Live data from Hacker News

Gas Leak in the Baltic Sea

forsvaret.dk

251–260 of 1001 posts

Re: Gas Leak in the Baltic Sea

#251

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> That's frankly absurd. The notion that NS2 would enter operation is absurd. NS2 has been dead in the water for months, and the prospect of entering service have been dubious for some time before the Russians invaded Ukraine.

Washington had a very clear policy of never letting NS2 enter production (remember that ominous Biden quip before the war? [1]), which, by the way, is the opposite of absurd: Germany is a major consumer of natural gas and Russia is a major nearby supplier. NS2 is natural in a world without geopolitical drama. "NS2 shouldn't exist" is a narrative manufactured in Washington (and delivered to Germany by Baerbock), that…

> NS2 is natural in a world without geopolitical drama.

As I understand it, most of the gas that would be delivered via NS2 would be the gas that wouldn't be delivered through Belarus/Ukraine (depriving them of transit revenue and providing more options for Russia to employ gas politics on its western flank). It rather seems to me that, far from being natural in a world without geopolitical drama, much of its purpose is actually to enable geopolitical drama.

And, of course, the main thrust of the argumentation against NS2 was that it was causing Germany to pursue an economic dependency on Russia that was unwise, given Russia's already-demonstrated penchant for using that economic dependency as a lever in global affairs. NS2 died when Russia's invasion of Ukraine demonstrated the lack of wisdom in pursuing economic dependency on Russia (compounded by Russia withholding gas flows to make Europe came back begging to Mother Russia).

Re: Gas Leak in the Baltic Sea

#252

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Not at all. EU has been adamant that this was not the good time to go all-coal for example. They could have done just that but no, the whole population and the politics are against (except in a few illiberal "democracies"). Even in the US there is a lot of work done recently to patch the methane leaks in gas fields, for example, which have been spotted as big emitters (by negligence or lack of enforcement).

> in the US there is a lot of work done recently to patch the methane leaks in gas fields This sounds like a business sustainability decision rather than out of concern for the environment.

No, the business side was Trump's side.

"Sustainability" (but not in the planet-preserving / extinction-event-avoiding meaning) of fossil fuel over the next century is not at all a problem, if we wished so.

Re: Gas Leak in the Baltic Sea

#253
post #4

I read talks of sabotage but I struggle to understand the point, surely russia wouldn’t sabotage their own pipelines (they can just shut them) and I understand they are not in use right now. In fact doesn’t that mean that the pipeline will be flooded? Is that recoverable?

Russia doesn't really stand to gain here. Ukraine and the United States stand to gain the most by removing the option for Europe to capitulate to Russia this winter. Ukraine isn't on the Baltic Sea, but do they need to be? Honestly, I don't know the resources that would be required to accomplish this. Would some special forces with diving equipment and a fishing boat be enough?

We have lots of automated machinery/robots/underwater drones that could do it remotely.

Re: Gas Leak in the Baltic Sea

#254
post #54

The Swedish national seismic network picked up two explosions within kilometers of the reported gas leak locations yesterday. The time of the first explosion: Yesterday, Monday morning at 02:03 am, second one Monday evening at 7:04pm (local time, CEST). The reports of the gas leaks came at 1:52pm and 8:41pm, respectively - by means of ships reporting bubbling at the surface level. One of the two events registered at…

Assuming the explosions are relevant, some possible causes, ordered somewhat (but not entirely) by my personal estimation of likelihood: * Ecoterrorists -- I discount this mostly on the basis that they would have claimed responsibility by now. * NATO sabotage -- this reduces strategic options for several EU countries (albeit a strategic option that isn't really being exercised and is almost universally disfavored). *…

> * Ukrainian sabotage -- pretty much the only actor for whom sabotage makes rational sense. Especially if it is a demonstration of Ukrainian cyberwarfare capabilities.

How can cyberwarfare blast something some km close to an underwater gas pipe? remote controlled submarine?

Re: Gas Leak in the Baltic Sea

#255

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Isn't that exactly from their playbook? I mean the neofascist book by Dugin about pseudo-geopolitics that they made required reading at the military universities. "Foundation of Geopolitics" is the name.

This is every nation states playbook.

Have you read it? I have. I doubt many countries are studying how to create a Eurasian super-state to take on the western European and American alliance. What you're thinking is a general-purpose Clausewitz or Sun Tzu is actually a very specific book about building a very specific world view.

Re: Gas Leak in the Baltic Sea

#256
post #123

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Why would the US do that?

Because it cuts a huge temptation for Germans to find some compromise with Russia and allows them to sell LNG for huge profits?

This is as easy to execute as dropping a depth charge from a boat. Examining shipping tracks could shed some light as of who executed this attack.

Re: Gas Leak in the Baltic Sea

#258

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Assuming the explosions are relevant, some possible causes, ordered somewhat (but not entirely) by my personal estimation of likelihood: * Ecoterrorists -- I discount this mostly on the basis that they would have claimed responsibility by now. * NATO sabotage -- this reduces strategic options for several EU countries (albeit a strategic option that isn't really being exercised and is almost universally disfavored). *…

> * Ukrainian sabotage -- pretty much the only actor for whom sabotage makes rational sense. Especially if it is a demonstration of Ukrainian cyberwarfare capabilities. How can cyberwarfare blast something some km close to an underwater gas pipe? remote controlled submarine?

Sabotage the control system so that it blows up instead. There are a couple of previous claimed cyberwarfare attacks on pipelines that resulted in pipelines blowing up (e.g., https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/At_the_Abyss, although that's one that I do not believe to be true).

Re: Gas Leak in the Baltic Sea

#259
post #54

The Swedish national seismic network picked up two explosions within kilometers of the reported gas leak locations yesterday. The time of the first explosion: Yesterday, Monday morning at 02:03 am, second one Monday evening at 7:04pm (local time, CEST). The reports of the gas leaks came at 1:52pm and 8:41pm, respectively - by means of ships reporting bubbling at the surface level. One of the two events registered at…

Assuming the explosions are relevant, some possible causes, ordered somewhat (but not entirely) by my personal estimation of likelihood: * Ecoterrorists -- I discount this mostly on the basis that they would have claimed responsibility by now. * NATO sabotage -- this reduces strategic options for several EU countries (albeit a strategic option that isn't really being exercised and is almost universally disfavored). *…

What about US sabotage? What if peace was about to break out, and this is the United States way of eliminating the option of restoring energy to Europe this winter?

Re: Gas Leak in the Baltic Sea

#260

I don't see a mention that today is the day Poland officially opens up its pipeline to Denmark and Norway. The pipeline Russia (and to a much lesser extent Germany) put a lot of resources trying to jeopardize. Some of the things those two countries did include: Financing of various "grassroots ecology groups" that managed to find an extremely important field mouse (no joke!) habitat on the planned route which caused…

I liked the theory that Russia did it as a warning that they can blow up Poland's pipeline anytime.
Post reply on HN