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Gas Leak in the Baltic Sea

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Re: Gas Leak in the Baltic Sea

#721

Post by 3guk »

seren wrote: post #156
bskan wrote: post #21

Now realistically how much time would it take to fix something like this?

If it is fixable, I am not sure how you can make sure it does not happen again. I am not sure how you are supposed to survey hundreds of kilometers of underwater pipeline.

I mean it’s probably quite tricky to keep a constant eye on every KM of both pipelines - but given the number of surveys involved just to get NS2 to a state where it could originally be pressurised - before they went bankrupt. I would say you could at least do semi regular inspections using ROVs.

Re: Gas Leak in the Baltic Sea

#722

Post by jmyeet »

yznovyak wrote: post #449
eloff wrote: post #113

Earlier quoted context omitted.

So that doesn't look like an accident. I have difficulty imagining accidental ignition in an underwater gas pipeline. Where would the oxygen come from? Plus it's more than one explosion on the same day - can't be a coincidence. The next question is, who did it? It doesn't seem like something in Russia's interest, they've been wanting to get that pipeline approved and operational. They invested huge sums of money to b…

Common theme I've heard here (Kyiv, Ukraine) is that this sabotage is in Putin's direct interest. There are rumours of political infighting among Russia's leaders and that there are several factions trying to seize power, however since there is no clear winner, those guys need powerful allies, EU being a very important one. The idea is that Europe really wants to buy Russian gas, but not from Putin, so if Russia some…

Online I've seen some takes that America is responsible for this. I get why. America's foreign policy has done and continues to do some appalling things (eg any number of coups). The idea is that the US doesn't want Europe to be reliant on Russian gas or that Russia may be able to use the prospect of that gas (coming into winter) to sway Europe with respect to Ukraine.

I don't buy it. The blowback potential would be enormous. It's also not America's style. Coups? Sure. Unjustified military action? Absolutely. Directly destroying infrastructure of critical importance to supposed allies? I have trouble seeing it.

If this is by human action (which seems entirely possible) then Russia seems the most likely suspect. The counterargument is that why would Russia destroy something that they're dependant on? Sure Russia isn't selling gas today but the possiblity of them selling it in the future has value (to Russia and Europe).

But Russia, like probably every country and certainly the US, is not a monolith. There are competing interests. Putin is reportedly facing dissent for how badly the war in Ukraine is going. Russia has hardline nationalists, those who are anti-war and other factions.

The example I'm reminded of from history is Cortez who 500 years ago upon arriving in South America burned his ships. Why? So there'd be no way out. There could be no mutiny if there was no means of escape.

So sabotaging the pipeline could be to undermine the anti-war movement who might seek to oust Putin and resume trade with Europe. It might well solidify any wavering nationalists. Who knows?

Another theory: Russia is demonstrating a capability. I think that makes less sense.

Re: Gas Leak in the Baltic Sea

#723

Post by driggs »

some0x80070005 wrote: post #688
driggs wrote: post #518

Does anyone know the rate at which these leaks are spewing methane into the atmosphere, and how quickly this pipeline can be shut off (if it isn't already)?

I’ve heard somewhere between 300-400 kilograms gas per second. The pipeline has already been shut off for weeks, but it’ll take days for all the gas that’s already in the line at elevated pressures to leak out. It’s an enormous amount of gas.

That's an insane amount of a very potent greenhouse gas. Seems like it'd be better to strike a match and flare it off as CO2 instead of methane, which has 80 times the greenhouse warming effect of CO2.

Thanks!

Re: Gas Leak in the Baltic Sea

#724

Post by greedo »

NeverFade wrote: post #396
pphysch wrote: post #195

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The Russians blew up their own brand-new pipeline, which they spend billions creating (jointly with the Germans) and is one of the few major "hopes" to salvage that relationship, especially as winter dawns. That's frankly absurd. Russia almost certainly sabotaged a LNG terminal in Texas a few months ago (industrial cyberattack). This act was almost certainly done by Washington or their proxies. It drives the wedge fu…

> The Russians blew up their own brand-new pipeline, which they spend billions creating (jointly with the Germans) and is one of the few major "hopes" to salvage that relationship, especially as winter dawns. There is no "salvaging the relationship" for the current regime. No gas will flow in these pipelines while Putin is in power, and the EU has already prepared alternatives: https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles…

I remember Tiananmen Square. People were horrified at the barbaric reaction of the PRC to peaceful protests. Thirty plus years later, they are one of the world's largest trading partners. Despite their barbaric treatment of the Uighars. So I don't believe that countries won't salvage their "relationship" with Russia given half a chance.

Re: Gas Leak in the Baltic Sea

#725

Post by SanjayMehta »

yznovyak wrote: post #449
eloff wrote: post #113

Earlier quoted context omitted.

So that doesn't look like an accident. I have difficulty imagining accidental ignition in an underwater gas pipeline. Where would the oxygen come from? Plus it's more than one explosion on the same day - can't be a coincidence. The next question is, who did it? It doesn't seem like something in Russia's interest, they've been wanting to get that pipeline approved and operational. They invested huge sums of money to b…

Common theme I've heard here (Kyiv, Ukraine) is that this sabotage is in Putin's direct interest. There are rumours of political infighting among Russia's leaders and that there are several factions trying to seize power, however since there is no clear winner, those guys need powerful allies, EU being a very important one. The idea is that Europe really wants to buy Russian gas, but not from Putin, so if Russia some…

Russia could have just turned off the tap.

The sabotage ensures Europe can't back off from the US sanctions now.

Wrecks Germany's economy, thereby eliminating a rival. VW et al are already talking about moving production to the US.

And Biden promised to take care of NS 2 back in February itself.

https://youtu.be/OS4O8rGRLf8

Re: Gas Leak in the Baltic Sea

#726

Post by ordu »

thiagoharry wrote: post #585
smsm42 wrote: post #514

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> they've been wanting to get that pipeline approved and operational Not recently. Recently, they pulled out a string of excuses to send less and less gas over (turbine bing repaired, sanctions, etc.) to show Europe their leverage. They don't feel any lack of money currently, and they know with current hydrocarbon prices, they have options to sell, even if at discount, and no money shortages currently. So they're bet…

This makes no sense. Without the gas, Russia loses leverage and there would be no dependence of Russian hydrocarbons. Germany always could buy more expensive gas from Ukraine and USA, and now they have no other choice.

The whole war makes no sense. Putin had lost his senses.

1. Putin seriously cite Dugin[1]. Putin acts like he believes this bullshit.

2. There was a lot of people who on different occasions told "Putin wouldn't do that, it would make no sense", so then Putin could prove them wrong later by doing it. This war is one of examples of that kind. Or MH17: why to hit a plane with a missile? There was no sense in it. But it just happened. Why to massacre people in Bucha? It makes no sense.

So, when you talk about Russia the argument "makes no sense" doesn't mean anything. If it made no sense in an alternate reality were Putin resides, then it might be an interesting argument. But in his alternate reality it makes perfect sense to stop selling gas to EU.

[1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Aleksandr_Dugin

Re: Gas Leak in the Baltic Sea

#727

Post by mercy_dude »

tpmx wrote: post #54

The Swedish national seismic network picked up two explosions within kilometers of the reported gas leak locations yesterday. The time of the first explosion: Yesterday, Monday morning at 02:03 am, second one Monday evening at 7:04pm (local time, CEST). The reports of the gas leaks came at 1:52pm and 8:41pm, respectively - by means of ships reporting bubbling at the surface level. One of the two events registered at…

https://twitter.com/ABC/status/1490792461979078662

Re: Gas Leak in the Baltic Sea

#728

Post by verbify »

ARandomerDude wrote: post #629
nivenkos wrote: post #592

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Why? The USA has absolute power over Europe. This is just a demonstration of that. No country will complain or do anything. And it'll just be forgotten about like the extraordinary renditions, the May 1947 crises, etc.

What happened in May 1947?

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/May_1947_crises

Re: Gas Leak in the Baltic Sea

#729

Post by whatshisface »

yznovyak wrote: post #449
eloff wrote: post #113

Earlier quoted context omitted.

So that doesn't look like an accident. I have difficulty imagining accidental ignition in an underwater gas pipeline. Where would the oxygen come from? Plus it's more than one explosion on the same day - can't be a coincidence. The next question is, who did it? It doesn't seem like something in Russia's interest, they've been wanting to get that pipeline approved and operational. They invested huge sums of money to b…

Common theme I've heard here (Kyiv, Ukraine) is that this sabotage is in Putin's direct interest. There are rumours of political infighting among Russia's leaders and that there are several factions trying to seize power, however since there is no clear winner, those guys need powerful allies, EU being a very important one. The idea is that Europe really wants to buy Russian gas, but not from Putin, so if Russia some…

There is no way to shut the gas production down for long enough for Europe to transition to renewables, the most they could do would be to cause Europe an immense amount of suffering while everyone rushed in to post-Putin Russia to repair the sabotage.

Re: Gas Leak in the Baltic Sea

#730

Post by MomoXenosaga »

pphysch wrote: post #279
FiberBundle wrote: post #270

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It's really not that absurd. The fact that it looks entirely irrational for Russia to do this is exactly why they might have done it. Their intent is to cause division in the West. They could potentially hope for EU countries to blame the US or Ukraine for this. If you read Twitter trends you already see an army of Russian bots pushing the theory that the US has done this.

> The fact that it looks entirely irrational for Russia to do this is exactly why they might have done it. Any analysis predicated on "the enemy is perfectly irrational and will not act according their interests" is not analysis. It's untethered from reality, which is convenient, because you can support any conclusion you desire. Robert McNamara's #1 life lesson was "empathize with your enemy" (he dealt with the Cuba…

Putin was not content with having his fiefdom and threatened Western security interests by blowing up the post WW2 global order. He stepped out of line and now Russia suffers for it. That's the realism. China knows it and that's why they aren't backing him. This isn't about ideology, democracy or human rights. This is warlord invoking the wrath of imperial gunboats.
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