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Apple Car: Bad Idea After All

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Re: Apple Car: Bad Idea After All

#91
post #80

Earlier quoted context omitted.

>while a well-made electric car can run to a million miles over 50+ years. That's a very different build philosophy. I'm trying to decide if this is something you actually think or is incredibly thick hyperbole. Why would you say a well-made electric car could run that many miles rather than the 200k+ mile cars that actually exist?

Because there are Tesla's that have gone over a million miles.

There's tons of ICE cars that have done it too.

Re: Apple Car: Bad Idea After All

#92
I think people focus too much on the actual car in this speculation. What about the service? Apple is really, really good at finding industries full of bullshit (computers in the 80's, mobile phones in the early 2000's) and saying, "okay, here's a slightly better looking product, with fewer features, and no more bullshit."

The vehicle market is full of bullshit. Tesla took the same tactic and has knocked it down considerably, but there's still the rest of the market.

Re: Apple Car: Bad Idea After All

#93
post #26

So I've always wondered if Apple actually building a 'car' was ever really the goal. It seems like a skunkworks where they try crazy things and then incorporate into Carplay. Future seems to be ever expanding Carplay support. I use it and probably would not buy another car that did not have it integrated. I imagine car manufacturers are somewhat tired of always building HUDs and in vehicle control systems. So gradual…

I dunno, a billion dollars a year (for 8 years) for CarPlay skunkworks seems like a bit much even for Apple..

When you have that much cash on hand, is it really?

Re: Apple Car: Bad Idea After All

#94
post #49

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The biggest reason that cars have horrible UX is that consumers don't care about it. No one is buying one for how good the speedometer looks. Give me a good performance and MPG. Make the components last long and be serviceable. Make it look good on the outside. Put advanced safety features. Perform well in crash tests. A hundred more of these and maybe the car will be worth buying. People here are delusional when the…

> People here are delusional when they go oh, Apple can make a better Carplay integration and easily outsell Ford and Tesla OTOH, why do most people buy a Tesla right now? "How good the speedometer looks" is a pretty good description. Performance is good, reliability awful, UI usability awful unless you like fancy computer graphics. As a car, a Model 3/Y has a lot of compromises and lacks many features other cars hav…

There’s a lot I don’t like about Tesla.

But your list of good/bad didn’t include a single word about the Supercharger network, which is the #1 reason people who want electric vehicles choose Tesla, in my experience.

I agree that the big screen is annoying, but I put up with it so I can go on road trips and not rent a car or limp around searching for charging.

Re: Apple Car: Bad Idea After All

#95

I don't even think about buying cars less than 10 years old or so. I have actually had better luck doing this than when I used to buy cars new or nearly-new. It weeds out the lemons and the owners who don't take care of their cars. Let someone else take the depreciation and find out how they hold up in the long term. Does Apple have any history of supporting its hardware for that long?

I was trying to do this and the market seems terrible. I can buy a 10-12yr old car with 150k miles for >$10k (at least in models that I was looking at). Or stuff that is hard to maintain for $5k (which is what I'm already driving). Newer used cars are almost as much or even more than new! Ended up putting a deposit on a new one.

Re: Apple Car: Bad Idea After All

#96
post #93

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I dunno, a billion dollars a year (for 8 years) for CarPlay skunkworks seems like a bit much even for Apple..

When you have that much cash on hand, is it really?

I mean how much of a return can carplay generate on an initial investment of 8 billion and on-going OPEX even if selling to all the manufacturers (which it isn't).

I think the point is that it was unlikely their intention to be building solely for carplay and an actual car was a bonus. However if they wind down the hardware play of an actual car this could be something that soften those sunk costs.

Re: Apple Car: Bad Idea After All

#97

A full Apple Car has always seemed unrealistic to me. Cars are a fundamentally different industry then consumer electronics and software. Apple would be starting from scratch, and facing a lot of entrenched competition with huge budgets and infrastructure. And for what? What could Apple do that GM, Toyota, or Tesla couldn't? Maybe a better UX for the dashboard. And while many car UXs are absolutely terrible, improvin…

I think it's looking at Tesla's 875 billion dollar market cap and saying "I can do that". Which I think they can. They'll sell a ton of cars on brand alone so long as they don't mess it up.

It's kind of an interesting dichotomy. You can look at Toyota, GM, Tesla, etc. and say why would Apple be interested in those profits. But then you look at Tesla's market cap and then it's obvious why Apple would want some of that.

Ultimately I think the Apple car (and Tesla) is a long term bust. Automotive manufacturing is a well trod industry with, frankly, too many companies as is. I don't see how they could ever generate the sort of profits long term that the market caps imply.

Re: Apple Car: Bad Idea After All

#98
post #55

Earlier quoted context omitted.

That terrifies me

You are not alone. I like the idea that gauges are connected directly to the thing they are measuring. However, I may be disconnected from modern reality in that what might look like a "traditional" gauge might already be connected to the car's computer rather than direct measuring. I'm just not a grease monkey to know the inner workings.

Yeah no gauge in a modern car is directly connected to anything, except maybe the fuel gauge in a cheap car.

Everything is being run the cars ECU, all of those gauges are servo driven, all of them are getting their data in the form of discrete digital values. That’s assuming your car even has physical gauges, and not just digital gauges on a screen.

Re: Apple Car: Bad Idea After All

#99
post #55

Earlier quoted context omitted.

That terrifies me

You are not alone. I like the idea that gauges are connected directly to the thing they are measuring. However, I may be disconnected from modern reality in that what might look like a "traditional" gauge might already be connected to the car's computer rather than direct measuring. I'm just not a grease monkey to know the inner workings.

While my Honda Passport does have a reasonable number of physical buttons--which probably are still fly by wire--I'm pretty sure all the gauge displays are all just digital readouts of readings coming off the bus.

Re: Apple Car: Bad Idea After All

#100
post #17
post #7

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Wouldn’t people have said the same with mp3 players back in the day. Honestly the biggest challenge will be manufacturing. Apple likes to surprise folks, how do you surprise them when you’ve got to build massive new factories

Wouldn't people have said the same thing with cell phones back in the day? In fact I had a discussion with an Apple store employee asking what they thought about the rumor that Apple was going to be releasing a phone. He said that there was no way Apple would even want to be in that space. I'm not saying they will get into cars, but you just never know.

They can make the mp3 players in enough quantity in a single place. You can air freight mp3 players to do JIT delivery.

With cars that’s not possible.

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