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Gas Leak in the Baltic Sea

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Re: Gas Leak in the Baltic Sea

#551

Post by eternalban »

phpthrowaway99 wrote: post #495
aredox wrote: post #381

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It is in Russia's interest: this is their last warning before the North Sea pipelines blow up too.

Russia's greatest leverage was Europe needing their gas, and eventually agreeing to stop supporting Ukraine in order to get the gas turned back on. Now if the pipelines are destroyed, no matter how cold and angry citizens in the EU get, EU leadership has no reason to give in to Russian since that now won't get the gas turned back on. If anything, this points to Ukraine or the US doing it.

This is not an act in the same level as the Ukraine-Russia war. This is a very top level geopolitical attack. This appears to be in international waters so it will be interesting when forensic results are published.

It can not possibly be in Russia's interest. They could easily nix NS2 at source. And now, even if diplomacy or desperation brings Russia to reach a peace deal with Ukraine, NS2 is out of commission for a long time. Does not compute.

US and UK certainly did not want NS2 and Biden did promise to "end it" if Russia invaded Ukraine. And the same day a Polish pipeline opens. But this is exceptionally risky if forensics turns up evidence that points to them. For one, it's an act of war against a fellow NATO member (Germany) and Russia; two, it sets a precedent that an island nation such as UK (with a lot of strategic pipes running in and out of it under Atlantic) can ill afford. So the risk factor seems to argue against that (though motive and who-benefits are clearly there).

Germany? It is possible that German deep state is not united. There are Atlantists and those who assert that German and Russian coexistence is optimal. The former faction could have done this to basically close that temptation/option to German government.

So that last group is imo the most likely culprit. [Honest question: if CIA acts covertly with say German special services (and not telling the guy in DC, you know, "need to know" and all that /g) and they do this, does that technically mean US committed an act of war or only CIA?]

p.s. whoever did this, it is a great advertisement for LNG delivered by ship escorted by blue water navies. This event just showed that gaspipelines are not and can not be strategically reliable energy conduits. They are trivially taken out of commission and repair (even if possible) will require great deal of time and resources to complete.

Re: Gas Leak in the Baltic Sea

#552

Post by ROTMetro »

ajsnigrutin wrote: post #203
xyzzyz wrote: post #105

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Ukraine invasion showed that Russia really doesn’t need much in a way of excuse to start a war. I don’t understand why people talk about “casus beli” as if life today was Europa Universalis game. When power want to start a war, they do.

A couple of years of ukranians shelling the prorussian regions were a good enough reason.... considering that nato used the same one to bomb serbia in 1999.

2021 only had 18 civilian deaths in that region, of which 11 were caused by mines. 79% of casualties were in separatist areas and 21% in Ukrainian controlled territory. That is a good enough reason to kill thousands and thousand, make millions of Ukrainian children flee their homes? Level entire cities?

Re: Gas Leak in the Baltic Sea

#553

Post by qqqwerty »

jcranmer wrote: post #185
tpmx wrote: post #54

The Swedish national seismic network picked up two explosions within kilometers of the reported gas leak locations yesterday. The time of the first explosion: Yesterday, Monday morning at 02:03 am, second one Monday evening at 7:04pm (local time, CEST). The reports of the gas leaks came at 1:52pm and 8:41pm, respectively - by means of ships reporting bubbling at the surface level. One of the two events registered at…

Assuming the explosions are relevant, some possible causes, ordered somewhat (but not entirely) by my personal estimation of likelihood: * Ecoterrorists -- I discount this mostly on the basis that they would have claimed responsibility by now. * NATO sabotage -- this reduces strategic options for several EU countries (albeit a strategic option that isn't really being exercised and is almost universally disfavored). *…

Just to add to your list for completeness sake:

* China -- Ensures they continue to be the beneficiary of cheap RU gas, which considering their current economic woes, I imagine it is a pretty big deal for them. Broadly, they dislike the Ukraine war because it reduces stability in the region and resulted in deeper western resolve, but strategically a weakened Russia and cheap energy are both beneficial to their interests.

Re: Gas Leak in the Baltic Sea

#555

Post by protomyth »

xtian wrote: post #545
eloff wrote: post #113

Earlier quoted context omitted.

So that doesn't look like an accident. I have difficulty imagining accidental ignition in an underwater gas pipeline. Where would the oxygen come from? Plus it's more than one explosion on the same day - can't be a coincidence. The next question is, who did it? It doesn't seem like something in Russia's interest, they've been wanting to get that pipeline approved and operational. They invested huge sums of money to b…

> The next question is, who did it? A Polish member of the European Parliament has thanked the US: https://twitter.com/radeksikorski/status/1574800653724966915

I somehow think the USA would have done it with a bit less big explosion solution.

Re: Gas Leak in the Baltic Sea

#556

Post by ed_balls »

ed_balls wrote: post #165

This is really interesting. Russia knows (if we didn't do it then must be USA), USA knows (if we didn't do it then must be Russia). Germany would never know, but now they are fully dependent on Poland, Ukraine or US Navy for their energy needs.

Argument for Russia: https://twitter.com/sumlenny/status/1574820287161384960

Re: Gas Leak in the Baltic Sea

#557

Post by dmix »

bulbosaur123 wrote: post #486
dmix wrote: post #403

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The US is close friends with many of the consumers of those gas lines. That makes as little sense as all the other options but even less so.

USA wants to exports its LNG to Europe. It makes a lot of economical sense.

Which branch of the government do you think does economic warfare?

Last I checked only the NSA has done so via hacking in Brazil. But otherwise it's very, very much against US intel-agency policy.

Re: Gas Leak in the Baltic Sea

#558

Post by mrep »

saiya-jin wrote: post #476
aredox wrote: post #381

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It is in Russia's interest: this is their last warning before the North Sea pipelines blow up too.

I'd vote for Russia too, not direct evidence obviously but makes more sense than anybody else. Elites who decide see that EU wants and will cut itself off from Russia anyway, just a question of when and its coming soon. So harsh punishment of this pesky EU right before winter starts to feel the consequences of daring to break away from Russian dependence. Russia made tons of money in past months on oil and gas due to…

> Realistically only US and Russia have the capacity to do 3 attacks like this simultaneously.

I'm no military expert but why? From reading about the pipeline, sections of it are between 80 meters and 110 meters deep which technical scuba divers can reach and the subsea blasts were equivalent to 100kg of dynamite.

Seems to me basically any country could wrangle up a decent sized boat, a few technical divers, 3 100kg bombs, and some time delayed chargers and planted bombs on the pipelines weeks or even months ago.

Re: Gas Leak in the Baltic Sea

#559

Post by xtian »

protomyth wrote: post #555
xtian wrote: post #545

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> The next question is, who did it? A Polish member of the European Parliament has thanked the US: https://twitter.com/radeksikorski/status/1574800653724966915

I somehow think the USA would have done it with a bit less big explosion solution.

Why’s that?

Re: Gas Leak in the Baltic Sea

#560

Post by sorokod »

yznovyak wrote: post #449
eloff wrote: post #113

Earlier quoted context omitted.

So that doesn't look like an accident. I have difficulty imagining accidental ignition in an underwater gas pipeline. Where would the oxygen come from? Plus it's more than one explosion on the same day - can't be a coincidence. The next question is, who did it? It doesn't seem like something in Russia's interest, they've been wanting to get that pipeline approved and operational. They invested huge sums of money to b…

Common theme I've heard here (Kyiv, Ukraine) is that this sabotage is in Putin's direct interest. There are rumours of political infighting among Russia's leaders and that there are several factions trying to seize power, however since there is no clear winner, those guys need powerful allies, EU being a very important one. The idea is that Europe really wants to buy Russian gas, but not from Putin, so if Russia some…

"...he (or she)" couldn't help smiling at the instinctive political correctness.

Reminds of of a story about a person from US visiting South Africa and at some point referring to black people in the audience as African Americans.

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