Rapid Green Energy Transition Will Likely Result in Trillions of Net Savings • Hacker News Board

Re: Rapid Green Energy Transition Will Likely Result in Trillions of Net Savings

#21

Post by TigeriusKirk » Sat, Sep 17, 2022, 6:36 PM UTC

addicted wrote: post #14

TigeriusKirk wrote: post #9

Earlier quoted context omitted.

OK. But what about the idea that renewable energy costs have no floor?

That’s not the claim in the article. From the article: > For example, as shown in Figure 3B, past floor costs used in IAMs have already repeatedly been violated. We know of no empirical evidence supporting floor costs and do not impose them (see Document S1 section “The use of floor costs in endogenous technological learning models”). So there is no claim that there will not be a floor. Just that the floor costs have…

I'm not seeing this as a distinction that makes any difference in the criticism.

Re: Rapid Green Energy Transition Will Likely Result in Trillions of Net Savings

#22

Post by puchatek » Sat, Sep 17, 2022, 6:36 PM UTC

qclibre22 wrote: post #11

Interesting who funded this study: Institute for New Economic Thinking was founded with an initial pledge of $50 million from businessman and philanthropist George Soros . I'm sure researchers try extra hard to not be influenced by the funders and pursue real science. Let's hope they did in this case.

I'm aware of how Soros is the Boogeyman for some people but I'm curious as to what exactly you are insinuating? What's the narrative?

Re: Rapid Green Energy Transition Will Likely Result in Trillions of Net Savings

#23

Post by addicted » Sat, Sep 17, 2022, 6:38 PM UTC

addicted wrote: post #14

TigeriusKirk wrote: post #9

Earlier quoted context omitted.

OK. But what about the idea that renewable energy costs have no floor?

That’s not the claim in the article. From the article: > For example, as shown in Figure 3B, past floor costs used in IAMs have already repeatedly been violated. We know of no empirical evidence supporting floor costs and do not impose them (see Document S1 section “The use of floor costs in endogenous technological learning models”). So there is no claim that there will not be a floor. Just that the floor costs have…

So you think it’s better to include a factor that is unknowable and whose inclusion has consistently led to wrong analysis when the exclusion of that factor would have historically led to better results?

Re: Rapid Green Energy Transition Will Likely Result in Trillions of Net Savings

#24

Post by stormbrew » Sat, Sep 17, 2022, 6:39 PM UTC

sheepdestroyer wrote: post #18

seventytwo wrote: post #8

Earlier quoted context omitted.

You know, collectively, we can do something about that… It’s a political decision in society to allow that added value to be sucked up by those who are already wealthy.

Isn't it too late for that now that the power imbalance afforded to Capital owners is so disproportionate? I think that's what transpired from Piketty's "Capital in the Twenty-First Century"

History is long, and capitalism as we know it is only a couple centuries old (and that's being generous). It's easy to forget that there was a before because it's very common to frame even old economic systems in modern terms, but things changing is the only real constant. There'll be an after too.

Re: Rapid Green Energy Transition Will Likely Result in Trillions of Net Savings

#25

Post by TigeriusKirk » Sat, Sep 17, 2022, 6:39 PM UTC

addicted wrote: post #23

addicted wrote: post #14

Earlier quoted context omitted.

That’s not the claim in the article. From the article: > For example, as shown in Figure 3B, past floor costs used in IAMs have already repeatedly been violated. We know of no empirical evidence supporting floor costs and do not impose them (see Document S1 section “The use of floor costs in endogenous technological learning models”). So there is no claim that there will not be a floor. Just that the floor costs have…

So you think it’s better to include a factor that is unknowable and whose inclusion has consistently led to wrong analysis when the exclusion of that factor would have historically led to better results?

I think it's better to make an estimate than to assume the decrease will continue indefinitely, yes. I do think that.

Re: Rapid Green Energy Transition Will Likely Result in Trillions of Net Savings

#26

Post by bryanlarsen » Sat, Sep 17, 2022, 6:41 PM UTC

vondur wrote: post #20

Can we really build batteries at the scale needed for this? I’m a bit skeptical.

Why? The materials needed for LiFePO4 batteries are very common, and we only need a few dozen large factories and refineries.

Compared to the size of the fossil fuel extraction industry, it's tiny.

The only question is how quickly we can build up to the scale needed, not if we can.

Re: Rapid Green Energy Transition Will Likely Result in Trillions of Net Savings

#27

Post by burkaman » Sat, Sep 17, 2022, 6:41 PM UTC

vondur wrote: post #20

Can we really build batteries at the scale needed for this? I’m a bit skeptical.

I mean, that's what this study is about. There is extensive discussion of the cost, production, and technology trends of batteries in the full text.

Re: Rapid Green Energy Transition Will Likely Result in Trillions of Net Savings

#28

Post by tomohawk » Sat, Sep 17, 2022, 6:42 PM UTC

I'm willing to let the EU place their bet on this, and be the 2nd mover instead of the first one.

Early bird may get the worm, but the 2nd mouse gets the cheese.

Re: Rapid Green Energy Transition Will Likely Result in Trillions of Net Savings

#29

Post by lnsru » Sat, Sep 17, 2022, 6:43 PM UTC

I am just curious about manufacturing capacity of these green energy gadgets in Western World. When I look at the parts for my solar installation everything is made in Asia. My system is rather simple: 4-6 panels each ~400 Wp and stupid single phase inverter. That battery production isn’t a thing in the West is already well known fact. In my eyes this green energy transition totally depends on factories in Asia. And builds strong dependence since nothing can be made domestically (at least no mainstream solar panels/electronics in Germany).

Re: Rapid Green Energy Transition Will Likely Result in Trillions of Net Savings

#30

Post by dr_dshiv » Sat, Sep 17, 2022, 6:43 PM UTC

stormbrew wrote: post #24

sheepdestroyer wrote: post #18

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Isn't it too late for that now that the power imbalance afforded to Capital owners is so disproportionate? I think that's what transpired from Piketty's "Capital in the Twenty-First Century"

History is long, and capitalism as we know it is only a couple centuries old (and that's being generous). It's easy to forget that there was a before because it's very common to frame even old economic systems in modern terms, but things changing is the only real constant. There'll be an after too.

How do you define capitalism, I’m curious, in this context? What was it 200 years ago that made it different from 400 years ago?