Earlier quoted context omitted.
The only justification for this is preventing a self-perpetuating inflationary feedback cycle. Wage increases increase COGS, which increases prices, which leads to demands for wage increases. Once that gets going (encoded in labor contracts and expectations), it's very hard and even more painful to break. Whether that's what we're seeing now... or it's temporary supply side impacts... economists for more data than I…
But labor cost increases is a small part of COGS. So this means this feedback cycle you mention is steeply negative and will stop quite soon.
The Fed plans to sharply boost unemployment
61–70 of 227 posts
Re: The Fed plans to sharply boost unemployment
#62Earlier quoted context omitted.
- Full employment - Low inflation - High wages Pick two.
Wages aren't the only input to inflation. It's not axiomatic that these three cannot be met simultaneously.
Re: The Fed plans to sharply boost unemployment
#63Re: The Fed plans to sharply boost unemployment
#64This is deleterious beyond just economics. Put people out of a job and they go sick, die more frequently and have a general unpleasant time. None of these folks are willing to look at how profits are at record high... take money out of the richest hands and redistribute. The cards are stacked against the common people and asking the non-wealthy to take the brunt of the hit here is a cash grab by the elite who aren't…
This "people are going die" justification has been behind so much catastrophically unwise policy, because there is no argument against it that matches the visceral alarms-blaring rhetoric. It's a blunt weapon and there's not a matching response, since the honest & sincere response is abstract arguments about the fallibility of human judgement & how every decision has costs and benefits, intended and unintended, associated with estimated probabilities.
The problem is that this inflation is so obviously tied to the moral hazard of 2008, bailing out corporations (a result of progressive policy arguing to protect people) and then, the very much similar in spirit, policy enacted during the pandemic. Even 9/11 & the whole apparatus of the 2000s is similar in spirit. All these things were enacted under the pretense of emergency & collectivism. Totalitarian rhetoric and orwellian redefinitions of language were used to silence & stigmatize opposition. Money was printed recklessly in order to finance even more precarious and unsustainable economic dynamics & govt projects.
Guess what? It's all crashing down now. This isn't austerity & libertarianism. Those people have practically no power, only a handful of politicians qualify for that label. We're ruled by big government. The New Deal won over American government, and by any reasonable analysis has reigned supreme ever since and these are the results. Constant crises spilling over into each other, eking out a couple years of relief before the dam gets ready to burst again even more spectacularly.
Re: The Fed plans to sharply boost unemployment
#65This is deleterious beyond just economics. Put people out of a job and they go sick, die more frequently and have a general unpleasant time. None of these folks are willing to look at how profits are at record high... take money out of the richest hands and redistribute. The cards are stacked against the common people and asking the non-wealthy to take the brunt of the hit here is a cash grab by the elite who aren't…
The Fed isn't firing people - they are correctly raising interest rates to keep up with inflation.
There's not much wiggle room for them.
If we all want this problem to go away, we should be focusing on improving our own energy independence and energy transportation quickly and ending the war in Ukraine which is disrupting markets and causing economic havoc in Europe.
Re: The Fed plans to sharply boost unemployment
#66This is true even if the ultimate cause is supply chain issues.
Re: The Fed plans to sharply boost unemployment
#67Earlier quoted context omitted.
Wages are too high, because our entire economy is built on the backs of available race to the bottom international labor. Demographics and the security situation is changing this, and the establishment (for better and worse) is absolutely freaking out. The world as we have lived it the past 30 years cannot exist if people doing labor can command a decent wage by USA standards, we’re going to have to recalibrate for a…
Calling it a "race to the bottom" is a bit ironic, when these jobs have been going to the world's poorest people and those in most need of a job.
I’m not prescribing right or wrong to the situation, just what is
Re: The Fed plans to sharply boost unemployment
#68Wage growth has not been keeping up with inflation, and may even be damping it. The steady chorus of claims that wages are too high strikes me as consent-manufacturing by capital. https://www.epi.org/blog/wage-growth-has-been-dampening-infl... https://insurancenewsnet.com/oarticle/inflation-continues-to...
Wages are too high, because our entire economy is built on the backs of available race to the bottom international labor. Demographics and the security situation is changing this, and the establishment (for better and worse) is absolutely freaking out. The world as we have lived it the past 30 years cannot exist if people doing labor can command a decent wage by USA standards, we’re going to have to recalibrate for a…
Re: The Fed plans to sharply boost unemployment
#69Wage growth has not been keeping up with inflation, and may even be damping it. The steady chorus of claims that wages are too high strikes me as consent-manufacturing by capital. https://www.epi.org/blog/wage-growth-has-been-dampening-infl... https://insurancenewsnet.com/oarticle/inflation-continues-to...
>The steady chorus of claims that wages are too high strikes me as consent-manufacturing by capital. It's the opposite actually. The Fed is raising interest rates to contract the money supply, which will temper inflation. They acknowledge the negative impacts it will have to unemployment and wages, but if you read their press releases, you can tell it's clearly not their intent. Meanwhile, the MSM is spinning it as t…
Re: The Fed plans to sharply boost unemployment
#70The fed funds rate was above 10% on avg between 1979 and 1984. If rates that high for that long were necessary to contain inflation, could we afford that at this point? Wouldn't the rates paid on the federal debt have to go way up as well?
Treasuries have maturities up to 10 years, so some bonds that will mature in 2030 (and new bonds need to be reissues at current rates) were issued at rates from 2020. Thus, a relatively large portion of the federal debt may be isolated from a relatively short (3-5 year) jump in rates.