Live data from Hacker News

Gas Leak in the Baltic Sea

forsvaret.dk

891–900 of 1001 posts

Re: Gas Leak in the Baltic Sea

#891
post #685

Earlier quoted context omitted.

What is there to be proud of? Some kind of weird payback for being kicked out of the Deutsche Bahn first class?

Because it resolves a major strategic problem for European security - that of Germany being blackmailed by Russia. At the same time it doesn’t really have any drawbacks aside from (probably minor) pollution. In particular it’s not a problem for Germany, because both pipelines were unused.

[deleted]

Re: Gas Leak in the Baltic Sea

#892
post #851

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Why is Putin direct interest destroy a source of income and leverage to the country!?!? Now Germany can buy gas from 2 sources: Ukraine and USA. This explanation makes no sense to me.

> Why is Putin direct interest destroy a source of income and leverage to the country!?!? The logic isn't unreasonable. Nordstream is very clearly NOT a source of income, currently. But it could be, if Putin were deposed. Now the Russian gas interests are stuck with Putin, they don't win anything (in the near term) via a coup. Add to that that clandestine adventurism like this is very much Putin's MO and not the USA'…

> Add to that that clandestine adventurism like this is very much Putin's MO and not the USA's

Clandestine adventurism is not the USA's, really???

> we

Oh, that explains it. Cuz "we" are always the good guys!

Re: Gas Leak in the Baltic Sea

#893

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It's a serious stretch to read this as threatening an attack on the pipeline itself. Not only is it from over 6 months ago, but it doesn't make any sense: NS2 is controlled by the Germans themselves, and there's no strategic value in blowing it up rather than just turning it off (or on). The more sensible interpretation is that Biden was threatening to fully support Germany's plans to become energy independent. And t…

NS2 is owned by gazprom through a German entity. It's Russian controlled.

Whoever can destroy it, controls it.

Re: Gas Leak in the Baltic Sea

#894

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Why is Putin direct interest destroy a source of income and leverage to the country!?!? Now Germany can buy gas from 2 sources: Ukraine and USA. This explanation makes no sense to me.

Russia doesn’t really care about Western money anymore. They can’t spend it due to the sanctions anyway.

They absolutely do. The sanctions are very far from impenetrable. They can buy pretty much anything they could before, only at slightly higher prices.

Think about what you're saying here: Vladimir Putin, famously corrupt head of a mafia state, doesn't care about money!

Re: Gas Leak in the Baltic Sea

#895

It's so easy to spin a just so story around incentives to think anyone is responsible. US did it because their gas industry want to sell to Europe, and also Biden was clipped saying he can stop NS2. Russia did it because the repair costs are low and hence the distrust propaganda value is worth that cost, and because EU is going to stop buying their gas anyway so may as well capitalize on the sunk cost. Forgetting inc…

What about aliens and illuminati? Pretty sure one of those did it.

Also, why is everyone assuming a sabotage and not an accident? The article is short in details...

Re: Gas Leak in the Baltic Sea

#896

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> The Russians blew up their own brand-new pipeline, which they spend billions creating (jointly with the Germans) and is one of the few major "hopes" to salvage that relationship, especially as winter dawns. There is no "salvaging the relationship" for the current regime. No gas will flow in these pipelines while Putin is in power, and the EU has already prepared alternatives: https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles…

The hope in Moscow is that the people of Germany, etc will rise up and democratically remove the Washington proxies (Grünen) from their governments. Then the relationship may be renewed.

The German Greens have historically been very openly hostile towards the US and NATO. To call them Washington proxies is just plain stupid.

Re: Gas Leak in the Baltic Sea

#897
post #831

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It's interesting you wrote a very long response and yet you presented no concrete arguments that the US could be behind this. We can agree that most EU countries will not support such an incident. The only two countries who have the technical capability and the political reasons are the USA and Russia. Both are evil and ready to blow the world for their own gains. > why would they take the risk to destroy the pipelin…

That’s because there are no reasons for the US to do it. Europe is staying aligned just fine right now. Germans think Russia is an unreliable business partner, and don’t want to deal with them again. Germany is already expanding LNG port capacity to buy more North American gas. It would be a tremendous risk to be discovered; Denmark could trigger Article 5 against the United States. The US needs to show strength in A…

> Europe is staying aligned just fine right now.

Sure, right now. When the winter comes and heating bills skyrocket, there will be those in Germany who want to turn the gas back on. Or... would have been. That option is gone now, at least for this winter. That's what the US might have gotten out of it.

> It would be a tremendous risk to be discovered

The US has taken more severe risks before, such as tapping the undersea cables in the territorial waters of their nuclear armed adversary during the Cold War, in principle risking global nuclear annihilation. The primary rule clandestine submarine operations play by is "don't get caught". If the US did it and did it properly, nothing will ever be conclusively pinned on America.

> Denmark could trigger Article 5 against the United States.

Fantasy scenario, get real.

Re: Gas Leak in the Baltic Sea

#898
post #113

Earlier quoted context omitted.

So that doesn't look like an accident. I have difficulty imagining accidental ignition in an underwater gas pipeline. Where would the oxygen come from? Plus it's more than one explosion on the same day - can't be a coincidence. The next question is, who did it? It doesn't seem like something in Russia's interest, they've been wanting to get that pipeline approved and operational. They invested huge sums of money to b…

Common theme I've heard here (Kyiv, Ukraine) is that this sabotage is in Putin's direct interest. There are rumours of political infighting among Russia's leaders and that there are several factions trying to seize power, however since there is no clear winner, those guys need powerful allies, EU being a very important one. The idea is that Europe really wants to buy Russian gas, but not from Putin, so if Russia some…

Given the ridiculous number of oligarchs getting defenestrated of late, it doesn’t seem Putin has lost his ability to cow them.

The USA would be entirely right not to trust Germany, but the risks of blowback should it be caught would make it too risky, and Biden doesn’t strike me as a gambler, unlike some.

Ukraine would be a good potential suspect but probably doesn’t have the capability. China could also be, turning Russia into a permanent vassal state would have its advantages, but it’s far-fetched.

This reminds me of the persons unknown who have been sabotaging Egyptian undersea fiber optic cables.

Re: Gas Leak in the Baltic Sea

#899

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> 2- Russia: they are losing the war and now throwing conscripts with not a day of training on the front. That's pretty desperate move to say the least. Whenever they escalate, they see that as a chance to break unity among the west. Blowing up their (now useless) pipeline is in line with another desperate move: at least try to make something useful out of it. If Russia loses the war, Putin is just dead (at least pol…

Russia has over 50k KIA and have lost many thousands of heavy vehicles, aircraft and even battleships. Hundreds of these vehicles are now being used against them by the Ukrainians. Russia may get support from Iran or N. Korea but so what? The support is in the form of equipment generations behind what is being delivered to Ukraine by the US and on tap to arrive from Europe. They are about to send 300k untrained men i…

> Sweden [...] shrugged at Russian threats and joined NATO.

Alternate take: Russia is behaving so irrationally and dangerously, their actions persuaded the Swedes to break two centuries of neutrality to cozy up with a defensive pact. They could have joined NATO in the 90s when the threat was nil, but instead they maintained their neutrality until things got dicey.

Re: Gas Leak in the Baltic Sea

#900

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Why is Putin direct interest destroy a source of income and leverage to the country!?!? Now Germany can buy gas from 2 sources: Ukraine and USA. This explanation makes no sense to me.

Why is Putin direct interest destroy a source of income and leverage to the country!?!? Because there's no political will to re-open it for the time being. Pushing the narrative that this was an American action benefits Putin in two ways: - Spreads discontent in Germany (and elsewhere). While the EU is okay shutting down NS 1+2 for now if things are particularly bad this winter (weather, value against the dollar, inf…

This is the classical conspiratorial judo-move. Who does this benefit? It seems to benefit A in every meaningful way, but that's too obvious, so clearly it's B doing it to make A look bad! False flag!

Usually it's Russia doing this kind of rhetorical judo move.

But this clearly benefits Norway, Ukraine, the US and maybe the Baltics in roughly that order, and hurts Russia, Germany and to some extent Netherlands. If you think the US is too noble to play dirty on a powerful European ally, I've got an Airbus to sell you.

Russia has condemned it and called it a terrorist act. The US, conspicuously, has not. At least one prominent US commentator has suggested that the US did it and that this was good.

The sabotage happened in Swedish and Danish waters, not in Russian ones. No evidence implicating Russia has been presented, although we know that the US and allies are much better than Russia at presenting evidence - when they want to.

Post reply on HN