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Nord Stream: Tie-ins and hyperbaric welding

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Re: Nord Stream: Tie-ins and hyperbaric welding

#261

Post by adrianN »

koonsolo wrote: post #227
adrianN wrote: post #200

Earlier quoted context omitted.

We're talking about whether keeping the nuclear plants on would have made Germany independent of Russian gas. If we had heat pumps everywhere we might as well use renewable energy, that's cheaper than nuclear.

Sorry but I call bullshit on your story. Just look at this chart: https://www.cleanenergywire.org/sites/default/files/styles/g... For power generation, lignite and coal stayed about the same, gas increased from 20 to 30, oil stayed about the same. The only thing that went significantly down was nuclear going from 22.4 to 8.1. It all depends on where your priorities are, and obviously getting rid of nuclear was more i…

Your chart shows installed capacity, which is different from total power output. For gas plants in particular, since they are used as peaker plants with low capacity factors. In 2021 only 12% of the natural gas consumed in Germany was turned into electricity. In 2011 it was 14%.

https://de.statista.com/statistik/daten/studie/37985/umfrage...

Re: Nord Stream: Tie-ins and hyperbaric welding

#262

Post by piaste »

maratc wrote: post #186
piaste wrote: post #108

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I had your exact same reaction, except with the US at the top of the suspects list (or non-governmental agents whose interests align with the US, of which there are plenty). The #1 reason I'm still leaning Russia nevertheless is because of an outside factor: Russia isn't screaming bloody murder about it . If 3/4th of their pipelines had gone up and nobody in the Russian government was involved, Lavrov would already b…

But if the Russians were screaming bloody murder, this would no doubt be used to accuse them. So: Russians screaming bloody murder => see? Russians are the ones who did it. Russians aren't screaming bloody murder => see? Russians are the ones who did it.

Not at all. Russia didn't scream bloody murder for MH17, or for innocent Russian citizens being poisoned abroad.

They did scream bloody murder, for example, when Ukraine had the gall to fight back and raid ammo stores in Belgorod.

Re: Nord Stream: Tie-ins and hyperbaric welding

#263

Post by piaste »

tehbeard wrote: post #199
londons_explore wrote: post #124

Earlier quoted context omitted.

If they'd blown up their own assets, they would blame the west for it anyway no?

The thinking for them doing it themselves is this is more a subtle threat like their polonium and novichok poisonings, but with less immediately political backlash (i.e. No article 5 triggered) A "we have the capability to do this... lots of other pipes out there.... Have a pleasant day" sort of message.

The incident happening virtually at the same time as the Baltic Pipe is opening also points towards Russia. "Nice brand new pipeline you got there".

Re: Nord Stream: Tie-ins and hyperbaric welding

#264

Post by Arnt »

rendall wrote: post #67

Everyone seems to know it was Russia and is just casting out ideas to find a plausible motivation. I find that completely baffling. For opportunity, consider that while setting up the pipeline needs a weird high-pressure residence and special training, blowing it up takes a fishing boat, scuba gear and underwater explosives. The equipment and training is cheap and available. So, those with opportunity is almost anyon…

Try https://nitter.it/EmmaMAshford/status/1575137413340561411#m

In particular the sentence "There's no way to know, but any explanation here requires someone to make a stupid strategic choice" and the depressing sentence after it.

Re: Nord Stream: Tie-ins and hyperbaric welding

#265

Post by bitL »

KennyBlanken wrote: post #187
belorn wrote: post #164

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Diving down 60-80 meters in the baltic ocean is quite advanced technical diving if you are just going to go down there and up again. Doing any kind of work (which increase breathing) at those depths is a massive step in complexity. We are talking about cold water diving, at hypoxic gas depths, with usually low visibility. The dive would require several hours of decompression in the middle of a shipping lane. The dens…

As someone with diving experience I laughed at parent comment's "anyone with scuba gear" assertion too - a classic example of "I'm an expert at everything because I'm a smart programmer who makes $200k a year" arrogance that is endemic here - but you're right next to them. - The timing of the explosions doesn't require "multiple coordinated teams." It requires timers. Or, as is common with naval mines, an acoustic ar…

I fail to see how obliterating 1000 miles of pipes, writing off 10s of billions as a punishment for a nuclear threat gets us away from using nukes. To me it seems like it brings us much closer to using them.

Re: Nord Stream: Tie-ins and hyperbaric welding

#266

Post by bitL »

rendall wrote: post #175
belorn wrote: post #164

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Diving down 60-80 meters in the baltic ocean is quite advanced technical diving if you are just going to go down there and up again. Doing any kind of work (which increase breathing) at those depths is a massive step in complexity. We are talking about cold water diving, at hypoxic gas depths, with usually low visibility. The dive would require several hours of decompression in the middle of a shipping lane. The dens…

Someone downstream suggested dragging explosives on a rope, detonating when they hit the pipeline. Wouldn't even need to stop.

If they detonated it with a rope, they would have gone up in flames themselves as the radius of the leak is over 1 km long. It had to be a delayed charge.

Re: Nord Stream: Tie-ins and hyperbaric welding

#267

Post by bitL »

theironhammer wrote: post #240
that_guy_iain wrote: post #97

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Resist going for "Clearly, Russia!". Just spitballing here, but why not a German opposition group? Norway? Poland? Any activist group opposed to EU dependence on Russia? Shit, why not Danish anarchists, for that matter? Realistically, it would have to have been a military operation. Causing explosions in the middle of the sea is rather difficult. And probably near impossible for your average terrorist group. Person…

It's also sending a signal to Putin. Just like Putin did with Novichok.

It's more like telling Putin to go all in on Ukraine as that country is now 100% controlling transit of Russian gas to EU, so any Russian export is at the mercy of the US in the end. The alternative to bypass Ukraine is now gone, making the goal of controlling the Ukrainian territory a strategic necessity. We can expect the war to get much worse soon. Pretty much Iraq situation on Russian side. This might also lead to their submarines cutting cables and pipes elsewhere in the world, damaging the infrastructure to keep the other side busy.

Re: Nord Stream: Tie-ins and hyperbaric welding

#268

Post by bitL »

Mordisquitos wrote: post #76
rendall wrote: post #67

Everyone seems to know it was Russia and is just casting out ideas to find a plausible motivation. I find that completely baffling. For opportunity, consider that while setting up the pipeline needs a weird high-pressure residence and special training, blowing it up takes a fishing boat, scuba gear and underwater explosives. The equipment and training is cheap and available. So, those with opportunity is almost anyon…

I agree with you, it generally makes absolutely no sense for Russia to be behind this (at least not the mainstream Russian state, I have my doubts about their internal unity). What's more, I find the timing of this incident odd, having happened just after the victory in the Italian elections of the far-right, who is somewhat ambivalent towards Putin. The only conceivable motivation I can come up with for Russia would…

It makes no sense. Russia would make itself 100% dependent on Ukrainian transit lines, prompting them to go all in to conquer the whole Ukraine, which is a nuisance. Now they have to do it or quit EU completely. This blow up doesn't help either party economically (Russia/EU).

Re: Nord Stream: Tie-ins and hyperbaric welding

#269

Post by bitL »

sofixa wrote: post #177
rendall wrote: post #166

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Why are you assuming an explanation that depends on an irrational actor when permanently end European dependence on Russian fuel is a more direct, rational motive that benefits many other actors?

Because: 1) Russia has proven itself to be a highly disruptive and irrational actor 2) European dependence on Russian fuel is already ending. By the time anybody is ready to trust Russia with energy we would have moved past the current reliance on gas. Completely destroying NS1 and NS2 don't change much there.

2) is a nice theory. There are no alternatives for the foreseeable future. There simply isn't any spare capacity anywhere in the world. And Russia will be just burning gas that was originally targeted for EU as they need to keep the sources open.

Re: Nord Stream: Tie-ins and hyperbaric welding

#270

Post by rendall »

Arnt wrote: post #264
rendall wrote: post #67

Everyone seems to know it was Russia and is just casting out ideas to find a plausible motivation. I find that completely baffling. For opportunity, consider that while setting up the pipeline needs a weird high-pressure residence and special training, blowing it up takes a fishing boat, scuba gear and underwater explosives. The equipment and training is cheap and available. So, those with opportunity is almost anyon…

Try https://nitter.it/EmmaMAshford/status/1575137413340561411#m In particular the sentence "There's no way to know, but any explanation here requires someone to make a stupid strategic choice" and the depressing sentence after it.

It is true that this is "Russian style". I'm not convinced that's enough to make it "Definitely Russia".

I, personally, me, Rendall, think it'd be pretty good for Europe to get off the Russian tit and I know I'm not the only one. If I had an extra half-million burning a hole in my pocket and a ruthless, reckless nature, I just might spend that money to blow the Nord Streams and happily let Russia take the fall. Sure, Europeans would suffer through a cold winter, but Putin and the FSB sure as hell would be unsettled, and the Russians have now lost their leverage over Germany and Europe.

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