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Gas Leak in the Baltic Sea

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Re: Gas Leak in the Baltic Sea

#621

Post by NaturalPhallacy »

toopok4k3 wrote: post #44
Sebb767 wrote: post #22

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> RUptured Hard to believe, they have nothing to gain from this.

Yeah, like they have much to gain in Ukraine either. It's not like they are a rational actor at this stage.

Except maybe the Russian speaking ethnically Russian separatists in the Donbass region of Ukraine? (from before the 2022 propaganda started): https://www.dw.com/en/ukraine-the-forgotten-victims-of-donba...

Story from 2018: https://www.kyivpost.com/ukraine-politics/about-40000-ukrain...

So many seem to have just swallowed anything and everything the US propaganda has put out this year and know absolutely nothing about the last 10 years of Ukrainian history.

From last year, Drone strikes and violation of the Minks Agreements by Ukraine: https://nationalinterest.org/feature/ukraine%E2%80%99s-recen...

Russia's invasion does seem absolutely batshit unless you do even 10 minutes of digging on the subject: https://search.brave.com/search?q=ukraine+donbass&source=web...

There are Russians in Ukraine and Russia is fighting for them. How is that irrational? You can argue they're wrong to do it, or that they shouldn't. But irrational? Nonsense.

Re: Gas Leak in the Baltic Sea

#622

Post by trasz »

ajsnigrutin wrote: post #236
belorn wrote: post #42

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Since there is no direct effect (the pipelines has been out of use for a long time), the effect must be indirect. As such we can't know and will likely never know for sure why it happened or by whom. It could be Russia. Russia is the prime suspect in 99% of the cases when there is a hostile military operation on Swedish/Danish water. It isn't like Russia were using the pipelines, and it possible that spinning this as…

Why would russia want that? People in most of eu are getting angry at their governments and demand some sort of negotiations so the pipes get reopened before people start freezing to death in their homes. With pipes destroyed, even if people get mad, most governments can now just say "there's nothing we can do".

“Freezing to death” is just Putin’s propaganda; even before war Russian gas was about 30% of imports, now it’s no longer necessary at all: https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-09-27/europe-is...

Re: Gas Leak in the Baltic Sea

#623

Post by ARandomerDude »

Symmetry wrote: post #464
eloff wrote: post #113

Earlier quoted context omitted.

So that doesn't look like an accident. I have difficulty imagining accidental ignition in an underwater gas pipeline. Where would the oxygen come from? Plus it's more than one explosion on the same day - can't be a coincidence. The next question is, who did it? It doesn't seem like something in Russia's interest, they've been wanting to get that pipeline approved and operational. They invested huge sums of money to b…

The problem is that the technical resources required to pull something like this off don't seem to be all that high. You need a ton or so of explosives which is the hard part, a delayed fuse, a water proof container, a camera and light that work underwater, and some winches to deploy the camera and then the bomb. It wouldn't surprise me if almost every nation in Europe could pull this off if they put their minds to i…

You also need to be able to operate undetected with multiple navies patrolling the area. That is the hard part, it seems to me.

Re: Gas Leak in the Baltic Sea

#624

Post by LawTalkingGuy »

libertine wrote: post #506
phpthrowaway99 wrote: post #495

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Russia's greatest leverage was Europe needing their gas, and eventually agreeing to stop supporting Ukraine in order to get the gas turned back on. Now if the pipelines are destroyed, no matter how cold and angry citizens in the EU get, EU leadership has no reason to give in to Russian since that now won't get the gas turned back on. If anything, this points to Ukraine or the US doing it.

>Russia's greatest leverage was Europe needing their gas, and eventually agreeing to stop supporting Ukraine in order to get the gas turned back on. That boat has sailed some time ago - you don't need to destroy something that's guaranteed it won't be used for decades probably, if ever again. No country in the West will do any trade with Russia under Putin. There's simply no turning back when you throw diplomacy and…

It's hugely positive for Ukraine. They'd have done it on day-one if it wouldn't have looked bad. Less income for Russia, less for Russia to divide its allies with.

This is a strong negative for Russia. They had control of the pipeline and thus could dangle the offer of gas, now they cannot. Their leverage is gone.

Re: Gas Leak in the Baltic Sea

#625

Post by ajsnigrutin »

trasz wrote: post #622
ajsnigrutin wrote: post #236

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Why would russia want that? People in most of eu are getting angry at their governments and demand some sort of negotiations so the pipes get reopened before people start freezing to death in their homes. With pipes destroyed, even if people get mad, most governments can now just say "there's nothing we can do".

“Freezing to death” is just Putin’s propaganda; even before war Russian gas was about 30% of imports, now it’s no longer necessary at all: https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-09-27/europe-is...

So, why are the politicians telling people not to heat their houses above 19°C, to wear sweaters at home, to limit showers to a few minutes and why are eg. steel mills already shutting down in germany?

Re: Gas Leak in the Baltic Sea

#626

Post by runarb »

saiya-jin wrote: post #476
aredox wrote: post #381

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It is in Russia's interest: this is their last warning before the North Sea pipelines blow up too.

I'd vote for Russia too, not direct evidence obviously but makes more sense than anybody else. Elites who decide see that EU wants and will cut itself off from Russia anyway, just a question of when and its coming soon. So harsh punishment of this pesky EU right before winter starts to feel the consequences of daring to break away from Russian dependence. Russia made tons of money in past months on oil and gas due to…

> Its political and military move. Realistically only US and Russia

> have the capacity to do 3 attacks like this simultaneously.

No need to do 3 attacks simultaneously. An attacker could have placed explosives there some time ago and the detonated it remotely now.

Formar Naval Special Operator and now teacher in marine engineering and doctoral student at the Swedish Försvarshögskolan, Patrik Hulterström, alleged that "An experienced diver can in theory manage it himself" according to https://www.vg.no/nyheter/utenriks/i/4ozy8o/orlogskaptein-tr... ( in Norwegian).

Re: Gas Leak in the Baltic Sea

#627

Post by zmgsabst »

LargoLasskhyfv wrote: post #526
ed_balls wrote: post #305

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> patrol boat dropping some depth charges on a time delay in the middle of the night That's also an option, but you would have problems with precision and deniability*. You could use some WW2 style device and blame it on German mines that are still present.

If you knew the exact position of the pipes, why would there be a problem with precision? Maybe there are lighthouses in sight which you could use to line up exactly, maybe you'd use gps/glonass, maybe you'd have some plane go by near at a specified time, doing it for you, saying via radio, all good, drop it?

How much does an object drift in 100m of water and how accurate do you need to be?

Re: Gas Leak in the Baltic Sea

#628

Post by Paradigma11 »

pphysch wrote: post #195
NeverFade wrote: post #154

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> The next question is, who did it? The Russians. > It doesn't seem like something in Russia's interest, they've been wanting to get that pipeline approved and operational. Once their invasion faltered, and with the recent escalation, they had no hope of that happening. The current Russian regime will never be able to repair relations with the west to the extent that will allow the Nordstream pipelines to resume oper…

The Russians blew up their own brand-new pipeline, which they spend billions creating (jointly with the Germans) and is one of the few major "hopes" to salvage that relationship, especially as winter dawns. That's frankly absurd. Russia almost certainly sabotaged a LNG terminal in Texas a few months ago (industrial cyberattack). This act was almost certainly done by Washington or their proxies. It drives the wedge fu…

Pretty sure the repair can be done before there is any chance the sanctions would be lifted. So Russia doesnt really lose anything important but is able to sow discord, mistrust and generally raise the fear level about gas supply.

Re: Gas Leak in the Baltic Sea

#629

Post by ARandomerDude »

nivenkos wrote: post #592
protomyth wrote: post #555

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I somehow think the USA would have done it with a bit less big explosion solution.

Why? The USA has absolute power over Europe. This is just a demonstration of that. No country will complain or do anything. And it'll just be forgotten about like the extraordinary renditions, the May 1947 crises, etc.

What happened in May 1947?

Re: Gas Leak in the Baltic Sea

#630

Post by gnull »

mort96 wrote: post #615
thiagoharry wrote: post #578

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Why is Putin direct interest destroy a source of income and leverage to the country!?!? Now Germany can buy gas from 2 sources: Ukraine and USA. This explanation makes no sense to me.

It should be extremely clear that the health of Russia as a country isn't Putin's primary goal. If (and it's a big "if") destroying a source of income or leverage to the country can make Putin safer against assassination and coup attempts, I don't see why he wouldn't do it.

Absolutely. This line of thought actually best explains a lot of things he was doing in the last months and maybe years.
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