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Modernity is incompatible with planetary limits: a PLAN for the future

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Re: Modernity is incompatible with planetary limits: a PLAN for the future

#71

Post by pdonis »

gnramires wrote: post #32
jessenichols wrote: post #22

There are no resource limits, only limits to the creativity of people to create explanations that allow us to transform raw materials from one state to another. See The Beginning of Infinity by Deutsch and More From Less by McAfee.

This is false. There are resource limits, unfortunately (I guess?). Thermodynamics is a hard limit. There are many soft limits as well. Please look at this paper for an incredibly well researched physics-based review: (to appear in Nature Physics) https://tmurphy.physics.ucsd.edu/papers/limits-econ-final.pd...

Of course if you assume continued exponential growth you will run into limits. The correct response to that is to not assume continued exponential growth indefinitely, since in the real world that never happens.

In actual real world systems, the growth curve is sigmoidal: it starts out with exponential growth, becomes linear, then asymptotically flattens as system constraints are approached. This is already happening with human population, and should be expected to start happening with other resource curves in the fairly near term. Any properly grounded analysis would look at the situation from this point of view.

Re: Modernity is incompatible with planetary limits: a PLAN for the future

#72

Post by 6510 »

ericmcer wrote: post #67
DiggyJohnson wrote: post #51

Earlier quoted context omitted.

This is one of the wildest things I’ve read on the internet… this year? Why does a lack of creative design mean human experience is meaningless?

Haha thanks Well a lack of a creator means we invent our own purpose I suppose, and garner whatever ethereal meaning from that we can. That just feels hollow to me. The idea that we are just biological machines serving the unfathomable aims of some sky daddy is unsettling but suits me better than our purpose being a bunch of lame platitudes about being kind or whatever.

but then sky daddy is the biological machine inventing his own purpose.

Re: Modernity is incompatible with planetary limits: a PLAN for the future

#73

Post by OrvalWintermute »

gnramires wrote: post #62
adastra22 wrote: post #35

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Limits which are millions, billions, or trillions of times beyond current capacities. For the moment, thermodynamic limits don't apply.

Per the article, actually about 100-1000 times beyond current capacities. In a way I agree that the feasible limits, even on Earth, may be orders of magnitude larger (say, in terms of population, perhaps) than we currently have. But the current rate of growth in any case is probably unsustainable because of imbalances like co2 emissions. I do think it's feasible to change to renewable energy in the short term, if onl…

> co2 emissions

The ironic thing is that some of the earth's most fertile periods were associated with high levels of co2.

Because co2 reduces plant need for water, reduces desertification, and massively increases the food supply.

Given that solar power beaming is technologically feasible and practical, it is likely that the future will not be power limited like we are today.

Re: Modernity is incompatible with planetary limits: a PLAN for the future

#74

Post by diputsmonro »

ch4s3 wrote: post #45
junon wrote: post #30

Earlier quoted context omitted.

This is sort of a selfish viewpoint to take, is it not? I mean I don't necessarily disagree with you, just... the reasoning seems strange to me.

It’s ultimately a humanist set of values that lead to that conclusion. If we value human happiness we should try to make as much of that as possible.

Sure, but more lives doesn't mean a net increase in happiness. A trillion people who live in the edge of starvation are probably less happy overall than a few billion who are well fed.

I mean, what's the point if being a humanist of you don't care about the human?

Re: Modernity is incompatible with planetary limits: a PLAN for the future

#75

Post by Dylan16807 »

adastra22 wrote: post #69
gnramires wrote: post #62

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Per the article, actually about 100-1000 times beyond current capacities. In a way I agree that the feasible limits, even on Earth, may be orders of magnitude larger (say, in terms of population, perhaps) than we currently have. But the current rate of growth in any case is probably unsustainable because of imbalances like co2 emissions. I do think it's feasible to change to renewable energy in the short term, if onl…

Diamond-based molecular nanotechnology, combined with fusion and high efficiency solar as sources of power will make all of our technology and infrastructure carbon sinks. By the end of this century I expect we will be concerned about CO2 going too low and causing a glacial period. PS Mercury is too far in-system to be that useful. It takes less energy to get to/from the outer planets than it does Mercury. The cold t…

We can just turn off the carbon sinks in that case, there's plenty of carbon around to grab off the ground. And release some methane if needed.

Re: Modernity is incompatible with planetary limits: a PLAN for the future

#76

Post by skissane »

fardo wrote: post #55
ericmcer wrote: post #49

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Do you think we will ever turn back to eugenics? It has deeply immoral roots and has led to some of the most messed up scenarios in our history, but it is also a crazy powerful tool we have been unable to leverage in a non-evil way. (This is kinda tangential but related) I have a weird theory about humanities purpose: Assuming someone/thing created life (if life wasn't created then it truly is random chaos and we hav…

>Do you think we will ever turn back to eugenics? As the word is currently used, no, but mostly because it’s seemingly used to represent, in the public consciousness > intentional genetic control we dislike When we do things such as “screening for down syndrome” [1], we are already actively engaged in a eugenics project, but we don’t think of it as one because it’s the kind of intentional genetic control we like. I e…

> When we do things such as “screening for down syndrome” [1], we are already actively engaged in a eugenics project, but we don’t think of it as one because it’s the kind of intentional genetic control we like.

Historically, many cases of "eugenics" involved a lack of informed consent, even blatant coercion. That screening is entirely voluntary–you have the right to say "no", and I know couples who have (due to moral objections grounded in their religious beliefs). That's a very big difference.

Re: Modernity is incompatible with planetary limits: a PLAN for the future

#77

Post by int_19h »

aeternum wrote: post #21
ouid wrote: post #3

>infinite exponential growth which is impossible on a finite planet. its impossible in any space with non negative curvature. the kind of growth that is unsustainable in a finite region is any growth at all.

Also if we really value life, we should probably optimize for total lives lived. The universe will not last forever and entire galaxies are being lost to both the cosmic horizon and blackholes at an alarming rate. For some reason Earth seems to be the only planet with life, so every second we spend without making life interplanetary we are snuffing out an unfathomable number of future human and animal lives.

You can't "snuff out" something that doesn't exist yet.

That aside, if that were indeed our goal, then we should be forcing people to breed as much as possible, even if it causes short-term quality of life decrease - since population growth is exponential, every human not born today that could be born means billions less in that hypothetical future.

Re: Modernity is incompatible with planetary limits: a PLAN for the future

#78

Post by giraffe_lady »

aeternum wrote: post #21
ouid wrote: post #3

>infinite exponential growth which is impossible on a finite planet. its impossible in any space with non negative curvature. the kind of growth that is unsustainable in a finite region is any growth at all.

Also if we really value life, we should probably optimize for total lives lived. The universe will not last forever and entire galaxies are being lost to both the cosmic horizon and blackholes at an alarming rate. For some reason Earth seems to be the only planet with life, so every second we spend without making life interplanetary we are snuffing out an unfathomable number of future human and animal lives.

Something about this reminds me of the authority anti-abortion activists bestow upon themselves.

It's easy to speak for the unborn because they cannot speak for themselves and will not contradict you.

Surprising though, how neatly the interests of the far future unborn align with those of the wealthy and powerful today. Ah well, just a coincidence I'm sure.

Re: Modernity is incompatible with planetary limits: a PLAN for the future

#79

Post by sidewndr46 »

adastra22 wrote: post #69
gnramires wrote: post #62

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Per the article, actually about 100-1000 times beyond current capacities. In a way I agree that the feasible limits, even on Earth, may be orders of magnitude larger (say, in terms of population, perhaps) than we currently have. But the current rate of growth in any case is probably unsustainable because of imbalances like co2 emissions. I do think it's feasible to change to renewable energy in the short term, if onl…

Diamond-based molecular nanotechnology, combined with fusion and high efficiency solar as sources of power will make all of our technology and infrastructure carbon sinks. By the end of this century I expect we will be concerned about CO2 going too low and causing a glacial period. PS Mercury is too far in-system to be that useful. It takes less energy to get to/from the outer planets than it does Mercury. The cold t…

You have suggested in the same comment that somehow we will have nearly limitless carbon-negative energy but also that the amount of energy to get to Mercury is too high to make the trip worth it. This does not follow from the initial assumption.

Re: Modernity is incompatible with planetary limits: a PLAN for the future

#80

Post by ch4s3 »

diputsmonro wrote: post #74
ch4s3 wrote: post #45

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It’s ultimately a humanist set of values that lead to that conclusion. If we value human happiness we should try to make as much of that as possible.

Sure, but more lives doesn't mean a net increase in happiness. A trillion people who live in the edge of starvation are probably less happy overall than a few billion who are well fed. I mean, what's the point if being a humanist of you don't care about the human?

There's a whole philosophical discourse about this very topic[1] and I'm not well read enough on the topic to adequately hash out the "repugnant conclusion".

[1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mere_addition_paradox

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