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President Putin has announced a partial mobilization in Russia

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Re: President Putin has announced a partial mobilization in Russia

#251

Post by spywaregorilla »

tim333 wrote: post #247
spywaregorilla wrote: post #154

A few months ago analysts were warning of impending collapse of Russia's troops due to poor supplies and poor morale. Russian cheerleaders on HN were doubting it as Western propaganda saying it had been declared for months and not materialized. Well it materialized in the collapse of the Kharkiv front over a week so there's that. In all, I don't think the mobilization is likely to matter. The Russian problem is bad s…

Using nukes would be unlikely to go well for Russia. The Ukrainian troops are pretty spread out so setting off a nuke would only take out a few and in response the west would probably do bad stuff to Russia, quite likely US non nuclear air strikes which could wipe out much of the Russian forces.

Probably. But they're still enough to dramatically change the state of the war. I think it's a losing gamble as well and it will not be done.

Re: President Putin has announced a partial mobilization in Russia

#252

Post by misiti3780 »

vincnetas wrote: post #131
88840-8855 wrote: post #70

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Oh yeah, super good idea. We had fantastic experience with humiliated nations before. It worked so well for Germany after WW1 /s FACT: the end of this war must be positive for the Russian people, no matter whether Russia loses or wins the military operation. Putin came to power because the West didnt help the former Soviet republics. If Russia is left alone humiliated again then we will have the next anti-western sys…

So you say that WWII did not humiliate Germany? Can we do same to Russia then? What is your proposal to how not humiliate Russia? Russia already humiliated themselves by not wining this conflict for so long. In their book anything less than total conquest of Ukraine is humiliation.

They said WWI. I assume they were referring to the Versaille Treaty

Re: President Putin has announced a partial mobilization in Russia

#253

Post by tim333 »

spaceman_2020 wrote: post #94
willsmith72 wrote: post #64

This is really going to screw Russia for generations. Every young Russian I know has either already left, plans to leave, or has to stay but hates their leader. You don't get your country to turn into a superpower by losing the most educated and skilled of the young generations. I only hope as things get more desperate he doesn't feel trapped lash out with the nukes.

Russia was already always going to lose that "superpower" tag the moment the world shifted from hard industrial goods to consumer goods and technology. The first computer, the growth of the Japanese consumer goods industry, and Silicon Valley likely did as much to collapse the Soviet Union as anything else - they were simply out of the picture the moment we started creating software and portable stereos and personal…

Russia could have done well with good leadership. It's a shame they are stuck with the current scheming poisoner.

Re: President Putin has announced a partial mobilization in Russia

#254

Post by lolc »

The_Colonel wrote: post #239
lolc wrote: post #223

Earlier quoted context omitted.

International trade keeps going. Just because some economies have curbed trading with Russia does not mean they've run out of trading partners. It is doubtful the sanctions would remain in place for long after a capitulation of Ukraine. Losing troops and military equipment is insignificant in the long term. Both have to be replaced regularly anyway. That is no loss unless one counts the pollution and the humanitarian…

> It is doubtful the sanctions would remain in place for long after a capitulation of Ukraine. I doubt that. The sanctions from 2014 have remained in place even during the "quiet" years.

Maybe that was because those sanctions didn't hurt much?

Re: President Putin has announced a partial mobilization in Russia

#255

Post by WastingMyTime89 »

sofixa wrote: post #179
WastingMyTime89 wrote: post #151

Earlier quoted context omitted.

What I mean is that we need to use diplomacy to allow Russia a way to enter negotiations and stop the war while keeping a modicum of face. There is absolutely no chance Russia just leaves Ukraine on their own while saying "we have lost, we were bad and will now behave as you wish" so there would be little point insisting on that. If what we want is a come back to pre-invasion frontiers we need to give them a way to s…

Russia has plenty of nukes for the US and Europe if Putin decides the murder-suicide path is the only way forward. The problem with your line of thinking is that Russia needs to lose. It's citizens need to understand that it has lost. Germany after WWI didn't and it gave rise to the stab in the back myth and nationalism. If Russia is allowed to spin anything as a victory here, it and it's citizens would learn nothing…

What is that supposed to achieve exactly?

The reverse of what you are writing actually happened at the end of WW1 by the way. Germany definitely understood they lost. They were humiliated, were dragged to Versailles to sign an armistice treaty and had to pay an insane reparation amount. That’s what gave rise to nationalism.

Russia army has been mostly destroyed. Its economy is faltering. Its ability to wage war is greatly reduced. Its standing on the international scene forever diminished.

There is no point in dragging them in the mud further than strictly necessary. Why back them in a corner to the point they are tempted to do the unthinkable?

Re: President Putin has announced a partial mobilization in Russia

#256

Post by tim333 »

TheWoodsy wrote: post #12

Their main propaganda news channel has already said (incorrectly) that they are already fighting NATO and US troops in the breakaway areas. Is it time to make this a reality? I really don't see it ending without it happening. russia has shown that it has no regard for the suffering of any troops of any nationality. So purely from a population perspective, Ukraine will fail eventually unless they can effectively force…

>purely from a population perspective, Ukraine will fail

Ukraine has a long waiting list of people wanting to fight, Russia has been having to recruit in prisons as there is a shortage or Russians wanting to go be cannon fodder. This mobilization is supposed to help that but even so I'm not sure Russia has much of a manpower advantage. Also with modern weaponry sending out crap unmotivated troops doesn't work that well - one of the first groups of prisoners sent out just surrendered to Ukraine en mass.

Re: President Putin has announced a partial mobilization in Russia

#257

Post by eternalban »

dzhiurgis wrote: post #182
88840-8855 wrote: post #70

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Oh yeah, super good idea. We had fantastic experience with humiliated nations before. It worked so well for Germany after WW1 /s FACT: the end of this war must be positive for the Russian people, no matter whether Russia loses or wins the military operation. Putin came to power because the West didnt help the former Soviet republics. If Russia is left alone humiliated again then we will have the next anti-western sys…

People deserve the government they have.

Are you referring to the new overt dart vader look in the city of brotherly love? Bring out the capes!

(but this an international phenomena, so yeah, agreed.)

Re: President Putin has announced a partial mobilization in Russia

#258

Post by WastingMyTime89 »

TillE wrote: post #187
WastingMyTime89 wrote: post #151

Earlier quoted context omitted.

What I mean is that we need to use diplomacy to allow Russia a way to enter negotiations and stop the war while keeping a modicum of face. There is absolutely no chance Russia just leaves Ukraine on their own while saying "we have lost, we were bad and will now behave as you wish" so there would be little point insisting on that. If what we want is a come back to pre-invasion frontiers we need to give them a way to s…

You're still not really saying what you mean in practical terms, but I assume that means ceding parts of Ukraine in a peace deal. This will never happen. The alternative isn't escalation, it's what we've seen to date: a long, grinding war.

It doesn’t necessarily mean ceding parts of Ukraine, no.

There are plenty of things to be negotiated here: the lifting of economic sanctions, what happen to Crimea and the Black Sea port, how far will Ukraine integration into the EU go and how fast.

I don’t understand what the USA is aiming for in Ukraine. The American media have generally been far more bellicist than they usually are for foreign regional conflicts since even before the invasion. There is something at play which I don’t entirely grasp.

Re: President Putin has announced a partial mobilization in Russia

#259

Post by origin_path »

mrtksn wrote: post #216
dvfjsdhgfv wrote: post #213

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> It's bizarre and I don't see anything special about Russia TBH. It's just that they seem to be ahead of the west in the direction the world is headed. On the contrary, they seem to be a century behind. Even China told them they should try to find a diplomatic solution. India told them this is not the time for war. The world has other problems than an old man's ambitions.

Apparently not, lives have been shattered because old mens ambitions since ever. Europeans and British can no longer live and work in their respective countries because of old mens ambitions. Because of old mens ambitions large number of Americans no longer believe in democratic elections. Because of old mens ambitions countless people have died in the middle east and other places. What Russia is ahead of is that the…

"Europeans and British can no longer live and work in their respective countries because of old mens ambitions"

This is nonsense. There are millions of people from different European countries working in the UK, including new arrivals post-Brexit. Around half of women voted to leave the EU. One of the senior politicians who supported Vote Leave is a middle aged British Indian woman.

https://www.statista.com/statistics/567922/brexit-votes-by-g...

Re: President Putin has announced a partial mobilization in Russia

#260

Post by tim333 »

scanny wrote: post #5

It’s hard to see where this ends; should things move toward weakening of the Russian government will he go without attempting to escalate his way out of domestic danger? I think mobilisation and moving toward declaring the special operation a war (more mobilisation) could be the beginnings of that slippery slope.

Dunno but its a bit reminicent of 1916 which led to overthrow of the Russian government https://mobile.twitter.com/kamilkazani/status/15722891550481...
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