Hacker News Board Hacker News, browsed like a classic message board
Live data from Hacker News

Nord Stream: Tie-ins and hyperbaric welding

wermac.org

Post reply on HN
Print view View original

121–130 of 280 posts

Re: Nord Stream: Tie-ins and hyperbaric welding

#121

Post by rendall »

exDM69 wrote: post #115
rendall wrote: post #67

Everyone seems to know it was Russia and is just casting out ideas to find a plausible motivation. I find that completely baffling. For opportunity, consider that while setting up the pipeline needs a weird high-pressure residence and special training, blowing it up takes a fishing boat, scuba gear and underwater explosives. The equipment and training is cheap and available. So, those with opportunity is almost anyon…

If this act of sabotage was not conducted by nation state actors with submarines, but someone using fishing boats and scuba divers instead like you suggest, the perpetrators will be caught in a manner of days. The straits between the coasts of the southern Baltic sea are one of the most closely guarded waters in the world. There are at least 5 different nations (dk, se, de, pl, ru) coast guard assets with eyes on the…

> the perpetrators will be caught in a manner of days

Even assuming all of these nations record the real-time location of every fishing boat, dinghy, yacht and tug-boat; and can play it back and analyze all of the data; and thereby backtrack to port of entry; and then crew; and then investigate all of the false positives within days. Implausible, but ok, assuming.

But they can find no one, or all the trails run cold. Your next go-to idea for the failure would be Russia or the US?

Come on. Aren't there other plausible reasons?

Re: Nord Stream: Tie-ins and hyperbaric welding

#122

Post by adrianN »

koonsolo wrote: post #72
adrianN wrote: post #64

Earlier quoted context omitted.

No, or we wouldn't have needed gas a couple of years ago.

A couple of years ago??? Around 2010 they had 17 reactors, then they shut down 8. Last years they only had 6 running, now only 3. Yeah, they needed gas alright, because nuclear seems so much worse...

With 17 reactors Germany still consumed a lot of gas. Even if electricity were 100% nuclear, Germany would still consume a lot of gas. Only a small percentage of the gas Germany uses is burned for electricity. Most goes towards heating homes and industrial processes.

Re: Nord Stream: Tie-ins and hyperbaric welding

#123

Post by captainmuon »

rendall wrote: post #67

Everyone seems to know it was Russia and is just casting out ideas to find a plausible motivation. I find that completely baffling. For opportunity, consider that while setting up the pipeline needs a weird high-pressure residence and special training, blowing it up takes a fishing boat, scuba gear and underwater explosives. The equipment and training is cheap and available. So, those with opportunity is almost anyon…

I just hope it wasn't the US. That would be a devastating breach of trust for Germany and would backfire badly if it came out.

I'm rooting for the Danish anarchists. You basically just need underwater explosives and a boat. You hang the explosives on a long rope, throw it over board like an anchor, and drag it into the pipeline. When you hit the pipeline, you detonate the explosives.

Re: Nord Stream: Tie-ins and hyperbaric welding

#124

Post by londons_explore »

piaste wrote: post #108
rendall wrote: post #67

Everyone seems to know it was Russia and is just casting out ideas to find a plausible motivation. I find that completely baffling. For opportunity, consider that while setting up the pipeline needs a weird high-pressure residence and special training, blowing it up takes a fishing boat, scuba gear and underwater explosives. The equipment and training is cheap and available. So, those with opportunity is almost anyon…

I had your exact same reaction, except with the US at the top of the suspects list (or non-governmental agents whose interests align with the US, of which there are plenty). The #1 reason I'm still leaning Russia nevertheless is because of an outside factor: Russia isn't screaming bloody murder about it . If 3/4th of their pipelines had gone up and nobody in the Russian government was involved, Lavrov would already b…

If they'd blown up their own assets, they would blame the west for it anyway no?

Re: Nord Stream: Tie-ins and hyperbaric welding

#125

Post by exDM69 »

rendall wrote: post #121
exDM69 wrote: post #115

Earlier quoted context omitted.

If this act of sabotage was not conducted by nation state actors with submarines, but someone using fishing boats and scuba divers instead like you suggest, the perpetrators will be caught in a manner of days. The straits between the coasts of the southern Baltic sea are one of the most closely guarded waters in the world. There are at least 5 different nations (dk, se, de, pl, ru) coast guard assets with eyes on the…

> the perpetrators will be caught in a manner of days Even assuming all of these nations record the real-time location of every fishing boat, dinghy, yacht and tug-boat; and can play it back and analyze all of the data; and thereby backtrack to port of entry; and then crew; and then investigate all of the false positives within days. Implausible, but ok, assuming. But they can find no one, or all the trails run cold.…

> assuming all of these nations record the real-time location of every fishing boat, dinghy, yacht and tug-boat; and can play it back and analyze all of the data

This is a pretty safe assumption to make. The relevent authorities have this data and are certainly poring through it as we speak.

> Your next go-to idea for the failure would be Russia or the US?

Don't put words in my mouth. I did not allude to anyone in particular, just exclude the possibility of some independent group pulling this off in case the vessels behind sabotage this do not get identified very soon.

Re: Nord Stream: Tie-ins and hyperbaric welding

#126

Post by londons_explore »

Findecanor wrote: post #109
rendall wrote: post #67

Everyone seems to know it was Russia and is just casting out ideas to find a plausible motivation. I find that completely baffling. For opportunity, consider that while setting up the pipeline needs a weird high-pressure residence and special training, blowing it up takes a fishing boat, scuba gear and underwater explosives. The equipment and training is cheap and available. So, those with opportunity is almost anyon…

The three explosion sites are at depths of 70 - 80 meters. That would require a trained diver with professional equipment, or an underwater drone. Not that professional divers don't go deeper. But a recreational scuba diver, with readily available gear would dive to max half that depth.

Could the explosives have been lowered on a rope from a boat with no diver?

Re: Nord Stream: Tie-ins and hyperbaric welding

#127

Post by samastur »

rendall wrote: post #89
5560675260 wrote: post #87

Earlier quoted context omitted.

That would be seen as an act of war and would escalate things quicker than Russia thinks it can handle.

You think that blowing up the Nord Stream pipelines would not be seen as an act of war?

No, because it happened in international waters ON THEIR assets.

Re: Nord Stream: Tie-ins and hyperbaric welding

#128

Post by rendall »

captainmuon wrote: post #123
rendall wrote: post #67

Everyone seems to know it was Russia and is just casting out ideas to find a plausible motivation. I find that completely baffling. For opportunity, consider that while setting up the pipeline needs a weird high-pressure residence and special training, blowing it up takes a fishing boat, scuba gear and underwater explosives. The equipment and training is cheap and available. So, those with opportunity is almost anyon…

I just hope it wasn't the US. That would be a devastating breach of trust for Germany and would backfire badly if it came out. I'm rooting for the Danish anarchists. You basically just need underwater explosives and a boat. You hang the explosives on a long rope, throw it over board like an anchor, and drag it into the pipeline. When you hit the pipeline, you detonate the explosives.

Don't worry. It wasn't the US. Not really our style. Sure, the CIA pulls dirty tricks, but those are quiet, in-the-shadows skullduggery where no one's paying attention. CIA doesn't do big and loud where other Americans can see it.

Plus, motivations are wrong. The US catastrophically ends European energy dependence on Russia so that... it can compete with the Middle East and Russia and Canada on a more equal footing? Yeah, no. The US is not that desperate for cash.

Re: Nord Stream: Tie-ins and hyperbaric welding

#129

Post by semi-extrinsic »

rendall wrote: post #110
nollbit wrote: post #102

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Practically, anyone with access to the Baltic Sea, boats, scuba equipment, underwater explosives could do it, but they couldn't do it undetected. This area is under surveillance from Sweden and Denmark. If you want to do it undetected you need to do it completely underwater, including ingress and egress, and that absolutely limits the potential actors.

You think that Sweden and Denmark surveil every single dinghy and fishing boat and yacht and ferry? That if a tugboat stops for 3 or 4 or 8 hours along the 2400km stretches of the Nord Stream pipelines, the coast guards will swoop in with helicopters and snipers. Yeah, no. No, that would not have happened.

No, but they definitely have the possibility after the event to replay recordings from their very nice naval radar systems to see if there was a surface vessel doing something in those locations.

Also, I understand the depth of the pipeline is 80-100 meters so you need divers experienced with hypoxic trimix (or an ROV) and you need to be able to carry a 50-100 kg payload in addition to all the diving kit. Just to qualify for the training courses to learn this type of diving you need to have logged many hundred dives with gradually increasing equipment complexity, it takes years and years of training.

I don't buy for a second that this is anything else than a nation-state actor with advanced equipment. The community of people in the world whou could dive to these depths and perform any kind of useful work is tiny and close-knit.

Re: Nord Stream: Tie-ins and hyperbaric welding

#130

Post by rendall »

exDM69 wrote: post #125
rendall wrote: post #121

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> the perpetrators will be caught in a manner of days Even assuming all of these nations record the real-time location of every fishing boat, dinghy, yacht and tug-boat; and can play it back and analyze all of the data; and thereby backtrack to port of entry; and then crew; and then investigate all of the false positives within days. Implausible, but ok, assuming. But they can find no one, or all the trails run cold.…

> assuming all of these nations record the real-time location of every fishing boat, dinghy, yacht and tug-boat; and can play it back and analyze all of the data This is a pretty safe assumption to make. The relevent authorities have this data and are certainly poring through it as we speak. > Your next go-to idea for the failure would be Russia or the US? Don't put words in my mouth. I did not allude to anyone in pa…

Ok, fair point.

I agree that the various coast guards are extremely competent and coordinated, and are poring over the data that they have now. I disagree that capture is inevitable unless submarine.

Post reply on HN