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British pound hits record low against the dollar

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41–50 of 379 posts

Re: British pound hits record low against the dollar

#41

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The Euro and Yen and almost all currencies are also down significantly vs the dollar, so I don’t think this is a Brexit thing. This is a strong US dollar thing as the world grapples with collateral shortages and a relative dollar shortage. Edit: I highly recommend the podcast “Eurodollar University” on the subject.

Wow, finally someone that I find on a web forum also willing to utter the words "dollar shortage" during this time. Big props to Jeff and Emil for their generous freely available teachings. I further recommend their paid subscription too. It's well worth it. These times are easy to see coming if you had the right monetary lens on.

Ok, so what happens next then?

Re: British pound hits record low against the dollar

#42
post #37

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The Euro and Yen and almost all currencies are also down significantly vs the dollar, so I don’t think this is a Brexit thing. This is a strong US dollar thing as the world grapples with collateral shortages and a relative dollar shortage. Edit: I highly recommend the podcast “Eurodollar University” on the subject.

In the last 60 days, the GBP has slid from 1.20 EUR to 1.09 EUR, fwiw. It definitely looks like something other than a strong dollar.

EUR sliding against USD as well, right?

Re: British pound hits record low against the dollar

#43
post #32

Earlier quoted context omitted.

There's no real formal definition of crisis, but being fair to him it's not yet a crisis. It is however a sharp devaluation, and appears to be the opposite of what he was predicting.

I don't know how you got that. He's saying that a devaluation won't kill the country because the debt is denominated in Pounds. That seems like a strange clarification. If he's predicting the Pound wouldn't decline - he'd say that. Not say that if it does decline, it won't be a problem... That implies it's a possibility. It just won't cause a crisis if it happens.

He says it most clearly right here:

https://twitter.com/paulkrugman/status/1573656086716071937

"The moron risk premium has now been priced in". That is, he believes the currency depreciation is substantially over.

He is also saying the thing you're reading him as saying too though.

Re: British pound hits record low against the dollar

#44
post #25

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Thanks for the link, it was really interesting. But what is the iron law exactly?

the perception/meme that krugman is always wrong as exactly the wrong time (a similar meme exists for Cramer).

It's Jim Cramer from CNBC (USA media) for those out of the loop.

Re: British pound hits record low against the dollar

#45
post #5

Crazy times it wasn't long ago that a pound bought over $2. The interesting thing this week is that the most fragile and indebted country that the EU has bailed out for 30 years straight (Italy) has elected a govt that doesn't like the EU. Good times ahead.

Greece was more fragile and indebted for sure...

but Italy is far more important (size) to the EU than Greece

Re: British pound hits record low against the dollar

#46
post #41

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Wow, finally someone that I find on a web forum also willing to utter the words "dollar shortage" during this time. Big props to Jeff and Emil for their generous freely available teachings. I further recommend their paid subscription too. It's well worth it. These times are easy to see coming if you had the right monetary lens on.

Ok, so what happens next then?

Continuing a globally rough pace of growth until economists wake up and remake the broken monetary plumbing system.

Re: British pound hits record low against the dollar

#47
post #29
post #5

Crazy times it wasn't long ago that a pound bought over $2. The interesting thing this week is that the most fragile and indebted country that the EU has bailed out for 30 years straight (Italy) has elected a govt that doesn't like the EU. Good times ahead.

Indeed, a great time to vacation in the UK!

just don’t require any medical attention while you’re there, or, like, heat….

Re: British pound hits record low against the dollar

#49
post #2

All government revenues are the result of taxing citizens. Citizens only have money to be taxed if they are employed in productive money-generating enterprises. If the laws and regulations of the nation are such that the citizens can’t make money, then the government has no choice but to cut taxes and regulations until private business can flourish again. Otherwise it’s a never ending strangling of business, lower re…

Not a tax expert here. Singapore has a progressive personal tax system with top personal tax rate of 22% (i have not looked at Dubai). The UK also has a progressive personal tax system, they just cut their top rate of tax from 45% to 40% Corporate tax is 17% in Singapore, and 19% in the UK. Also factor in, Ireland has a corporate tax rate of 12.5% and progressive tax rate up to 40%. This cut seems meaningful from a m…

> The UK has suggested that economic "growth" will solve the problem.

with zero evidence that their tax cuts will have any such consequences.

Re: British pound hits record low against the dollar

#50
post #25

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Thanks for the link, it was really interesting. But what is the iron law exactly?

the perception/meme that krugman is always wrong as exactly the wrong time (a similar meme exists for Cramer).

Got it.

But he is wrong? No one expects an economic argument to call the exact bottom to the date. If the sterling keeps weakening for two weeks more, I'll call him wrong. The other things he said, about the foreign debts and the likelihood of not paying, seem obviously correct to me.

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