Prime time to raise money to build a society based off Logan’s Run to deal with everyone that won’t be able to afford to retire in that scenario
Reviews at work already feel like the carousel. Might as well extend that to other parts of society.
Stanley Druckenmiller warns the stock market will be ‘flat’ for an entire decade
51–60 of 260 posts
Re: Stanley Druckenmiller warns the stock market will be ‘flat’ for an entire decade
#52Quoted post unavailable.
Tell that to 1991 to 2010 Japan.
Re: Stanley Druckenmiller warns the stock market will be ‘flat’ for an entire decade
#53At this point, I’m expecting both stagflation and a flat market for years to come. Odd that mortgage rate is above 6%, inflation is high, layoffs are happening, and yet the White House is pretending it’s not a recession and won’t say the word.
Employment remains high on average.
Re: Stanley Druckenmiller warns the stock market will be ‘flat’ for an entire decade
#54> “There’s a high probability in my mind that the market, at best, is going to be kind of flat for 10 years, sort of like this ’66 to ’82 time period,” Is there a resource that has the chart between ’66 & ’82 so I can have a look at what it was like?
I played a bit with this: https://www.barchart.com/stocks/quotes/$DOWI/interactive-cha...
You can drag to scroll back for historical data.
Re: Stanley Druckenmiller warns the stock market will be ‘flat’ for an entire decade
#55> “There’s a high probability in my mind that the market, at best, is going to be kind of flat for 10 years, sort of like this ’66 to ’82 time period,” he said in an interview with Alex Karp, CEO of software and A.I. firm Palantir. Adjusting for inflation, the stock market was not "flat" during this period [0]. The DJIA, for example, closed at an effective price of 9,160.41 in January 1966 and closed at an effective…
You are correct, but to clarify, you are saying the value declined when adjusted for inflation. The DJIA average sat around 900 the about a decade, with the real value getting eaten away by the high inflation of the time.
Re: Stanley Druckenmiller warns the stock market will be ‘flat’ for an entire decade
#56And Michael Burry has been predicting crashes every few years since the 2008 one. And Bill Ackman predicted 'hell is coming' at the onset of the pandemic and made $2B [0]. And there were US Senators that also did possibly illegal things to pull money out of the market before the public knew about the pandemic. Outside of disclosures filed with the SEC, stock trading is anonymous yet they will have all sorts of headli…
You shouldn't read those headlines. Both the ones walking you off a cliff in increasingly devious ways the interviews with Warren Buffett saying buy and hold which is a pessimal strategy, and the headlines announcing x happened because y as if you should think y leads x. It did not, they don't know that, news blogs get a pass in telling people false causes after the fact, dude it's purely made up and it's a guessing game to train you to guess as it suits them. Plato's Cave.
Re: Stanley Druckenmiller warns the stock market will be ‘flat’ for an entire decade
#57> “There’s a high probability in my mind that the market, at best, is going to be kind of flat for 10 years, sort of like this ’66 to ’82 time period,” he said in an interview with Alex Karp, CEO of software and A.I. firm Palantir. Adjusting for inflation, the stock market was not "flat" during this period [0]. The DJIA, for example, closed at an effective price of 9,160.41 in January 1966 and closed at an effective…
You are correct, but to clarify, you are saying the value declined when adjusted for inflation. The DJIA average sat around 900 the about a decade, with the real value getting eaten away by the high inflation of the time.
> You are correct, but to clarify, you are saying the value declined when adjusted for inflation.
That's what I meant by "adjusting for inflation" and "65% decline". Apologies if that was worded confusingly.
Re: Stanley Druckenmiller warns the stock market will be ‘flat’ for an entire decade
#58Earlier quoted context omitted.
Presumably dividends would balance it out though.
Dividends would balance out a 65% drop during the same period, how so?
A 65% drop in price over 17 years is "only" about 6% per year. The S&P500 annual dividend yield during 1966-1982 was not much less than 6%, especially during the latter half of that period.
If you look at an inflation-adjusted total return chart (as opposed to just price), the actual drop in investment value was much smaller. I think "flat" isn't a terrible way to describe it.
https://www.multpl.com/s-p-500-dividend-yield
http://www.simplestockinvesting.com/SP500-historical-real-to...
Re: Stanley Druckenmiller warns the stock market will be ‘flat’ for an entire decade
#59And Michael Burry has been predicting crashes every few years since the 2008 one. And Bill Ackman predicted 'hell is coming' at the onset of the pandemic and made $2B [0]. And there were US Senators that also did possibly illegal things to pull money out of the market before the public knew about the pandemic. Outside of disclosures filed with the SEC, stock trading is anonymous yet they will have all sorts of headli…
And every time Burry shorted the top. Looks like this time he actually hit the long term reversal instead of local high.
So, he was always waiting for this and this time he gets green numbers big time.
Re: Stanley Druckenmiller warns the stock market will be ‘flat’ for an entire decade
#60> “There’s a high probability in my mind that the market, at best, is going to be kind of flat for 10 years, sort of like this ’66 to ’82 time period,” Is there a resource that has the chart between ’66 & ’82 so I can have a look at what it was like?
Just found this article:
https://awealthofcommonsense.com/2014/06/1966-1982-stock-mar...