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Modernity is incompatible with planetary limits: a PLAN for the future

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Re: Modernity is incompatible with planetary limits: a PLAN for the future

#141
post #46

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Limits which are millions, billions, or trillions of times beyond current capacities. For the moment, thermodynamic limits don't apply.

Exponentials can get away from you a lot faster than you might expect. For instance if we sustained a 1% annual population growth for another 13000 years the total volume of all living people would be more than the total volume of all the space within 13000 light years of Earth. So unless we get faster than light travel or we greatly reduce the amount of space into which you can physically cram a living human we are…

Uploading should allow us to vastly reduce the amount of space in which you can run a human mind.

Re: Modernity is incompatible with planetary limits: a PLAN for the future

#142
post #97

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Would law of physics kick in ? If it takes thousands of years to produce oil/gas/coal, and months to extract and consume it... then what political solution do have ? My concern is that we might hit an energy crisis (Russia/Ukraine is just the tip of the iceberg). We need oil/gas/coal for everything around us (clothes, transportation, heat, cement, iron, energy). For energy we could use nuclear for baseline, and some…

and as far as I read nuclear fuel isn't endless either...

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Re: Modernity is incompatible with planetary limits: a PLAN for the future

#143
post #14

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Retirement for the masses is a relatively new, rich invention. It seems likely ar some point we will revert back to working until we become unable to work.

Yeh the whole concept of putting in 20-30 years on the police force and then retiring with a 70% pension for the rest of your life seems… nuts.

I think most places are lower than 70%. The military is similar with 50% base pay, although their pay is generally much lower, especially since police can work overtime.

Re: Modernity is incompatible with planetary limits: a PLAN for the future

#144
post #50

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> This paper states this as though it is desirable and inevitable. No it doesn't? Two sentences later: > But modernity has been enabled by the rapid and accelerating expenditure of our one-time inheritance of fossil fuels, and by drawing down the resources and ecosystems of our finite Earth—none of which can be sustained as we transition from a resource-rich frontier to a human-dominated planet.

I still don't fathom this singular deposit of fossil fuels in the earth, are they truly some artifact of a huge die off of living creatures from centuries ago or is there some steady generation through time that replenishes and generates the crude oil beneath our feet? I'd like to learn more about where the fossil in fossil fuels comes from and just what sort of biomass quantity we're talking about and when on earth…

There is a steady generation of fossil fuels. It is many orders of magnitude slower than consumption, so basically modeling it as a fixed quantity is accurate.

Re: Modernity is incompatible with planetary limits: a PLAN for the future

#145
post #36

I do think some of the concerns here are right on the nose > What can be done to minimize the chances of colossal failure or sub-systemic breakdown, which in the worst case could threaten preservation of science and human knowledge? It seems like the two extremes are degrowth and malthus on the one hand, and haughty denialist expansionism on the other. One is borderline eugenicist and denies billions of people of our…

In my opinion the issue with the balance here is that no matter where you fall on the "climate scale belief" (except probably the most extreme of deniers), people consider anyone that thinks a better future than you is coming will be labelled a denier, while anyone who thinks a worse future than you think is coming is given a soft pass as just having stronger convictions. That unfortunately leaves the vast majority o…

The problem is that _any_ action is criticized as sacrificing prosperity, even though it often just sacrifices the prosperity of a small number of people.

Re: Modernity is incompatible with planetary limits: a PLAN for the future

#146
post #24

Earlier quoted context omitted.

constant growth != infinite growth constant growth just means converging growth if the population is shrinking all we need to do is increase gdp per capita.

> constant growth != infinite growth constant growth just means converging growth if the population is shrinking all we need to do is increase gdp per capita. In theory. In practice GDP growth is strongly correlated with things like energy use and waste/pollution generation. There will come a point when either that correlation has to be broken or growth has to halt.

The USA is the exact opposite example of this. US carbon emissions have fallen 15% since 2005 but the massive US economy continues to grow. There’s no requirement that more growth always == more pollution.

Re: Modernity is incompatible with planetary limits: a PLAN for the future

#147
post #124

Earlier quoted context omitted.

it's not encoded in law, but we do have a society where who can have many children is determined by economic factors that are not fully under ones control.

lack of economic ability is not the same as someone forcing you not to have children. And you can still have children even when facing economic hardship - lots of people have done it (think immigrant families who start out poor). I would also claim that a lot of western nations subsidize families already, so economic factors is not considered eugenics imho.

How would you feel about a free test for $genetic_marker coupled with taxes for parents that have children with $genetic_marker? Surely that would count as "forced"?

Re: Modernity is incompatible with planetary limits: a PLAN for the future

#148

Earlier quoted context omitted.

What do we mean with de-growth here? Human world population? Energy-consumption per human? long-lasting-non-recyclable-waste per human? Mankind GDP? Wealth distribution discrepancy? On collapse, the only serious book I red was Jared Diamond's "Collapse: How Societies Choose to Fail or Succeed".

I mean mostly GDP (yes economists, I am looking at you), but, alas, all these dimensions are linked. I guess that decoupling is possible to some extent. I don't want to lose the hope that we can live happy lives without destroying the planet (or ourselves), but we need a very bold strategy, and I haven't seen any yet.

GDP is not something that happens in an economist's office.

Re: Modernity is incompatible with planetary limits: a PLAN for the future

#149
post #60

This kind of Malthusian thinking has a horrible track record. Imagine if we drastically altered the course of technological progress every time a cabal of "experts" declares that we're going to destroy the planet. I'm not arguing that we should be reckless with the environment, but there are massive existential risks to humanity with this kind of self-limiting belief system. It's not obvious that one side of the argu…

This whole paper is lazy, panic-ridden grift. Why lazy? Because it's core thesis is that fossil fuels are a natural constraint... The word "nuclear" does not appear a single time in the entire paper! We have more than enough carbon, oxygen, hydrogen, and nitrogen on this earth to do incredible things given an energy source. It's time to stop dooming and start exploring. Also, fuck Mars. Why not try to make the desert…

> Also, fuck Mars. Why not try to make the desert liveable?

Because it's too easy to get to the desert

Re: Modernity is incompatible with planetary limits: a PLAN for the future

#150
post #135

To my knowledge, it literally never happened that humanity ran out of a ressource and it turned out not to be replaceable.

As they say, past performance is not a guarantee of future results

Obviously, but I'll need a bit more than a 50 years old computer simulation of a few coupled PDEs before I give back my job and go live the peasant life.
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