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Nord Stream: Tie-ins and hyperbaric welding

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Re: Nord Stream: Tie-ins and hyperbaric welding

#161

Post by rendall »

tuatoru wrote: post #90
rendall wrote: post #67

Everyone seems to know it was Russia and is just casting out ideas to find a plausible motivation. I find that completely baffling. For opportunity, consider that while setting up the pipeline needs a weird high-pressure residence and special training, blowing it up takes a fishing boat, scuba gear and underwater explosives. The equipment and training is cheap and available. So, those with opportunity is almost anyon…

> Resist going for "Clearly, Russia!". Just spitballing here, but why not a German opposition group? Norway? Poland? Any activist group opposed to EU dependence on Russia? Why treat "Russia" as a unitary actor? By doing this, Putin takes away a major reason for deposing him - whoever takes over is not going to get those sweet, sweet Euro millions in return for stopping the invasion and withdrawing. It's a game-theore…

> Or Danish wind turbine manufacturers who want to force commitment to renewables?

I mean, sure. I know you're being sarcastic in order to dismiss the "Anyone but Russia" theory, but do cast the net more widely than Russia or the US.

Re: Nord Stream: Tie-ins and hyperbaric welding

#162

Post by AndrewThrowaway »

rendall wrote: post #144
AndrewThrowaway wrote: post #135

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I think these are good points but the main shortcoming of all the theories about Russia is that we still treat (or want to) Russia as a rational actor. I remember just before the war I would bid everything that Russia would in no way start the war. It just didn't make any rational sense. Who in sound mind would think to do it knowing that all the West [might/would] unite against you. However rationality is being lost…

> we still treat (or want to) Russia as a rational actor. People clearly do not treat Russia as a rational actor, given that everyone seems to assume Russia permanently ends European dependency on its fuel by blowing up their own equipment in NATO territory is the primary actual real go-to theory to be taken seriously. I'm not trying to dismiss your speculations about mafioso-style thinking. I mean, assuming all of t…

You could say than in the long term it benefits Europe/Germany. So maybe it is really Danish anarchists.

In the short term it benefits Putin - he removes target from his back by not having the keys to the gold mine.

Benefits Russian narrative of rotten, irrational, self serving west, USA/CIA acting like they own the world and etc.

Really depends how you look at it.

Re: Nord Stream: Tie-ins and hyperbaric welding

#163

Post by XorNot »

DownGoat wrote: post #120
exDM69 wrote: post #115

Earlier quoted context omitted.

If this act of sabotage was not conducted by nation state actors with submarines, but someone using fishing boats and scuba divers instead like you suggest, the perpetrators will be caught in a manner of days. The straits between the coasts of the southern Baltic sea are one of the most closely guarded waters in the world. There are at least 5 different nations (dk, se, de, pl, ru) coast guard assets with eyes on the…

Charges could have been placed weeks ago, finding culprits will be very hard if someone does not take responsibility

How would you trigger them? 100m down radio doesn't work at all. ELF antennas are nation-state level assets and need receiving antennas that are hundreds of metres long.

Acoustic messaging is possible, but again hard to do. Timed charges are plausible but that's a heck of a commitment (of course 3/4 breaches suggests a possible misfire - I imagine theres a hunt on for the last one).

Re: Nord Stream: Tie-ins and hyperbaric welding

#164

Post by belorn »

rendall wrote: post #67

Everyone seems to know it was Russia and is just casting out ideas to find a plausible motivation. I find that completely baffling. For opportunity, consider that while setting up the pipeline needs a weird high-pressure residence and special training, blowing it up takes a fishing boat, scuba gear and underwater explosives. The equipment and training is cheap and available. So, those with opportunity is almost anyon…

Diving down 60-80 meters in the baltic ocean is quite advanced technical diving if you are just going to go down there and up again. Doing any kind of work (which increase breathing) at those depths is a massive step in complexity.

We are talking about cold water diving, at hypoxic gas depths, with usually low visibility. The dive would require several hours of decompression in the middle of a shipping lane. The density of the gas mean you can't even do mild exertion without severe risks of not returning to the surface alive. The explosions also occurred within a very short time frame (an hour if I recall) with a fairly large distance between, so you need multiple coordinated teams. And last, the weather conditions would need to be fairly specific in term of wind at those locations.

I would say its a bit like looking towards the amateur rocket community in order to explain a construct on the moon.

Re: Nord Stream: Tie-ins and hyperbaric welding

#165

Post by solumunus »

p1esk wrote: post #24
eesmith wrote: post #21

Earlier quoted context omitted.

https://waterwelders.com/swim-salary-how-much-do-underwater-... > Saturation divers make up to $45,000 – $90,000 per month and over $500,000 annually. They receive “depth pay” which typically pays out an additional $1 – $4 per foot. Usually, it’s $1 per foot up to 100 feet, then it raises up to $2 per foot after that. Income is dependent upon the length and depth of their project plus tenure of the diver. As it point…

That’s pretty good - almost as good as a senior coder at facebook.

Not sure what the US rules are but in the UK the offshore income would be tax free so that's a huge income boost.

Re: Nord Stream: Tie-ins and hyperbaric welding

#166

Post by rendall »

sofixa wrote: post #150
Mordisquitos wrote: post #76

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I agree with you, it generally makes absolutely no sense for Russia to be behind this (at least not the mainstream Russian state, I have my doubts about their internal unity). What's more, I find the timing of this incident odd, having happened just after the victory in the Italian elections of the far-right, who is somewhat ambivalent towards Putin. The only conceivable motivation I can come up with for Russia would…

> I agree with you, it generally makes absolutely no sense for Russia to be behind this Like it makes no sense for them to invade with the state of their army, shell a nuclear power plant, dig trenches in the Chernobyl exclusion zone, waste rockets on civilian targets? Why are you assuming Russia to be a rational actor?

Why are you assuming an explanation that depends on an irrational actor when permanently end European dependence on Russian fuel is a more direct, rational motive that benefits many other actors?

Re: Nord Stream: Tie-ins and hyperbaric welding

#167

Post by rendall »

semi-extrinsic wrote: post #129
rendall wrote: post #110

Earlier quoted context omitted.

You think that Sweden and Denmark surveil every single dinghy and fishing boat and yacht and ferry? That if a tugboat stops for 3 or 4 or 8 hours along the 2400km stretches of the Nord Stream pipelines, the coast guards will swoop in with helicopters and snipers. Yeah, no. No, that would not have happened.

No, but they definitely have the possibility after the event to replay recordings from their very nice naval radar systems to see if there was a surface vessel doing something in those locations. Also, I understand the depth of the pipeline is 80-100 meters so you need divers experienced with hypoxic trimix (or an ROV) and you need to be able to carry a 50-100 kg payload in addition to all the diving kit. Just to qua…

Assuming you even need to dive down there. Just drop a depth-charge.

Re: Nord Stream: Tie-ins and hyperbaric welding

#169

Post by gambiting »

rendall wrote: post #137
gambiting wrote: post #114

Earlier quoted context omitted.

You can't effectively defend hundreds of kilometers of an underwater pipeline, you can only increase monitoring but that doesn't stop the pipe from being blown up. In fact the charges could have already been placed, before any extra monitoring was deployed, and are just waiting for a signal. The point being - Russia has sent a very clear message that if we don't stop pushing back on Ukraine, that pipeline is next to…

It's not a clear message if they don't actually say, nor even strongly hint, "Stop pushing back on Ukraine or Baltic Pipe is next!" No. It would make more sense for Russia to quietly blow up Baltic Pipe and say nothing.

I mean, that's not how Russia operates. They poison government critics abroad using a compound only they could possibly have, and then say "it wasn't us". They want everyone to know it was them, without saying it was them explicitly - that's just not what they do. Even if a Russian submarine blows up the Norwegian pipeline tomorrow, with recorded footage of it happening, Russia will still say it wasn't them.

Re: Nord Stream: Tie-ins and hyperbaric welding

#170

Post by DangerousPie »

tazjin wrote: post #143
rendall wrote: post #67

Everyone seems to know it was Russia and is just casting out ideas to find a plausible motivation. I find that completely baffling. For opportunity, consider that while setting up the pipeline needs a weird high-pressure residence and special training, blowing it up takes a fishing boat, scuba gear and underwater explosives. The equipment and training is cheap and available. So, those with opportunity is almost anyon…

The US is the only actor that makes any sense to me, especially after Blinken's statement yesterday (~ "it was in nobody's interest, but would you look at the benefits!"). Combine that with the US naval activity in the exact area around the time, and also the "anti"-mine "drills" they did there earlier this year. The US knows that none of their vassals will ever openly accuse them, and for the Western media it was Ru…

Sabotaging their allies' key infrastructure would be an absolutely crazy amount of risk for the US. Even if they think there is a 99% chance they'd not get caught, that is a 1% chance of completely destroying relations their with Germany, Scandinavia, the EU, and probably the entire world. And all of that risk for the very marginal benefit of disabling some pipelines that weren't going to be used anytime soon any way?

I think the much more likely explanation is that this was Russia or at least a faction within Russia. They are the actor that has already started a war in this area, has shown completely disregard for treaties and international law, and has been known to act irrationally (eg. by starting the war in the first place).

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