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U.S. mortgage interest rates jump to 6.52%, highest since mid-2008

reuters.com

11–20 of 178 posts

Re: U.S. mortgage interest rates jump to 6.52%, highest since mid-2008

#11
post #5

I'm all for it. If this edges out the razor thin margins that Redfin et. al. were making on the US housing market, let's go. As a first time homebuyer who would like to purchase a place to live, a few points of interest are not going to dissuade my decision. But I have a strong feeling that the REIT market will pop like the bubble that it is once the financials start looking unfavorable.

Unfortunately those monies aren't going to come back to us but to the real estate agents.

Re: U.S. mortgage interest rates jump to 6.52%, highest since mid-2008

#12
post #8
post #5

I'm all for it. If this edges out the razor thin margins that Redfin et. al. were making on the US housing market, let's go. As a first time homebuyer who would like to purchase a place to live, a few points of interest are not going to dissuade my decision. But I have a strong feeling that the REIT market will pop like the bubble that it is once the financials start looking unfavorable.

> a few points of interest are not going to dissuade my decision Perhaps not, but if you run the math you'll see a "few points" very quickly means you'll have to buy much less house than you may have desired.

Er, either that or the seller is going to get a much lower price than they desired. In reality, a linear solution of these two conflicting desires.

Re: U.S. mortgage interest rates jump to 6.52%, highest since mid-2008

#13
Pretty crazy correction if you run the math on mortgage payments. I bought a place 1 year ago with a 2.75% rate. Say you're somewhere outside a major metro buying a $500k house. With a $100k down payment, a 2.75% rate equates to $1,633/month. A 6.5% rate equates to $2,500/month.

With $600/month in taxes/insurance, the "don't spend more than 40% of your income on housing" rule means the necessary income to comfortably afford that property increases from $65k to $93k. That'll create some waves in the market.

Re: U.S. mortgage interest rates jump to 6.52%, highest since mid-2008

#14
post #4

I anticipate people misguidedly objecting to the 2008 comparison due to the traumatic baggage of that era.

Wait until they see 2026. 10-14% mortgage (my prediction)

rates have nearly tripled in the last year

no need to go that far out

Re: U.S. mortgage interest rates jump to 6.52%, highest since mid-2008

#15
post #4

I anticipate people misguidedly objecting to the 2008 comparison due to the traumatic baggage of that era.

Wait until they see 2026. 10-14% mortgage (my prediction)

You think that we are going to have continued high inflation through 2026? Based on what?

Re: U.S. mortgage interest rates jump to 6.52%, highest since mid-2008

#17
post #9
post #5

I'm all for it. If this edges out the razor thin margins that Redfin et. al. were making on the US housing market, let's go. As a first time homebuyer who would like to purchase a place to live, a few points of interest are not going to dissuade my decision. But I have a strong feeling that the REIT market will pop like the bubble that it is once the financials start looking unfavorable.

Imagine believing that Redfin has any influence on the U.S. homes market. The U.S. home market is worth ~50 trillion dollars. There are > 1.3 million homes for sale at this moment.

Someone is buying them, and it’s definitely not the average American. I have a 90th percentile income, and I cannot afford the median (or mean) home price in the US.

Re: U.S. mortgage interest rates jump to 6.52%, highest since mid-2008

#18
post #7
post #5

I'm all for it. If this edges out the razor thin margins that Redfin et. al. were making on the US housing market, let's go. As a first time homebuyer who would like to purchase a place to live, a few points of interest are not going to dissuade my decision. But I have a strong feeling that the REIT market will pop like the bubble that it is once the financials start looking unfavorable.

Why root for the downfall of Redfin and the like? They were finally a lower cost alternative to the stranglehold that RE agents have had on sellers for decades. Why should it cost 6% to sell a house?

Do you have to pay tax to the Government where you live to buy a house ?

I'm wondering if Stamp Duty is just a UK thing. Here we pay a tax to the government when you buy that is based on the value of the house you are buying.

Up to £250,000 Zero

The next £675,000 (the portion from £250,001 to £925,000) -5%

The next £575,000 (the portion from £925,001 to £1.5 million) -10%

The remaining amount (the portion above £1.5 million) - 12%

The tax goes up even higher if you are buying a second home.

Re: U.S. mortgage interest rates jump to 6.52%, highest since mid-2008

#19

Pretty crazy correction if you run the math on mortgage payments. I bought a place 1 year ago with a 2.75% rate. Say you're somewhere outside a major metro buying a $500k house. With a $100k down payment, a 2.75% rate equates to $1,633/month. A 6.5% rate equates to $2,500/month. With $600/month in taxes/insurance, the "don't spend more than 40% of your income on housing" rule means the necessary income to comfortably…

The market does not work that way. You're implying that the cause and effect are backwards. It is local wages that set the price! The prices, while they do adjust slowly due to high friction in the housing market, are not exogenous.

Re: U.S. mortgage interest rates jump to 6.52%, highest since mid-2008

#20
I have been wanting to ladder up to a bigger house for a few years now.

For a US$1M house, which is the going rate near my area, the jump from 6% to 7% is $5000/month apr interest to $5834/month apr (not including fees, taxes, and insurance).

So to go back to the monthly of $5000 (which is out of my budget), a US$1M house would need to fall to $857,153. That is NOT happening around here.

I have no idea who is buying houses at these prices, if it's not BlackRock-type firms (corrected company name, thank you). I can't fathom how new homeowners are fairing in this market.

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