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Nord Stream: Tie-ins and hyperbaric welding

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Re: Nord Stream: Tie-ins and hyperbaric welding

#141

Post by fyvhbhn »

Mordisquitos wrote: post #76
rendall wrote: post #67

Everyone seems to know it was Russia and is just casting out ideas to find a plausible motivation. I find that completely baffling. For opportunity, consider that while setting up the pipeline needs a weird high-pressure residence and special training, blowing it up takes a fishing boat, scuba gear and underwater explosives. The equipment and training is cheap and available. So, those with opportunity is almost anyon…

I agree with you, it generally makes absolutely no sense for Russia to be behind this (at least not the mainstream Russian state, I have my doubts about their internal unity). What's more, I find the timing of this incident odd, having happened just after the victory in the Italian elections of the far-right, who is somewhat ambivalent towards Putin. The only conceivable motivation I can come up with for Russia would…

Russia always wanted to use NS2, now it's the only option.

Damaging one pipe of NS2 makes it seem less obvious.

Re: Nord Stream: Tie-ins and hyperbaric welding

#142

Post by rendall »

AndrewThrowaway wrote: post #107
rendall wrote: post #100

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The Nord Stream sabotage is not? You know some of the explosions happened on NATO territory, right?

Nord Stream is 51% Russian (Gazprom). Not sure if it is NATO territory or international waters. It still becomes a little bit more "muddy" on who could have made it and who benefits from it. Attacking Norway-Poland line at this point would be a very obvious and very direct attack on NATO.

This is all motivated thinking with "It's Russia!" as the end goal.

Some of the NS attacks were on NATO territory. Denmark could invoke Article 5 were it found to be Russia. If "NATO" were in the equation, the saboteurs would have stayed in Swedish and Finnish waters, and even then it's iffy.

Re: Nord Stream: Tie-ins and hyperbaric welding

#143

Post by tazjin »

rendall wrote: post #67

Everyone seems to know it was Russia and is just casting out ideas to find a plausible motivation. I find that completely baffling. For opportunity, consider that while setting up the pipeline needs a weird high-pressure residence and special training, blowing it up takes a fishing boat, scuba gear and underwater explosives. The equipment and training is cheap and available. So, those with opportunity is almost anyon…

The US is the only actor that makes any sense to me, especially after Blinken's statement yesterday (~ "it was in nobody's interest, but would you look at the benefits!").

Combine that with the US naval activity in the exact area around the time, and also the "anti"-mine "drills" they did there earlier this year.

The US knows that none of their vassals will ever openly accuse them, and for the Western media it was Russia anyways. So far it seems only that Polish MEP said outright that he thinks it was them, and cheered it on.

Re: Nord Stream: Tie-ins and hyperbaric welding

#144

Post by rendall »

AndrewThrowaway wrote: post #135
rendall wrote: post #67

Everyone seems to know it was Russia and is just casting out ideas to find a plausible motivation. I find that completely baffling. For opportunity, consider that while setting up the pipeline needs a weird high-pressure residence and special training, blowing it up takes a fishing boat, scuba gear and underwater explosives. The equipment and training is cheap and available. So, those with opportunity is almost anyon…

I think these are good points but the main shortcoming of all the theories about Russia is that we still treat (or want to) Russia as a rational actor. I remember just before the war I would bid everything that Russia would in no way start the war. It just didn't make any rational sense. Who in sound mind would think to do it knowing that all the West [might/would] unite against you. However rationality is being lost…

> we still treat (or want to) Russia as a rational actor.

People clearly do not treat Russia as a rational actor, given that everyone seems to assume Russia permanently ends European dependency on its fuel by blowing up their own equipment in NATO territory is the primary actual real go-to theory to be taken seriously.

I'm not trying to dismiss your speculations about mafioso-style thinking. I mean, assuming all of that is true, you still have only that to rely on versus Who benefits directly, materially and immediately by ending European dependence on Russian oil?

Re: Nord Stream: Tie-ins and hyperbaric welding

#145

Post by benmmurphy »

aetherspawn wrote: post #5

The fact that someone actually built this, sent it to the bottom of the ocean, and then put people inside it to weld a 1200km pipeline underwater boggles my mind. Meanwhile we inexplicably struggle to figure out clean/cheap energy at scale.

Natural gas makes clean energy possible in a lot of countries where reliable clean energy is not feasible. If you don’t have reliable clean energy then you need a source of energy that can be cheaply turned off and on to smooth supply and natural gas was perfect for this. This is also why some countries prices are determined by the price of natural gas because they are using marginal pricing and natural gas is the supplier at the margin.

Re: Nord Stream: Tie-ins and hyperbaric welding

#146

Post by sydd »

piaste wrote: post #108
rendall wrote: post #67

Everyone seems to know it was Russia and is just casting out ideas to find a plausible motivation. I find that completely baffling. For opportunity, consider that while setting up the pipeline needs a weird high-pressure residence and special training, blowing it up takes a fishing boat, scuba gear and underwater explosives. The equipment and training is cheap and available. So, those with opportunity is almost anyon…

I had your exact same reaction, except with the US at the top of the suspects list (or non-governmental agents whose interests align with the US, of which there are plenty). The #1 reason I'm still leaning Russia nevertheless is because of an outside factor: Russia isn't screaming bloody murder about it . If 3/4th of their pipelines had gone up and nobody in the Russian government was involved, Lavrov would already b…

Some more indirect evidence that it was Russia: https://twitter.com/inteldoge/status/1573450988744331274?s=4...

Re: Nord Stream: Tie-ins and hyperbaric welding

#147

Post by sydd »

rich_sasha wrote: post #136
rendall wrote: post #67

Everyone seems to know it was Russia and is just casting out ideas to find a plausible motivation. I find that completely baffling. For opportunity, consider that while setting up the pipeline needs a weird high-pressure residence and special training, blowing it up takes a fishing boat, scuba gear and underwater explosives. The equipment and training is cheap and available. So, those with opportunity is almost anyon…

I think you somewhat underestimate the difficulty of blowing this up. You have to find it first. Diving to 80 metres is _not_ child's play! Then locating the pipe with possibly poor visibility. Finally it's a big chunk of metal and concrete, you'd need the kind of explosives you can't just buy at your local corner store. I'd imagine Baltic traffic is well monitored, especially now, so if you don't want to be caught,…

USA did look there some something sus https://twitter.com/inteldoge/status/1573450988744331274?s=4...

Re: Nord Stream: Tie-ins and hyperbaric welding

#148

Post by rendall »

tuatoru wrote: post #90
rendall wrote: post #67

Everyone seems to know it was Russia and is just casting out ideas to find a plausible motivation. I find that completely baffling. For opportunity, consider that while setting up the pipeline needs a weird high-pressure residence and special training, blowing it up takes a fishing boat, scuba gear and underwater explosives. The equipment and training is cheap and available. So, those with opportunity is almost anyon…

> Resist going for "Clearly, Russia!". Just spitballing here, but why not a German opposition group? Norway? Poland? Any activist group opposed to EU dependence on Russia? Why treat "Russia" as a unitary actor? By doing this, Putin takes away a major reason for deposing him - whoever takes over is not going to get those sweet, sweet Euro millions in return for stopping the invasion and withdrawing. It's a game-theore…

> Putin takes away a major reason for deposing him - whoever takes over is not going to get those sweet, sweet Euro millions in return for stopping the invasion and withdrawing.

Do you think that someone intending to depose Putin will now not do it because the Nord Streams are gone?

Ya'll are really stretching. Sorry, but, consider who benefits directly from ending European dependence on Russian energy? If your first thought is "Russia" you... I just... don't know what to tell you.

Re: Nord Stream: Tie-ins and hyperbaric welding

#149

Post by WHA8m »

I like this thread. A bunch of possibly above average intelligent people going all in on discussing why and how such an attack was done. Very entertaining to read.

What struck me, was that a few of you seriously think about the US as a contender for this attack. Does anyone has an recent example of the US being that hostile to friend nations?

Re: Nord Stream: Tie-ins and hyperbaric welding

#150

Post by sofixa »

Mordisquitos wrote: post #76
rendall wrote: post #67

Everyone seems to know it was Russia and is just casting out ideas to find a plausible motivation. I find that completely baffling. For opportunity, consider that while setting up the pipeline needs a weird high-pressure residence and special training, blowing it up takes a fishing boat, scuba gear and underwater explosives. The equipment and training is cheap and available. So, those with opportunity is almost anyon…

I agree with you, it generally makes absolutely no sense for Russia to be behind this (at least not the mainstream Russian state, I have my doubts about their internal unity). What's more, I find the timing of this incident odd, having happened just after the victory in the Italian elections of the far-right, who is somewhat ambivalent towards Putin. The only conceivable motivation I can come up with for Russia would…

> I agree with you, it generally makes absolutely no sense for Russia to be behind this

Like it makes no sense for them to invade with the state of their army, shell a nuclear power plant, dig trenches in the Chernobyl exclusion zone, waste rockets on civilian targets? Why are you assuming Russia to be a rational actor?

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