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Apple Car: Bad Idea After All

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Re: Apple Car: Bad Idea After All

#271

Post by greedo »

VBprogrammer wrote: post #89
rootusrootus wrote: post #53

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> while a well-made electric car can run to a million miles over 50+ years That is a big claim, which is completely unsupported by reality. ICEVs do not get recycled because the engine died. Body rot, repairs that cost more than the value of the car, etc, this is why cars are taken off the road. If anything, the current batch of early generation EVs are probably going to have shorter than average lifespans compared t…

There is a someone on YouTube who works driving HGVs for a large vehicle recycling company in the UK. I'm often surprised by the cars that are considered end of life. Cars which I still think of as recent models. It would be great to see some statistics but to me most of the cars he picks up require some kind of major repair work making it uneconomical to fix. Often not the engine admittedly, the vast majority can dr…

I live in the Midwest (US) and all I see is cars rotting. Cars under 5 years where the owner doesn't take care of the paint (wash/wax etc) and the wheel wells start to rust off. I even play a game with my kids where we watch for "Pavement Princess" trucks that have rust.

Re: Apple Car: Bad Idea After All

#273

Post by greedo »

taylodl wrote: post #115

What if Apple moved sideways and got into the electric motor scooter market instead and displacing the likes of Vespa? If they keep the power low enough (no freeway driving here!) then most states wouldn't require a special endorsement to ride it. It would be the ultimate cafe runner! Hipsters, college students, high school students, and suburban folks needing to drive everywhere would love it - and it would be reduc…

The market for that (in terms of $$) would be a rounding error when compared to what they make on the AppleTV.

Re: Apple Car: Bad Idea After All

#274

Post by concinds »

fdye wrote: post #26

So I've always wondered if Apple actually building a 'car' was ever really the goal. It seems like a skunkworks where they try crazy things and then incorporate into Carplay. Future seems to be ever expanding Carplay support. I use it and probably would not buy another car that did not have it integrated. I imagine car manufacturers are somewhat tired of always building HUDs and in vehicle control systems. So gradual…

Strongly disagree with this; we have many indications that Apple's efforts aren't just on CarPlay.

First, Apple's car project is clearly mostly focused on self-driving (tying into Apple's mapping efforts). To steelman your argument, it's possible that Apple's just trying to develop self-driving software that car companies can just adopt into their cars, but that would be absolutely unprecedented for Apple; they just don't do licensing deals like this. The fact that Apple's developing self-driving AI means that either they plan on rolling out a consumer car, or rolling out a robotaxi service (as a subscription service, which Apple is interested in). It's either licensing, or using it for their own cars; there's no scenario where self-driving is built-into CarPlay, since if you forgot your phone, your car wouldn't work; and it wouldn't work for Android users either. Self-driving will never be a CarPlay/Android Auto feature that "plugs into" a "dumb car". Too finicky.

Second, Apple's clearly investing heavily in car hardware and all related technologies (battery, etc). The most informed people on Apple are Mark Gurman and Ming-Chi Kuo, and they both agree that Apple's developing its own car hardware. See, for example, a 20-year Lamborghini vehicle R&D veteran hired to help design the car just two months ago.[0] That goes far, far beyond CarPlay. Kevin Lynch (who was in charge of Apple Watch) took over the project. There's tons of indications that this is about hardware, not just software.

Personally, I feel it would be better for Apple to design an electric bike than a car; but hey. Car likely comes first, then bike (just like: VR goggles first, then AR/XR glasses). Also far more ways to integrate content consumption (TV, Music) and productivity features in a car.

[0]: https://www.macrumors.com/2022/07/27/apple-car-lamborghini-e...

Re: Apple Car: Bad Idea After All

#275

Post by samatman »

dylan604 wrote: post #63
SomeCallMeTim wrote: post #23

Given the number of times I've seen a reported, verified bug in OS X be "fixed" by hiding the bug from the public tracker and marking it "will not fix," I would have a hard time ever trusting a car made by Apple. Apple also makes their products to be disposable, seemingly as part of the culture, while a well-made electric car can run to a million miles over 50+ years. That's a very different build philosophy. The key…

>while a well-made electric car can run to a million miles over 50+ years. That's a very different build philosophy. I'm trying to decide if this is something you actually think or is incredibly thick hyperbole. Why would you say a well-made electric car could run that many miles rather than the 200k+ mile cars that actually exist?

EVs are dramatically less complex than ICE cars, there's much less to break.

The transmission, for example, can't break, because there isn't one.

Getting the equivalent of a million miles in RPM out of electric motors is utterly routine.

They also wear brakes substantially less because of regeneration.

There are a lot of reasons to believe they'll last a lot longer than ICE cars.

Re: Apple Car: Bad Idea After All

#276

Post by waldothedog »

concinds wrote: post #274
fdye wrote: post #26

So I've always wondered if Apple actually building a 'car' was ever really the goal. It seems like a skunkworks where they try crazy things and then incorporate into Carplay. Future seems to be ever expanding Carplay support. I use it and probably would not buy another car that did not have it integrated. I imagine car manufacturers are somewhat tired of always building HUDs and in vehicle control systems. So gradual…

Strongly disagree with this; we have many indications that Apple's efforts aren't just on CarPlay. First, Apple's car project is clearly mostly focused on self-driving (tying into Apple's mapping efforts). To steelman your argument, it's possible that Apple's just trying to develop self-driving software that car companies can just adopt into their cars, but that would be absolutely unprecedented for Apple; they just…

I would be inclined to agree that it’d unlikely apple provides self-driving software to other manufacturers, but wouldn’t iTunes on windows be somewhat similar? Create must-have software to drive adoption of some other hardware? (Phone?)

Re: Apple Car: Bad Idea After All

#277

Post by lmm »

hindsightbias wrote: post #136
fdye wrote: post #26

So I've always wondered if Apple actually building a 'car' was ever really the goal. It seems like a skunkworks where they try crazy things and then incorporate into Carplay. Future seems to be ever expanding Carplay support. I use it and probably would not buy another car that did not have it integrated. I imagine car manufacturers are somewhat tired of always building HUDs and in vehicle control systems. So gradual…

> functionality everyone wants Depressing if manufacturers and users want more chip/software dependencies after the last two years of supply chain fun.

Getting cars onto portable, standardised software makes the chips much more of a commodity and should reduce supply chain issues a lot - you go from needing to source xyz specific microcontroller to just needing to source "a chip that can run iOS/android version x".

Re: Apple Car: Bad Idea After All

#278

Post by scarface74 »

qaq wrote: post #255
scarface74 wrote: post #242

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Yes just like every startup. “We had 1% of the market and grew to 2%. We doubled in the last year and are growing much faster than the incumbents”. In what rational world should Tesla have a PE of 20x GM?

We will pretty much know in the next few years. If they deliver 2 mil in 2023 and 4mil in 2024 that would be a very good indicator.

And that will still be less than 1/4 the number of cars that Toyota sells and won’t justify its valuation by any realistic criteria.

Re: Apple Car: Bad Idea After All

#279

Post by giobox »

wwweston wrote: post #263
sytelus wrote: post #205

Earlier quoted context omitted.

HUDs are the small part of the story. far more important thing is what sensors you have access to and what can you control? Car manufactures are notoriously behind and bad on properly expanding and standardizing both sensors and controls. So, it is impossible to deliver consistent experience and capabilities. Even in 2022, most manufacturer haven't still figured out how to do firmware update without using USB drives.…

> Even in 2022, most manufacturer haven't still figured out how to do firmware update without using USB drives. This... makes sense to me? Physical access and automotive service go hand-in-hand. Over-the-air presents update hell and security issues.

Why does it not present hell in any other use case, such as computers, phones and games consoles, or actual cars on sale today? Why aren't Tesla or Rivian owners collectively going crazy - there are over 1 million Teslas receiving updates approximately every two weeks? These arguments do not appear to be borne by any evidence in reality.

It's not like physical car repair places have some amazing flawless track record either... Physical access and the servicing of electrical devices do not need to always go hand in hand in 2022.

Re: Apple Car: Bad Idea After All

#280

Post by blinkingled »

jononomo wrote: post #102

I wish Toyota would partner with Apple for their internal maps, screen, controls, etc. Toyota seems to have a major problem with intuitive usability (especially for my parents who are in their 80s). Toyota is the largest car company in the world and makes the most reliable vehicles in the world, but they need that extra touch to take them to the next level. Just as I would never by a phone that is not an iPhone, or a…

Right, give up all control over infotainment to Apple of all companies - that'll surely work well for them.

At least with something open source they retain some control. Besides Toyota has already got you and me both because they're who they are - and part of that is they are actively involved with their suppliers and even own them in part.

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