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Gas Leak in the Baltic Sea

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Re: Gas Leak in the Baltic Sea

#261

Post by belorn »

petre wrote: post #208
belorn wrote: post #186

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Who has something to loose, something to gain, and the ability to do a covert military operation in Swedish/Danish water. Russia did built it but they weren't gaining anything from having a non-operational pipeline. Just as much gas is being sold now as it was yesterday, and with all the investment and political effort going into the European energy grid right now, it is very unlikely that those pipelines will ever b…

> No country in EU will ever want to become dependent on Russia again after this winter. Hungary and possibly Austria. Hungary even signed a deal with Rosatom to extend their Pecs nuclear powerplant. https://www.politico.eu/article/hungary-approves-constructio...

Nuclear fuel for those plants is generally produced in Russia, through Swedish manufacturer acquired in the previous decade the patents/designs to produces fuel rods that fit those plants.

Sure, it will still be hard to separated Rosatom from those power plants but it not impossible.

Re: Gas Leak in the Baltic Sea

#262

Post by pmontra »

jcranmer wrote: post #258
pmontra wrote: post #254

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> * Ukrainian sabotage -- pretty much the only actor for whom sabotage makes rational sense. Especially if it is a demonstration of Ukrainian cyberwarfare capabilities. How can cyberwarfare blast something some km close to an underwater gas pipe? remote controlled submarine?

Sabotage the control system so that it blows up instead. There are a couple of previous claimed cyberwarfare attacks on pipelines that resulted in pipelines blowing up (e.g., https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/At_the_Abyss , although that's one that I do not believe to be true).

Interesting, thank you.

TL;DR

> "The pipeline software that was to run the pumps, turbines and valves was programmed to go haywire, to reset pump speeds and valve settings to produce pressures far beyond those acceptable to the pipeline joints and welds. The result was the most monumental non-nuclear explosion and fire ever seen from space."

Re: Gas Leak in the Baltic Sea

#263

Post by apexalpha »

kstenerud wrote: post #90

If I were a betting man, I'd put my money on Poland. The Polish prime minister immediately called "sabotage" and fingered Russia, while everyone else is still saying "it could be sabotage but we need to investigate first". Russia wants the taps capable of being turned ON at their discretion, not permanently broken. This hurts their bargaining position in a big way because they've just lost their biggest source of lev…

There's no way Poland pulls this off. If ANY of the government members EVER leak this their position in the EU is done for. It's a direct act of aggression.

This would be an extremely dumb move by Poland.

Re: Gas Leak in the Baltic Sea

#264

Post by henearkr »

411111111111111 wrote: post #209
henearkr wrote: post #199

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The "ecoterrorist" option is just ridiculous, the methane leak is disaster for the climate.

ecoterrorism doesnt mean that its beneficial for the environment. It means that they want to terrorize polluters, regardless of the consequences.

They have no incentive to do actions that damage the environment:

Ecology activist organizations are funded by donations, which would dry up completely at the instant they are proven to be involved in such a disastrous leak.

Re: Gas Leak in the Baltic Sea

#265

Post by golergka »

ajsnigrutin wrote: post #180
golergka wrote: post #150

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Russia wants the taps ON, not off. This hurts their bargaining position in a big way because they've just lost their biggest source of leverage against Germany. No, it's the other way around. It signals that Russia is burning bridges, and makes it nuclear threat seem much more real.

Russia likes bridges, since germany knows that they only need to sit down with the russians and make a deal (eg. no more weapons to ukraine), and the gas starts flowing. Now, even with internal pressures of protesting people in germany, there is no incentive for germans to sit down with the russians, and the only ones profiteering from this are the americans

> Now, even with internal pressures of protesting people in germany, there is no incentive for germans to sit down with the russians

Yes, and that's exactly what Russia wants to signal now: "we're ready to go all in and use strategic nukes against NATO countries, we don't have anything to go back to".

Re: Gas Leak in the Baltic Sea

#266

Post by [deleted] »

kstenerud wrote: post #90

If I were a betting man, I'd put my money on Poland. The Polish prime minister immediately called "sabotage" and fingered Russia, while everyone else is still saying "it could be sabotage but we need to investigate first". Russia wants the taps capable of being turned ON at their discretion, not permanently broken. This hurts their bargaining position in a big way because they've just lost their biggest source of lev…

[deleted]

Re: Gas Leak in the Baltic Sea

#267

Post by _-david-_ »

butthatsit wrote: post #160
FollowingTheDao wrote: post #80

Earlier quoted context omitted.

This is every nation states playbook.

No, it's not. My state never tried to do anything even remotely like what's described as standard practice in the book (and what's provably being done by them here).

Where do you live and how do you know they haven't done anything like this?

Re: Gas Leak in the Baltic Sea

#268

Post by zie »

Kukumber wrote: post #235
zie wrote: post #212

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Sure the US companies would love to sell more LNG, but my understanding is they don't have enough ships to sell them, i.e. they are selling every lb they can already and they just can't get capacity to sell more to the EU, which makes it a much less rational decision to do this.

That's the thing, there is high demand, and they have supply, they also can sell them contracts to build more infrastructure to increase the rate at wich supply is delivered Quickening the cut from gazprom is in their plan, considering: https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/gazprom-says-groups-... We can all pretend and not see what's happening, but then you have this: https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/russia…

> That's the thing, there is high demand, and they have supply, they also can sell them contracts to build more infrastructure to increase the rate at wich supply is delivered

Sure, but it's not like they can build large LNG cargo ships overnight.

Per Wikpedia: "According to SIGTTO data, in 2019 there were 154 LNG carriers on order, and 584 operating LNG carriers" -https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/LNG_carrier

So sounds like they were already backordered ridiculously. Something tells me it has only gotten worse since.

Re: Gas Leak in the Baltic Sea

#269

Post by mlztrpg »

pphysch wrote: post #242
tgv wrote: post #213

Earlier quoted context omitted.

None of these make much sense. It's pretty idle to speculate, and the list is most likely incomplete and inaccurate. It only feeds the trolls. Then again, this whole thread is full of fingerpointing without evidence. If HN can't contain itself, what won't the twitter and facebook, and –may God forget– Truth Social do?

No evidence? What do you think Biden meant when he replied "I promise you, we will be able to do it" [1] when asked about stopping NS2 just before the war this year? Also note the recent pro-NS2 protests in Germany, whose energy costs have skyrocketed before winter. [1] - https://www.cnbc.com/2022/02/07/biden-says-nord-stream-2-won...

No post body was provided.

Re: Gas Leak in the Baltic Sea

#270

Post by FiberBundle »

pphysch wrote: post #195
NeverFade wrote: post #154

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> The next question is, who did it? The Russians. > It doesn't seem like something in Russia's interest, they've been wanting to get that pipeline approved and operational. Once their invasion faltered, and with the recent escalation, they had no hope of that happening. The current Russian regime will never be able to repair relations with the west to the extent that will allow the Nordstream pipelines to resume oper…

The Russians blew up their own brand-new pipeline, which they spend billions creating (jointly with the Germans) and is one of the few major "hopes" to salvage that relationship, especially as winter dawns. That's frankly absurd. Russia almost certainly sabotaged a LNG terminal in Texas a few months ago (industrial cyberattack). This act was almost certainly done by Washington or their proxies. It drives the wedge fu…

It's really not that absurd. The fact that it looks entirely irrational for Russia to do this is exactly why they might have done it. Their intent is to cause division in the West. They could potentially hope for EU countries to blame the US or Ukraine for this. If you read Twitter trends you already see an army of Russian bots pushing the theory that the US has done this.
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