is the real path forward. Scalable (i.e. closet sized) seems to also be a fundamental requirement to competitive economics, although I read a good post on how big honking reactors are what are needed to make the economies of scale work, not small reactors, but I personally suspect that view is polluted with existing huge-effing-solid-fuel-dome reactor design bias.

I'm just a dumb fuck programmer that reads this stuff in his spare time. I would love a cogent response from a nuclear scientist that knows the ORNL design in depth to give me really good reasons why it isn't commercially viable. But again I think the entire nuclear industry and university feeder system is all solid fuel rod, because it's the only practical/career/feasible thing to study. But ORNL had a working reactor. Was it commercializable? Would it stand up to industrial/production use? Are molten salts truly impossible to contain long term? Is neutron degradation of the liquid fuel's holding tank too problematic? Are the chemical separation processes too hard to do economically?

Anyway, MSRs would be an industrial paradigm shift. It's a total rebuild of the entire nuclear power industry. It's every incumbent nuclear power interest being shown the door, or having a time clock. It's overcoming whatever instiutional echo the Nixon Administration left when it assassinated the ORNL MSR in a massive budgetary knife fight. What could possibly cause a sea change?

Oh right, the Chinese are ahead of us in it.

It's so funny, the Chinese really are the new evil empire, but they are the fundamental economic and investment driver that produced competitive solar and the batteries that will power the mainstream EV revolution. And they are the ones that have a functional MSR coming online.

Well, whatever works.

Re: Why are nuclear power construction costs so high? Part III – the nuclear navy

#214

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Which is mind bendingly stupid.. why would you switch from nuclear to coal in the middle of an energy crisis. Germany is the epitome of failed, stupid and corrupt energy planning and are now pulling the whole of Europe down with them.

In fact France is pulling Europe down. France was 80% nuclear energy, but half their power plants are down or failing so they have to import power from Germany (which is produced with natural gas). France was a net exporter, now they need massively import power. Germany could handle their power load, but not theirs + france.

Maybe for a short while, all reactors will be back online before winter and they are planning to build 10 new plants. France's only problem is that they also have a crazy "green" movement trying to ruin their nuclear program and has successfully hindered modernization until now. All i all France's nuclear program has been an overwhelming success, and they've managed to cover almost 40% of their total energy consumption with nuclear compare that to the <10% that renewables cover in Germany and it's easy to see that it was much much faster building nuclear for green energy.

Re: Why are nuclear power construction costs so high? Part III – the nuclear navy

#215

Earlier quoted context omitted.

This is ridiculous. Never in my life have I read someone say "Build nuclear, but not MSR!!" My problem with MSR is that I do not have a productive one I can point to and say "There! It works!". But by all means, let's build some! And then, you nicely suggest that all pro-nuclear people somehow _must be shills_ (as if, uhh, nuclear people just love destroying the world, I guess?) that really is ridiculous and not a to…

Have you read any of the history behind the ORNL MSR and the budgetary ax it got? Do you know that Weinberg and the ORNL people advocated for increased safety in the nuclear industry (which their reactor design had fundamental advantages over all other designs)? The organizational religion of nuclear power was that it was safe and had no chance of failure. You can choose to disagree on my characterization of the nucl…

The Chinese nation is awesome. Amazing work ethic, rich history and a great people. The only problem is the government's tendency to drift into a totalitarian state where most people live okay lives but are not allowed to step outside of certain ideological standards. If they were able to get a better government I almost think the work could do okay having them as the number one super power.

Re: Why are nuclear power construction costs so high? Part III – the nuclear navy

#216
post #201

Earlier quoted context omitted.

You do, although it's still unclear how much storage you'll need to add. On the other hand, while you can't turn PV plants on at night, you can't turn conventional nuclear plants off , and so to go all nuclear you need some form of load following: either gas peakers, or PV that carries a higher load during the day, or storage, or giant resistor banks. Evidently naval reactors are a lot better at this, though.

As far as I know it's not terribly difficult to model how much storage you'll need. It has a couple of variables, like how well connected your grid is, or how well you can shape demand, but then it's just looking at past weather data and deciding how low you want the probability for blackouts to be. Here for example is a toy implementation: https://model.energy/ From what I've heard the amount of storage is not very…

Demand response is the biggest unpredictable factor, I think, but demand is also unpredictable.

Power plants are commonly depreciated over 30 or even 40 years. Electricity consumption in the US doubled during the 01960s, and it doubled in PRC during the 02010s. If the transport sector in the US went all-electric, that would double electrical consumption again even without increasing energy use.

How can you predict what fraction of your users will be using electric vehicles 15 years from now, and whether they'll charge them in the daytime or at night? That depends on, among other things, whether they'll go back to working in offices, whether the offices will have chargers, and how much cheaper it will be for them to charge during the day than at night. And that, in turn, depends on what kind of time-of-use rate schedules you can get the public utility commission to approve. Will people insulate their houses more so they don't need to heat them at night? That depends not only on the rate schedule but their future expectations of the rate schedule, as well as what their house buyers' expectations of the rate schedule. How much will superinsulating your walls raise the house's sale price?

How about home TCES — if daytime electricity is sufficiently cheap, such forms of energy storage might become popular as a cheaper alternative to superinsulation, and maybe suppress the demand for nighttime electricity further in cold areas; but we don't have any mass-market experience with them right now. Will building codes, or insurance underwriters, impede the wide adoption of TCES after the first homeowner files a massive insurance claim to replace their hardwood floor ruined by a calcium-chloride spill? Will dirt-cheap rail-shipped carnallite drop the price of TCES further than calcium chloride possibly could? Will new carnallite deposits be found, closer to large cities?

How about the future of industry? Mass PV rollout will drop the price of energy dramatically, so industrial processes that are currently unprofitable because they use too much energy will become profitable. They might outcompete more energy-efficient incumbents.

The first example of this might be aluminum replacing steel in more and more uses; today it's so much more expensive than steel that it's only used in places where its lighter weight is a big advantage, but with lower energy costs (and shorter shipping distances) it might replace steel for many more purposes. Minimills recycling existing steel might be able to fulfill the entire steel demand for quite a while — steel mills that smelt iron from ore would shut down entirely, and the 30-year-depreciated power plants built to supply those mills might find themselves without the demand they were built for. And this might happen by 02039. This is maybe the most predictable outcome of much lower prices for electrical energy, but probably won't be the most dramatic one.

So shifts in electrical demand will depend on cultural change, diffusion of innovations, regulatory capture, consumer expectations, and cost-driven substitution in the radically changed economic landscape.

The last time the price of energy dropped so dramatically might have been Watt's steam-engine in 01776. The dislocations in society that resulted would have been very hard to predict.

Re: Why are nuclear power construction costs so high? Part III – the nuclear navy

#217

I wrote a similar take here on the topic: https://whatisnuclear.com/economics.html

To give context to who acidburn is, he's been a long time HN user, has a PhD in nuclear engineering, has worked in fission and fusion for over a decade, and has blogged about it for years. The take here is the take of an expert and not just a nuclear bro.

His take on nuclear is that of a nuclear expert.

His take on nuclear's competitors and hence its relative competitiveness as an electricity source is substantially more nuclear bro / Fox News viewer.

Re: Why are nuclear power construction costs so high? Part III – the nuclear navy

#218
post #34

Yes, cost is the issue. Everyone assumes that anyone hesitant about Nuclear power is focussed on the environmental or safety concerns, but that is wrong. The costs (and cost overruns) of the construction and maintenance of Nuclear reactors have been enough reason on their own to be bearish on Nuclear. I'm hopeful that new technologies, such as small nuclear reactions that can be built in a factory, will address this.

Nuclear is not just a little bit more expensive but more like an order of magnitude. And as cost for renewables continues to drop, that might turn into two orders of magnitude.

Small nuclear reactors might reduce the cost a little; but a little is not nearly enough. Cost needs to come down by at least an order of magnitude for it to at least somewhat keep up. Anything else is just not going to be cost competitive. And that's a problem when renewables are still dropping rapidly in price.

Re: Why are nuclear power construction costs so high? Part III – the nuclear navy

#219

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Silly question: why do you use 5-digit years with a leading zero? I have never seen this format anywhere else...

The Long Now Foundation does it that way "to foster long term thinking".

Why only one zero then?

Re: Why are nuclear power construction costs so high? Part III – the nuclear navy

#220
post #194
post #193

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Maybe (a) is because solar panels are less dangerous than nuclear waste.

we need to account for the danger of disposal/long term storage of the dead batteries for solar as well. But I'm not sure what the calculation for that is vs. nuclear waste.

My impression of solar in the western US, at least, is most solar arrays do not charge batteries. They are linked up to the power grid instead and solar owners are payed back a percentage of what they’ve contributed.

Im personally an advocate of battery banks (And have them in a boat and rv) but it seems if every single family home had a battery bank there’d be a large surplus of energy created but not always used (aka it doesn’t scale well). If anyone has information otherwise I’m all ears this isn’t my domain

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