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Apple Has Reportedly Rejected TSMC's Chip Price Hike of 6%

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Re: Apple Has Reportedly Rejected TSMC's Chip Price Hike of 6%

#71

Post by marticode »

mschuster91 wrote: post #54
meragrin_ wrote: post #46

Earlier quoted context omitted.

But TSMC can delay 3nm until it has the clients. Enough of the "smaller" players will eventually want and pay for it. Apple is far more dependent on TSMC than TSMC is on Apple. Where else is Apple going to go to realistically? It would likely take 3-5 years to fund another competitor to bring it up to what is needed.

> It would likely take 3-5 years to fund another competitor to bring it up to what is needed. Apple has done precisely this multiple times or even bought up companies to have that level of vertical integration. With Apple's cash war chest, they can afford everything.

Apple can afford everything but regulators can stop it from happening, especially if it's a strategic target.

Re: Apple Has Reportedly Rejected TSMC's Chip Price Hike of 6%

#72

Post by Sakos »

onceiwasthere wrote: post #59

Being almost completely uninformed on the details of Apple/TSMC's dealings, I'm curious, would Apple ever position themselves to get into chip fabrication? I'm sure there are big reasons this is unlikely but it seems like if anyone could do it, it's Apple.

Honestly, I'm surprised they haven't started yet. If TSMC puts up too much of a fight, they might start internally considering how they would get into chip fabrication. They've already done everything else to great success (and to much surprise), so while the problem seems insurmountable, maybe Apple would be able to do what nobody else has been able to do in decades (aside from the Chinese with significant state investment).

Re: Apple Has Reportedly Rejected TSMC's Chip Price Hike of 6%

#73

Post by marticode »

scarface74 wrote: post #32
elif wrote: post #16

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I don't think you even need a viable alternative to make this kind of threat. That's why we used to enforce antitrust laws.

So who would you be breaking up in this case and how do you “enforce anti-trust” laws on a Taiwanese company? How would you break up Apple in this case? They can’t sell iPhones, iPads, Macs, Watches, monitors (their newest monitor has the same processor as the iPhone 11) and AppleTVs? Would you break Apple up so each line of iPhones have to be a separate company?

A break up is only the most extreme application of anti-trust enforcement. Before that you block acquisitions, put constraints, review contracts, etc.

Re: Apple Has Reportedly Rejected TSMC's Chip Price Hike of 6%

#74

Post by mschuster91 »

marticode wrote: post #71
mschuster91 wrote: post #54

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> It would likely take 3-5 years to fund another competitor to bring it up to what is needed. Apple has done precisely this multiple times or even bought up companies to have that level of vertical integration. With Apple's cash war chest, they can afford everything.

Apple can afford everything but regulators can stop it from happening, especially if it's a strategic target.

Regulatory agencies can stop them from buying TSMC, but they cannot prevent Apple from creating its own fab business.

Re: Apple Has Reportedly Rejected TSMC's Chip Price Hike of 6%

#75

Post by solarkraft »

necovek wrote: post #35
drexlspivey wrote: post #24

Earlier quoted context omitted.

“N3 technology will offer up to 70% logic density gain, up to 15% speed improvement at the same power and up to 30% power reduction at the same speed as compared with N5 technology” Kinda crazy to not pay 6% for these gains but that’s just me!

Only if your customers are willing to pay that much. While Apple chips are highly sought after in the West, that's still a minor part of the worldwide market altogether (and while I'd be happy to go back to M1 Max, I couldn't care less for their glossy displays, shallow keyboards and sharp edges — not to mention incomplete Linux support).

... so? The customers they do have pay ridiculously high prices. Even a 6% rise of the full unit price would barely register, especially considering the increase in performance, which would probably easily justify 20%.

Re: Apple Has Reportedly Rejected TSMC's Chip Price Hike of 6%

#76

Post by marticode »

mschuster91 wrote: post #74
marticode wrote: post #71

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Apple can afford everything but regulators can stop it from happening, especially if it's a strategic target.

Regulatory agencies can stop them from buying TSMC, but they cannot prevent Apple from creating its own fab business.

Sure, but good luck with that endeavor. Samsung and Intel are struggling to keep up with TSMC despite decades of expertise in the field and very deep pockets, so starting from scratch even with infinite money isn't gonna be a picnic. And won't solve Apple problem in the short term.

Re: Apple Has Reportedly Rejected TSMC's Chip Price Hike of 6%

#77

Post by svnt »

My reading of this is that Apple is happy to wait a bit on next-gen given the macro conditions. However if they just admitted that it would be a big hit to image. So instead they are looking to create scapegoats.

The most plausible scapegoat is the cutting-edge one with a price hike because there is maximum room for others to speculate on what isn’t right/good enough, and there is minimum risk of giving up their spot in line.

By the time competition is up on it, Apple can return to their most familiar location: somewhat behind on the bleeding edge of tech, but ahead on integration and UX.

It’s also possible that Apple is going to take fab in-house but I’m not aware of any signs of preparation and something like that seems like it would be impossible to keep secret.

Re: Apple Has Reportedly Rejected TSMC's Chip Price Hike of 6%

#78

Post by concinds »

discordance wrote: post #62
atonse wrote: post #6

I'd love to be a fly on the wall during these negotiations. Just to see what the heck they even talk about, what information each party comes armed with, and what kinds of concessions get offered. I mean it isn't just a "we'll lower this" I bet there's lots of juicy confidential future roadmap stuff, things like "Ok we'll help you invest in this _____ tech and machinery but you have to knock off half a cent" or who k…

There was a post on HN a few days ago showing the negotation emails between Jobs and NewsCorp/James Murdoch: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=5752212

An even better equivalent would be the Apple-Microsoft negotiations in 1997, around Microsoft Office, IE-as-default, non voting shares, etc. I think TechEmails published a bunch of these.

Re: Apple Has Reportedly Rejected TSMC's Chip Price Hike of 6%

#79

Post by scarface74 »

marticode wrote: post #73
scarface74 wrote: post #32

Earlier quoted context omitted.

So who would you be breaking up in this case and how do you “enforce anti-trust” laws on a Taiwanese company? How would you break up Apple in this case? They can’t sell iPhones, iPads, Macs, Watches, monitors (their newest monitor has the same processor as the iPhone 11) and AppleTVs? Would you break Apple up so each line of iPhones have to be a separate company?

A break up is only the most extreme application of anti-trust enforcement. Before that you block acquisitions, put constraints, review contracts, etc.

The last time that Apple acquired a company that could be seen as a competitor was in 1997 when it acquired Next.

What did they do with regards to TSMC that would be anti competitive? Invest money in a supplier to ensure that it had capacity?

Re: Apple Has Reportedly Rejected TSMC's Chip Price Hike of 6%

#80

Post by adamsmith143 »

svnt wrote: post #77

My reading of this is that Apple is happy to wait a bit on next-gen given the macro conditions. However if they just admitted that it would be a big hit to image. So instead they are looking to create scapegoats. The most plausible scapegoat is the cutting-edge one with a price hike because there is maximum room for others to speculate on what isn’t right/good enough, and there is minimum risk of giving up their spot…

>By the time competition is up on it, Apple can return to their most familiar location: somewhat behind on the bleeding edge of tech, but ahead on integration and UX.

Seems like a good tradeoff. Is the next years best TSMC chip really that much better than last year's? I doubt it.

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