Pressure leaks hit undersea Nord Stream pipelines • Hacker News Board

Re: Pressure leaks hit undersea Nord Stream pipelines

#31

Post by [deleted] » Tue, Sep 27, 2022, 2:13 PM UTC

mox1 wrote: post #29

timonoko wrote: post #22

Anybody could destroy this pipeline, me myself included. I watched the pipe-laying ship from Finnish "Suuri-Pisi" Island while kayaking. https://youtu.be/0P-wd3qzCBA?t=526 So I know exactly where the pipeline goes. Nothing prevents me from packing some dynamite and Arduino-based timer in water-proof box and do some more kayaking on some dark October night.

I see this type of comment all the time, you are vastly underestimating the skill required to do the thing you hypothesize. Spend 15 minutes walking through the scenario, there is a lot that can go wrong with your simple plan. Of course it is possible, but you would need to find the intersection of 1. Willing / Desire to blow up the pipeline 2. Have the skills to create an underwater bomb of correct properties to blo…

[deleted]

Re: Pressure leaks hit undersea Nord Stream pipelines

#32

Post by bskan » Tue, Sep 27, 2022, 2:15 PM UTC

nradov wrote: post #24

aa-jv wrote: post #18

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I'm curious why you're avoiding the obvious party: the USA did this. Biden even stated he would do it. https://www.reuters.com/world/biden-germanys-scholz-stress-u...

It's impossible to completely rule out some sort of US sponsored covert action, but that seems highly unlikely. The risks outweigh any possible rewards. If the operation went wrong and got exposed the political fallout would be catastrophic. Right now the US is the only country really "winning" the war in Ukraine so there's no need to do anything so crazy.

The US has done terrible things nonstop the past decades and it hasn’t suffered from any kind of political fallout.

Re: Pressure leaks hit undersea Nord Stream pipelines

#33

Post by Isinlor » Tue, Sep 27, 2022, 2:19 PM UTC

omega3 wrote: post #16

Potentially sending gas via this pipeline was one of the last remaining bargain cards for Russia. In case of harsh winter they could use it to pressure European countries (cough Germany cough) into lifting the sanctions. There is no logical reason as to why Russia would have been attacking it's own pipeline.

There is a logical reason for Russia. Making us suspicious of each other.

German citizens will be suspecting USA. Exactly what Putin would want right now.

Re: Pressure leaks hit undersea Nord Stream pipelines

#34

Post by iampivot » Tue, Sep 27, 2022, 2:22 PM UTC

netsharc wrote: post #8

lb1lf wrote: post #3

It is exceedingly unlikely that this is an accident, seeing as no less than three separate pipelines were punctured at different locations within hours of each other. While none of the pipelines were currently operational, this basically ensures that even if some agreement could be reached with Russia to resume gas imports (not very likely!), it will not be possible in the short term, seeing as the operator claims da…

If I could put on my amateur geo-political-analyst hat for a moment, who could be behind this and why? Seems like a Putin move, since he dared using (probably) a sub in other nations' waters. Reason? To show Europe he means business? To show Europe he's not planning to rewind anything to the way things were in 2021?

It could also be Putins way of saying; see what I can do. I can do the same to the pipelines from Norway. There has been a lot of unidentified drone sightings in the Norwegian part of the North Sea in the last week.

Re: Pressure leaks hit undersea Nord Stream pipelines

#35

Post by wil421 » Tue, Sep 27, 2022, 2:22 PM UTC

4gotunameagain wrote: post #26

jusssi wrote: post #17

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It's not out of question that there could be a faction in Russia that would want to undermine the current regime. Edit: Or it could be a play by the current regime against any competing factions.

a faction with a submarine ?

They said it was 60-70 meters deep. You could hit them with an anchor and it happens regularly with different types of cables and pipes. Shouldn’t be too hard to mess one up with a decent size boat.

Re: Pressure leaks hit undersea Nord Stream pipelines

#36

Post by bearmode » Tue, Sep 27, 2022, 2:23 PM UTC

nradov wrote: post #24

aa-jv wrote: post #18

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I'm curious why you're avoiding the obvious party: the USA did this. Biden even stated he would do it. https://www.reuters.com/world/biden-germanys-scholz-stress-u...

It's impossible to completely rule out some sort of US sponsored covert action, but that seems highly unlikely. The risks outweigh any possible rewards. If the operation went wrong and got exposed the political fallout would be catastrophic. Right now the US is the only country really "winning" the war in Ukraine so there's no need to do anything so crazy.

> If the operation went wrong and got exposed the political fallout would be catastrophic.

No worse than the US blatantly overthrowing numerous democratically-elected governments. There was zero fallout for any of that.

Re: Pressure leaks hit undersea Nord Stream pipelines

#37

Post by [deleted] » Tue, Sep 27, 2022, 2:25 PM UTC

aa-jv wrote: post #18

netsharc wrote: post #8

Earlier quoted context omitted.

If I could put on my amateur geo-political-analyst hat for a moment, who could be behind this and why? Seems like a Putin move, since he dared using (probably) a sub in other nations' waters. Reason? To show Europe he means business? To show Europe he's not planning to rewind anything to the way things were in 2021?

I'm curious why you're avoiding the obvious party: the USA did this. Biden even stated he would do it. https://www.reuters.com/world/biden-germanys-scholz-stress-u...

[deleted]

Re: Pressure leaks hit undersea Nord Stream pipelines

#38

Post by mrtksn » Tue, Sep 27, 2022, 2:28 PM UTC

Isinlor wrote: post #33

omega3 wrote: post #16

Potentially sending gas via this pipeline was one of the last remaining bargain cards for Russia. In case of harsh winter they could use it to pressure European countries (cough Germany cough) into lifting the sanctions. There is no logical reason as to why Russia would have been attacking it's own pipeline.

There is a logical reason for Russia. Making us suspicious of each other. German citizens will be suspecting USA. Exactly what Putin would want right now.

Apparently that pipe costs $6B on the shores and $8B on the underwater infrastructure and it is expected bring many billions of dollars of profit to Russia.

That would be one expensive propaganda operation, something like dronning a TSMC Fab in the mids to a chip crisis.

Re: Pressure leaks hit undersea Nord Stream pipelines

#39

Post by timonoko » Tue, Sep 27, 2022, 2:29 PM UTC

mox1 wrote: post #29

timonoko wrote: post #22

Anybody could destroy this pipeline, me myself included. I watched the pipe-laying ship from Finnish "Suuri-Pisi" Island while kayaking. https://youtu.be/0P-wd3qzCBA?t=526 So I know exactly where the pipeline goes. Nothing prevents me from packing some dynamite and Arduino-based timer in water-proof box and do some more kayaking on some dark October night.

I see this type of comment all the time, you are vastly underestimating the skill required to do the thing you hypothesize. Spend 15 minutes walking through the scenario, there is a lot that can go wrong with your simple plan. Of course it is possible, but you would need to find the intersection of 1. Willing / Desire to blow up the pipeline 2. Have the skills to create an underwater bomb of correct properties to blo…

No worries. I already revised my plan. I would 3D-print Raspberry-based submersible, which would find sea bottom and then proceed South-East from Suuri-Pisi and magnetically recognize metallic oblong object. Only problem is the availability of explosive material. But maybe I can buy bombs from immigrant gangs of Stockholm....

Re: Pressure leaks hit undersea Nord Stream pipelines

#40

Post by 4gotunameagain » Tue, Sep 27, 2022, 2:33 PM UTC

wil421 wrote: post #35

4gotunameagain wrote: post #26

Earlier quoted context omitted.

a faction with a submarine ?

They said it was 60-70 meters deep. You could hit them with an anchor and it happens regularly with different types of cables and pipes. Shouldn’t be too hard to mess one up with a decent size boat.

I am not an expert on this topic, far from, but I would expect that a pipeline with a working pressure of 200 bar cannot be damaged by an anchor