Is Hans Niemann cheating? – Expert analyzes • Hacker News Board

Re: Is Hans Niemann cheating? – Expert analyzes

#41

Post by SilverBirch » Fri, Sep 23, 2022, 1:40 PM UTC

I honestly wish that people wouldn't put out rubbish analysis like this.

>his conclusion is there is no reason whatsoever to suspect him of cheating.

No. His conclusion is that based on this really weird brute force statistical analysis there is no statistical indicator that he cheated.

Firstly, how you can state there's no reason whatsoever to suspect him of cheating is absurd. You know he has a previous record of cheating so as a starting point that statement is absurd. But secondly and more importantly, no one is suggesting that Neimann is a moron. We're not saying he's a 1200 ELO lucking out against a grand master. Any account of Neimann cheating is going to include the fact that he's already a very good chess player - he's not going to be cheating through his matches with any average player. And as other GMs have pointed out, cheating could literally involve 1 advantageous decision at a key point in a match.

What we have here is very simple. Neimann was quasi-accused of cheating in 1 match, and this genius has gone off and analysed thousands of other matches and come to the conclusion that there's no statistical evidence of cheating. A methodology that is basically designed to ensure almost no one could ever be proven to be cheating using this method.

Re: Is Hans Niemann cheating? – Expert analyzes

#42

Post by Mizza » Fri, Sep 23, 2022, 1:41 PM UTC

buzzdenver wrote: post #15

0cVlTeIATBs wrote: post #9

I've heard of two ways one might cheat in chess. This analysis covers receiving engine moves, but does not address the other accusation, stealing opponents' prep work.

Stealing prep might work in something like a world championship game where the two participants play dozen or more games. It would be much harder to steal the prep of half of your opponents in a round robin tournament. Also, if you assume that Niemann is cheating and his real rating is 2450, not high 2600s like it is officially now, then no amount of prep stealing will make him competitive with Magnus.

But that's literally the situation. He did beat Magnus, claims that he happened to study deep into a fairly esoteric line that Magnus played, then seemed unfamiliar with the variations of it when asked about it in a later interview. Magnus seems to think Neimann's coach - another cheater - got information about Magnus' team's preparation.

Re: Is Hans Niemann cheating? – Expert analyzes

#43

Post by Double_a_92 » Fri, Sep 23, 2022, 1:42 PM UTC

0cVlTeIATBs wrote: post #9

I've heard of two ways one might cheat in chess. This analysis covers receiving engine moves, but does not address the other accusation, stealing opponents' prep work.

There is even a third, which would be pretty much undetectable. The engine only alerts him when he has to specially focus on the next move.

That way he knows when to be careful, but he still needs to figure out what exactly to do on his own.

Re: Is Hans Niemann cheating? – Expert analyzes

#44

Post by diehunde » Fri, Sep 23, 2022, 1:43 PM UTC

xlii wrote: post #13

While I'm not interested in chess in general, I'm deeply curious how Carlsen (assuming good intent) could figure out Niemann was cheating. The ideas I have right now would be: 1. To run each early game phase (up to, let's say 3-5 moves) through multiple AI engines and find selection that is: - happening constantly in most of the engines - don't have deviation in multiple rules (i.e. have stable consequence) - aren't…

I think he just didn't believe he could play that well considering his level

Re: Is Hans Niemann cheating? – Expert analyzes

#45

Post by mmmpop » Fri, Sep 23, 2022, 1:45 PM UTC

dandanua wrote: post #17

Chess became a joke today. People decide if you cheat or not just based on your moves and results. It's nonsense. It's like deciding if an athlete is cheating or not without doping tests - solely based on the "distribution" of success. And Magnus behavior - hinting accusations again and again - is far from ethical too.

I'll give you an upvote purely because I too am curious about your premise and that's definitely going to be a 3rd rail here.

However, I'm not close enough to chess to understand his accusations. When you're the greatest thing in [insert topic] for the past 10 years, you get leeway on those sorts of things.

Re: Is Hans Niemann cheating? – Expert analyzes

#46

Post by kumarvvr » Fri, Sep 23, 2022, 1:46 PM UTC

SilverBirch wrote: post #41

I honestly wish that people wouldn't put out rubbish analysis like this. >his conclusion is there is no reason whatsoever to suspect him of cheating. No. His conclusion is that based on this really weird brute force statistical analysis there is no statistical indicator that he cheated. Firstly, how you can state there's no reason whatsoever to suspect him of cheating is absurd. You know he has a previous record of c…

Awesome take. Reminds me of a book that teaches us how one can lie with statistics.

While reading the whole article, I was convinced over the "data centric analysis". Afterall, how can data lie?

But, its revealing that cheating in a chess game with a GM is literally making the right guided move at the right time.

Re: Is Hans Niemann cheating? – Expert analyzes

#47

Post by binarymax » Fri, Sep 23, 2022, 1:47 PM UTC

If you play at a grandmaster level, then sometimes you only need to cheat on one or two critical moves in the game. The rest you can handle yourself. A smart and talented cheater wouldn't use stockfish for 10 to 20 moves in a 90 move game, you only use the game changing move or two. This is likely impossible to catch and prove.

Re: Is Hans Niemann cheating? – Expert analyzes

#48

Post by Aromasin » Fri, Sep 23, 2022, 1:47 PM UTC

SilverBirch wrote: post #41

I honestly wish that people wouldn't put out rubbish analysis like this. >his conclusion is there is no reason whatsoever to suspect him of cheating. No. His conclusion is that based on this really weird brute force statistical analysis there is no statistical indicator that he cheated. Firstly, how you can state there's no reason whatsoever to suspect him of cheating is absurd. You know he has a previous record of c…

What's ever worse is that FIDE feel justified exonerating people based on this statistical analysis alone, despite the fact there seems to be a general sense within the GM community that something is wrong and has been for a while.

Re: Is Hans Niemann cheating? – Expert analyzes

#49

Post by jjulius » Fri, Sep 23, 2022, 1:48 PM UTC

frodetb wrote: post #21

I wonder if the explanation for Carlsen's move could be far simpler than people are making it out to be. This is the guy who decided not to compete for the world title, simply because he didn't feel like it. He loves chess, and wants to keep playing it for the joy that it gives him, and nothing else. He could have resigned early simply because going through with the game would have left a bad taste in his mouth. I'll…

>Imagine having to sit through a game that you love to play, only with a nagging thought in the back of your mind that sucks the joy out of the experience and turns it into a chore.

That's a completely reasonable position for Magnus to take. It would be even more reasonable for him to simply state that that's why he's acted as such, and yet...

Re: Is Hans Niemann cheating? – Expert analyzes

#50

Post by parksoha » Fri, Sep 23, 2022, 1:48 PM UTC

bpodgursky wrote: post #5

hugh-avherald wrote: post #4

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I believe Fabi, but the question must be asked: how does he know (with certainty!) that the player was cheating. Did the player confess? Was he blatantly looking on his phone in front of him?

Making moves perceived to be outside his skill class I assume.

Move in a critical moment, speed of decision for said move, cheating at this level is probably extremely hard to do it alone which already creates space for leaks...