111–120 of 260 posts
Personally, I wish it was as rewarding building or creating something as it is to invest in the stock market over the past decade. If you have capital it makes more sense to put it into stocks than opening a coffee shop or computer repair shop, etc. If the stock market stops paying out maybe we'll go back to trying to create value instead of profiting from value created by others.
Personally, I wish it was as rewarding building or creating something as it is to invest in the stock market over the past decade. If you have capital it makes more sense to put it into stocks than opening a coffee shop or computer repair shop, etc. If the stock market stops paying out maybe we'll go back to trying to create value instead of profiting from value created by others.
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You shouldn't read those headlines. Both the ones walking you off a cliff in increasingly devious ways the interviews with Warren Buffett saying buy and hold which is a pessimal strategy, and the headlines announcing x happened because y as if you should think y leads x. It did not, they don't know that, news blogs get a pass in telling people false causes after the fact, dude it's purely made up and it's a guessing…
Why is buy and hold a "pessimal strategy"?
If you let that $100k balance stay in VTSAX on Jan 3rd, you would be -19.15% and have $80,850 sitting there today. Granted in this example there aren't regular deposits going in so it really is just money parked there. If you are continually contributing money into a 401k or other tax deferred account, contributing as the market goes down is fine because you're averaging down with the market. Or maybe its not fine depending on your personal circumstances (i.e. going to retire soon or something like that).
https://www.cnbc.com/2016/05/04/druckenmiller-get-out-of-the...
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4W58zLwdDzM
https://www.cnbc.com/2015/11/03/stanley-druckenmiller-heres-...
https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/news/international/busi...
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Why is buy and hold a "pessimal strategy"?
For example, say you left a company and transferred a 401k balance into Vanguard and put it into VTSAX (total stock market ETF) with no ongoing deposits. Lets say you thought the market was going to go down and on Jan 3rd 2022 you yoinked out your entire balance which for the sake of easy math was exactly $100k (not take a withdrawal, just pull it from the ETF). Today you would still have $100k sitting there in a pla…
For those who don't know, Druckenmiller is also very well known for changing his mind the minute facts change which is one of the hallmarks of good trading.
This is the best comment in all. HN folks don't understand the purpose of this article. You think Druckenmiller is so bearish? for the next 30 yrs? Not a chance. He must have a huge short position on the S&P500, and he likes you to sell your stocks so he could cover at a lower level.
Druck is just known to change his opinion when the facts change or he comes to a new conclusion. There's some anecdote about him completely flipping on a position when going in and out on an elevator ride that I can't quite remember.
By the way, sideways means that the stock market is going nowhere long or short. IMO, currencies and commodities are a far better place to speculate.
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With dividends reinvested you get -25.096%, https://dqydj.com/dow-jones-return-calculator/ . S&P 500 is -3.745%.
So one of the worst long-term periods in history - the S&P was still ~50% better than cash. What else is a passive investor gonna do?
For example, how exactly would you plan on protecting yourself against wage increases? It's not like there's a futures market for wages.
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>So all players in the market are just selling everything across the market to the tune of -1.4% because FedEx is having issues? FedEx's issues is that their volume is down massively. High (nay, accelerating) rates of trade are the foundation of the modern economy. If trade starts to slow down, or, Lord forbid, decline , then yes that can have massive negative repercussions.
Based on the last few years of my (and a relatively wide friend circle) experiences with FedEx I wouldn't be surprised if they are just suffering from getting outcompeted by Amazon and others. If their internal logistics are as bad as what the customer-facing experience would lead me to believe, I worry for their future. Edit: completely subjective and armchair-quarterback-like opinion, of course.
Looks like this guy's been making these kind of predictions for at least the last 10 years: https://www.cnbc.com/2016/05/04/druckenmiller-get-out-of-the... https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4W58zLwdDzM https://www.cnbc.com/2015/11/03/stanley-druckenmiller-heres-... https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/news/international/busi...
https://priceonomics.com/the-trade-of-the-century-when-georg...
His streak was something like 25% or 30% over 30 years?
The tide is definitely going out. The Fed created a huge bubble and everyone knew it.
Fed Balance sheet at $9 trillion…