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Gas Leak in the Baltic Sea

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Re: Gas Leak in the Baltic Sea

#631

Post by scottLobster »

mort96 wrote: post #615
thiagoharry wrote: post #578

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Why is Putin direct interest destroy a source of income and leverage to the country!?!? Now Germany can buy gas from 2 sources: Ukraine and USA. This explanation makes no sense to me.

It should be extremely clear that the health of Russia as a country isn't Putin's primary goal. If (and it's a big "if") destroying a source of income or leverage to the country can make Putin safer against assassination and coup attempts, I don't see why he wouldn't do it.

Winning the war in Ukraine, however, is a primary objective. Wasn't his whole plan to energy-starve Europe over the winter until they came crawling back?

The only way Putin has a remote chance of winning the war at this point is if western support stops, destroying the one mechanism that might actually do that seems counterproductive.

Re: Gas Leak in the Baltic Sea

#632

Post by Symmetry »

ARandomerDude wrote: post #623
Symmetry wrote: post #464

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The problem is that the technical resources required to pull something like this off don't seem to be all that high. You need a ton or so of explosives which is the hard part, a delayed fuse, a water proof container, a camera and light that work underwater, and some winches to deploy the camera and then the bomb. It wouldn't surprise me if almost every nation in Europe could pull this off if they put their minds to i…

You also need to be able to operate undetected with multiple navies patrolling the area. That is the hard part, it seems to me.

A fishing boat would be a good cover. They're going to be wandering around the Baltic and are expected to have the necessary winches on deck.

Re: Gas Leak in the Baltic Sea

#633

Post by djvdq »

ajsnigrutin wrote: post #178
pelorat wrote: post #140

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I'm sure you have heard about these technical problems Russia is having with the terminal on their side, the technical problems they claim are behind the reason the gas is turned off? Well it's not really technical problems, it's "technical problems" because otherwise the shut off would have been contact violations. This is no different, now they can keep the gas off without violating international trade law.

Russia can close the valves and noone can do anything. But russia would want the valves to be the only obstacle between their gas and germany, so germany would always have an option to sit down with russia, make some kind of a deal, and the same day, gas could be reopened. Now, with the pipes destroyed, it will probably take months to fix them, and even if people in germany protest against their governments, the talk…

USA is already selling as much gas as they can. They can't sell more than now due to technical limitations.

Re: Gas Leak in the Baltic Sea

#634

Post by smsm42 »

cdash wrote: post #614
smsm42 wrote: post #514

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> they've been wanting to get that pipeline approved and operational Not recently. Recently, they pulled out a string of excuses to send less and less gas over (turbine bing repaired, sanctions, etc.) to show Europe their leverage. They don't feel any lack of money currently, and they know with current hydrocarbon prices, they have options to sell, even if at discount, and no money shortages currently. So they're bet…

They stopped sending gas over on Nord Stream 1 with the excuse of maintenance and repairs specifically as leverage for Germany to sign off on opening their brand new pipeline Nord Stream 2 for business. Now, both pipelines have been blown up. It doesn't make any sense for it to have been Russia.

Why not? If it is stopped by the Russian order, Russians violated the contract. If it is stopped because unknown terrorists blew up the pipeline, it's force majeure, Gazprom is in the clear.

Also, they have one more pipeline left. Which they are also threatening to - guess what? - shut down.

https://www-moscowtimes-ru.translate.goog/2022/09/27/gazprom...

Doesn't make sense for it to be Russia? Or does it now?

Re: Gas Leak in the Baltic Sea

#635

Post by RationPhantoms »

abathur wrote: post #549
eloff wrote: post #113

Earlier quoted context omitted.

So that doesn't look like an accident. I have difficulty imagining accidental ignition in an underwater gas pipeline. Where would the oxygen come from? Plus it's more than one explosion on the same day - can't be a coincidence. The next question is, who did it? It doesn't seem like something in Russia's interest, they've been wanting to get that pipeline approved and operational. They invested huge sums of money to b…

IDK about the details underlying the argument (whether the contract is actually structured this way, etc.), but https://mobile.twitter.com/nierobmitak/status/15747490369129... mentioned the possibility that the contracts entail fines for non-delivery (which they might not have to pay if the pipeline is unusable).

Isn't that also why billionaires close to Russia have been "dying"? Their assets would be property of the state ergo Putin's coffers.

Re: Gas Leak in the Baltic Sea

#636

Post by ARandomerDude »

phpthrowaway99 wrote: post #550
aredox wrote: post #507

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Yes, Ukraine's famous Baltic sea combat divers.

This entire war has been an exercise in Ukraine using other people's resources to attack Russia. If they wanted to I'm sure the US and Ukraine could figure out how to get this done.

You mean when Ukraine invaded Russia this past February?

Re: Gas Leak in the Baltic Sea

#637

Post by eternalban »

Paradigma11 wrote: post #610
eternalban wrote: post #551

Earlier quoted context omitted.

This is not an act in the same level as the Ukraine-Russia war. This is a very top level geopolitical attack. This appears to be in international waters so it will be interesting when forensic results are published. It can not possibly be in Russia's interest. They could easily nix NS2 at source. And now, even if diplomacy or desperation brings Russia to reach a peace deal with Ukraine, NS2 is out of commission for a…

I think it was the Russians trying to sow discord and distrust within the western allies. Nobody was going to use this pipeline in the near future anyway, so there is no immediate cost for Russia. If there really should be a lifting of the sanctions then there would be enough time to repair the pipeline....done and paid by the germans.

As I mentioned this, or other variants I've seen being posted in twitter, with Russia doing this does not compute.

A kilometer wide gas bubble on surface indicates substantial damage. I think it safe to assume that sea water in pipe further damages an additional length of pipeline. German government (or any future one with surprise ala Italy) no longer has the option of giving in to economic and social pressures and making up with Russia before this winter. That option is gone. Russia would be monumentally stupid to lose that option. That was a negotiation card! This is what NS going bye bye means.

Someone mentioned elsewhere that this is the response to the referendums that RF just held. This somehow sounds right.

Generally don't like to be pessimistic, but this action (whoever did it does not matter, unless some random terror group) indicates that whoever did it has already determined that there will be war. [The real thing not the far away affair on social media] They know this but they are not going to announce it to us until absolutely necessary. There is no way there can be global peace after powers start destroying infrastructure at this level. There will be a contest of strength (we're past the will part) after which pipelines and satellites will once again be safe.

p.s. in case it is not clear, I've changed my opinion a bit in this reply. "Risks" may not be relevant because it is understood (and this action was basically a turn in the game with an escalation) that there is going to be, has to be, a showdown. There will be war.

Re: Gas Leak in the Baltic Sea

#638

Post by elihu »

rufusroflpunch wrote: post #32
cm2187 wrote: post #4

I read talks of sabotage but I struggle to understand the point, surely russia wouldn’t sabotage their own pipelines (they can just shut them) and I understand they are not in use right now. In fact doesn’t that mean that the pipeline will be flooded? Is that recoverable?

Russia doesn't really stand to gain here. Ukraine and the United States stand to gain the most by removing the option for Europe to capitulate to Russia this winter. Ukraine isn't on the Baltic Sea, but do they need to be? Honestly, I don't know the resources that would be required to accomplish this. Would some special forces with diving equipment and a fishing boat be enough?

> Would some special forces with diving equipment and a fishing boat be enough?

Might not even need divers. Just a fishing boat, a GPS, a limpet mine, and a few hundred feet of rope. Dangle the mine in the water at the right depth as you cross the path of the pipeline and let go when it attaches. Set the timer for weeks or months so you're long gone by the time anyone starts investigating.

(If the pipelines are made of a non-magnetic material like stainless steel maybe you'd need to do something more sophisticated.)

Maybe we'll know more once investigators inspect the damage, but I think practically anyone could have done this based on what we know so far.

Re: Gas Leak in the Baltic Sea

#639

Post by Calvin02 »

dongobongo wrote: post #573
dongobongo wrote: post #99

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Act of war by USA? (equivalent if done through ally)

More evidence: https://michaelshellenberger.substack.com/p/us-blew-up-russi...

In English, evidence, conjecture, and pure speculation are very different things. This would qualify, at best, as speculation. :)

Re: Gas Leak in the Baltic Sea

#640

Post by smsm42 »

thiagoharry wrote: post #585
smsm42 wrote: post #514

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> they've been wanting to get that pipeline approved and operational Not recently. Recently, they pulled out a string of excuses to send less and less gas over (turbine bing repaired, sanctions, etc.) to show Europe their leverage. They don't feel any lack of money currently, and they know with current hydrocarbon prices, they have options to sell, even if at discount, and no money shortages currently. So they're bet…

This makes no sense. Without the gas, Russia loses leverage and there would be no dependence of Russian hydrocarbons. Germany always could buy more expensive gas from Ukraine and USA, and now they have no other choice.

Pipelines can be fixed. If Germany behaves. There's always a choice. Also, there are other ways to get the gas and the oil there.
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