Hacker News Board Hacker News, browsed like a classic message board
Live data from Hacker News

Gas Leak in the Baltic Sea

forsvaret.dk

Post reply on HN
Print view View original

51–60 of 1001 posts

Re: Gas Leak in the Baltic Sea

#51

Post by usrusr »

cm2187 wrote: post #10
guerrilla wrote: post #8

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The point would depend on who did it. If it was the US, then it was to keep their promise to shut down NS1/2 but after Germany had topped up[1][2]. If it was Russia, then the point is to increase prices by creating volatility through insecurity and to make a threat (they have other pipelines like Yamal that are still running.[3]) If it was some other gas-exporting country (seems unlikely), then likewise, to spike pri…

I would think the US would be more subtle than two simultaneous leaks. That looks like an actor who doesn’t care about being identified.

Or like an actor who likes to be misidentified. There's one player in the global propaganda game who has completely given up convincing anyone of their positions, they've gone all in on the fallback strategy of making noone trust anyone. They wouldn't care if a false flag operation fails to really convince antibody, just casting doubt would already be good enough.

Re: Gas Leak in the Baltic Sea

#52

Post by JumpCrisscross »

daneel_w wrote: post #33
cm2187 wrote: post #4

I read talks of sabotage but I struggle to understand the point, surely russia wouldn’t sabotage their own pipelines (they can just shut them) and I understand they are not in use right now. In fact doesn’t that mean that the pipeline will be flooded? Is that recoverable?

> "...surely russia wouldn’t sabotage their own pipelines (they can just shut them) and I understand they are not in use right now." The EU, through von der Leyen, has more or less made it clear that no more gas will ever be bought from Russia, not even if the war would suddenly end today with Russia retreating entirely from Ukraine's territory. The pipelines have been forfeited. People with geopolitical expertise ha…

> granting them some sort of excuse to mobilize in international waters in the Baltic

Russia already has Kaliningrad.

Re: Gas Leak in the Baltic Sea

#53

Post by butthatsit »

omnibrain wrote: post #25
BitwiseFool wrote: post #9

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The conspiracy theory is that either the United States or some member of NATO sabotaged the pipeline so that Germany will not have the option of easing up on sanctions in order to purchase Russian Gas this winter.

Another conspiracy theory is, that Russia did it, to sow these types of doubt.

Isn't that exactly from their playbook? I mean the neofascist book by Dugin about pseudo-geopolitics that they made required reading at the military universities. "Foundation of Geopolitics" is the name.

Re: Gas Leak in the Baltic Sea

#54

Post by tpmx »

The Swedish national seismic network picked up two explosions within kilometers of the reported gas leak locations yesterday.

The time of the first explosion: Yesterday, Monday morning at 02:03 am, second one Monday evening at 7:04pm (local time, CEST).

The reports of the gas leaks came at 1:52pm and 8:41pm, respectively - by means of ships reporting bubbling at the surface level.

One of the two events registered at magnitude 2.3. They were picked up by stations all over the country.

It's clear from the registered seismic waves that the events are not earthquakes.

- You can clearly see how the waves bounce from the bottom to the surface. There is no doubt that it was a blast or explosion. We even had a station in Kalix [quite far up north, some 1300 km away] that picked this up, says Björn Lund, who is a lecturer in seismology and director of the Swedish national seismic network, which measures Swedish earthquakes and explosions.

Translated and summarized from: https://www.svt.se/nyheter/inrikes/svt-avslojar-tva-explosio... (Sweden's national public service broadcaster, within the last hour)

Re: Gas Leak in the Baltic Sea

#57

Post by mmastrac »

krisoft wrote: post #47
mmastrac wrote: post #19

Earlier quoted context omitted.

That's a very Putin-esque thing to do. They know that Germany is off Russian gas and they want to give them as much pain as possible so they come begging back. The question is whether they trigger article 5 here -- I suspect not, however.

> They know that Germany is off Russian gas and they want to give them as much pain as possible so they come begging back. Okay, but how would this particular act accomplish that? Those pipes are the means Russia would be serving the german market after "they come begging back". If Russia wants to starve Germany of gas they can just simply not pump it in the pipe. That simple. No need to blow up their own infra for t…

Pipes can be repaired. Russia has been slowing down supplies through the NS1 pipe -- down to 1/10th of Germany's normal supply before halting. [1] [2]

Blowing up a pipe that can be repaired to cause friction between allies? That's priceless. The fact that it's cause for speculation on Facebook, Reddit, HN, Twitter, etc shows exactly how disruptive of a move it was.

[1] https://www.spiegel.de/international/business/a-winter-of-pr...

[2] https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/mystery-gas-leaks-hi... "Neither pipeline was pumping gas to Europe at the time the leaks were found..."

Re: Gas Leak in the Baltic Sea

#58

Post by itzprintz »

What a pity what happened to these pipelines for Russian gas. I mean, the west will not be buying Russian gas anytime soon anyway, Putin knows that.

But what if such accident happened to some another pipeline? For example, the one that is being open just this week from Norway to Poland. The one that should help EU survive the winter.

Interested timing of such unfortunate accident..

Re: Gas Leak in the Baltic Sea

#59

Post by krisoft »

ecmascript wrote: post #43
Sebb767 wrote: post #22

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> RUptured Hard to believe, they have nothing to gain from this.

Of course they have, now they have a reason to escalate

Do you think between getting pummeled by all the NATO weapons exported to Ukraine they were missing an excuse?

Re: Gas Leak in the Baltic Sea

#60

Post by bilbo0s »

seydor wrote: post #45

Could it be because the line was underused because of russia lately and the pressure went down? It could be sabotage, but russia can always just turn the tap off. In fact, why would they want to sabotage their instrument of blackmail ?

They wouldn't. That doesn't mean that others wouldn't sabotage the line.

This thing is spiraling out into a mess. With winter coming, things could get nasty in Europe.

Post reply on HN